Steve manion effective training Limited

Steve manion effective training Limited Steve Manion Effective Training Limited (SMET) is a Supply Chain Management Training company based i We can offer bespoke courses.

Steve Manion Effective Training Limited (SMET) is a Supply Chain Management Training company based in Aylesham East Kent UK.

14/08/2026

Latest supply chain thinking on how the geo political climate is impacting supply chains

GM Manages Supply Risk with a Major Strategy Shift

by Abe Eshkenazi CEO of the ASCM

As the Iran war drags on, companies must grapple with sluggish movement throughthe Strait of Hormuz, high fuel costs and eroding global security. In combination with punishing tariffs, the current marketplace is compelling many supply chain organizations to drastically overhaul their supply chain risk strategies.
Hyundai, Kia, Toyota, and many othershave experienced significant parts shortages recently, due to conflict in Iran and Ukraine, as well as lingering effects ofthe pandemic. In April, “Rising raw-material costs, shortages of aluminum, resins and other basic supplies” led Toyota to significantly downgrade its projected profits and predict that “production will fall by about 200,000 vehicles,” per Bloomberg. The intervening months have not lessened automakers’ worries.
For General Motors, the shortages have become so critical that the company has now established a $4.5 billion safety net designed to keep critical components flowing, reports The Wall Street Journal. This decision, intended to help GMmanage slowdowns and stoppages caused by extenuating circumstances, “aims to give suppliers enough capital to maintainproduction and potentially stockpile parts. GM in turn can keep its assembly lines moving amid supply chain disruptions, without tying up large amounts of capital.”
The move demonstrates the automaker’s determination to avoid a repeat of past struggles, including a post-pandemic semiconductor shortage that cost billions after the company was “forced to sporadically idle assembly plants across North America,” the Journal continues.
This marks a significant change in risk strategy: Instead of waiting for specific orders of critical components, GM is pre-funding their purchase in partnership with management firm Procura, as well as a banking syndicate led by JPMorgan Chase and Banco Santander. Importantly, allpartners are bound to the contingency plan. “GM will pay interest and an agreed-upon premium on parts bought through this arrangement, as well as pay an annual fee on any unused facility portion. For accounting purposes, the automaker will record the prepayments as assets and treat each purchase as unsecured debt,” explains CBT News.
For suppliers, this arrangement is as much a display of GM’s leverage as it is a lifeline. It requires them to hold dedicated safety stock exclusively for GM — restricting how they allocate capacity to other clients — or risk losing their contracts. Yet, in an increasingly volatile market, trading some operational control for guaranteed capital and steady demand is likely a smart financial move.
The challenges of an evolving industry
As global shocks force OEMs to rethink working capital and inventory strategies, supply chain leaders must adapt quickly to stay resilient.

12/08/2026

An insightful piece by the CEO of the ASCM

The Hidden warning signs of supplier strain

by Abe Ashkenazi CEO of the ASCM

Global supply bases are navigating an unusually volatile marketplace where intersecting trade and geopolitical shifts continuously inflate the cost of doing business. The added burdens — whether rising compliance, freight or auditing fees — often flow down the chain, leaving smaller suppliers to absorb the inflated operating expenses. While these vendors may still deliver orders and pass audits, beneath the surface, cost pressures are quietly eroding their long-term operational viability.

According to a new report by the Harvard Business Review, before a supplier fails outright, subtle operational shifts will signal growing strain. Supply chain leaders who look beyond standard audit metrics can spot partner distress early by watching for these key warning signs:

Declining innovation: Suppliers bring forward fewer product improvements, process changes or sustainability initiatives, choosing instead to focus on baseline requirements.

Reduced discretionary investment: Routine compliance standards are met, but there are fewer capital expenditures for new systems, employee training, advanced certifications and facility upgrades.

Selective commercial participation: Suppliers stop bidding on new contracts and decline complex, customized or low-margin orders.

Eroded operational capacity: Maintenance is deferred, equipment upgrades are delayed, staff sizes are trimmed or production lines are closed under the guise of efficiency measures.

Loss of service resilience: Daily demand targets are fulfilled, but there is much less flexibility to handle order surges, urgent disruptions or logistics delays.

Shifting network presence: Suppliers exit specific product categories or geographic regions, merge with larger competitors or quietly disappear from key market segments.

“Supplier distress rarely announces itself all at once,” HBR warns. “The danger is mistaking today’s compliance for tomorrow’s resilience. The companies that will build stronger supply chains are those that learn to see supplier distress early — and respond before a valued partner has already begun to disappear.”

Overcoming these hidden-tier blind spots requires deep, end-to-end operational awareness. In ASCM’s supply chain visibility whitepaper, proven strategies are outlined for strengthening supplier collaboration, overcoming liabilities, strengthening governance across operations and protecting multi-tiered networks. Equipped with this real-time insight, you can then act on the indicators before a partner reaches a breaking point. Effective collaborative interventions include faster payment terms, shared compliance costs, streamlined audits and safe feedback channels. All of these steps can help your suppliers remain viable before capacity loss is irreversible.

Strengthen long-term network resilience with strategic leadership

Losing a specialized supplier carries consequences far beyond a single open account; it gradually erodes network optionality. This then drives over-reliance on a few large firms, weakens innovation, shrinks supply-base diversity and heightens systemic vulnerability. Navigating these complex dynamics and building resilient, end-to-end networks requires deep operational knowledge and strategic leadership.

07/08/2026

Latest supply chain issue from the ASCM

The Hidden Warning Signs of Supplier Strain

By: Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE

Global supply bases are navigating an unusually volatile marketplace where intersecting trade and geopolitical shifts continuously inflate the cost of doing business. The added burdens — whether rising compliance, freight or auditing fees — often flow down the chain, leaving smaller suppliers to absorb the inflated operating expenses. While these vendors may still deliver orders and pass audits, beneath the surface, cost pressures are quietly eroding their long-term operational viability.
According to a new report by the Harvard Business Review, before a supplier fails outright, subtle operational shifts will signal growing strain. Supply chain leaders who look beyond standard audit metrics can spot partner distress early by watching for these key warning signs:
* Declining innovation: Suppliers bring forward fewer product improvements, process changes or sustainability initiatives, choosing instead to focus on baseline requirements.
* Reduced discretionary investment: Routine compliance standards are met, but there are fewer capital expenditures for new systems, employee training, advanced certifications and facility upgrades.
* Selective commercial participation: Suppliers stop bidding on new contracts and decline complex, customized or low-margin orders.
* Eroded operational capacity: Maintenance is deferred, equipment upgrades are delayed, staff sizes are trimmed or production lines are closed under the guise of efficiency measures.
* Loss of service resilience: Daily demand targets are fulfilled, but there is much less flexibility to handle order surges, urgent disruptions or logistics delays.
* Shifting network presence: Suppliers exit specific product categories or geographic regions, merge with larger competitors or quietly disappear from key market segments.
“Supplier distress rarely announces itself all at once,” HBR warns. “The danger is mistaking today’s compliance for tomorrow’s resilience. The companies that will build stronger supply chains are those that learn to see supplier distress early — and respond before a valued partner has already begun to disappear.”
Overcoming these hidden-tier blind spots requires deep, end-to-end operational awareness. In ASCM’s supply chain visibility whitepaper, proven strategies are outlined for strengthening supplier collaboration, overcoming liabilities, strengthening governance across operations and protecting multi-tiered networks. Equipped with this real-time insight, you can then act on the indicators before a partner reaches a breaking point. Effective collaborative interventions include faster payment terms, shared compliance costs, streamlined audits and safe feedback channels. All of these steps can help your suppliers remain viable before capacity loss is irreversible.
Strengthen long-term network resilience with strategic leadership
Losing a specialized supplier carries consequences far beyond a single open account; it gradually erodes network optionality. This then drives over-reliance on a few large firms, weakens innovation, shrinks supply-base diversity and heightens systemic vulnerability. Navigating these complex dynamics and building resilient, end-to-end networks requires deep operational knowledge and strategic leadership.

07/08/2026

At the THE CROWN INN AT FINGLESHAM for business breakfast event

25/07/2026

Have Modern Supply Chains Outgrown Seasonal Planning?

By: Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE
CEO of the ASCM

It wasn’t too long ago that supply chain professionals planned imports and inventory according to the expectations of seasonal demands: chocolate at Halloween, pencils for back to school and beach umbrellas for summer sun. But with unpredictable disruptions now the norm, seasonality is being turned on its head, and flexibility is a must — every day of the year.
“Preparing a supply chain for seasonal demand requires year-round planning and agility to manage the effects of forecast bias and accuracy that fall outside normal levels,” notes Supply & Demand Chain Executive. “The most resilient supply chains don't prepare for peak seasons as isolated events; they continuously adjust operations year-round to remain agile when demand surges.”
Tariffs, the Iran war and increased fuel costs have plagued supply chains in recent years, so much so that companies are no longer dependent on traditional seasonal ocean shipping patterns at the Port of Los Angeles, for example. Instead, they are “moving cargo whenever there is a favorable opening,” reports Supply Chain Dive. Case in point: Fluctuating transportation costs due to the Iran war have created uncertainty for both import and export schedules. Many retailers and manufacturers frontloaded cargo to “hedge against ongoing supply chain uncertainty, prompting an early peak season.”
Some good news: Modern tech, such as pick-and-palletizing robots and cycle-count drones, provides capacity support for unexpected surges in demand and lessens reliance on repetitive manual processes. And AI-powered software that offers better prediction capabilities helps organizations create dynamic forecasts and “analyze scenarios, evaluate sourcing alternatives, assess tariff impacts and respond to disruptions using the same underlying planning data,” per Freightwaves.
For instance, after the unexpected early peak season, cargo numbers at the Port of Los Angeles stayed strong in June. But beyond July, the forecast is more difficult to make as “companies adapt to changing conditions in real time,” Supply Chain Dive continues. In response, some businesses are running simulations on multiple potential scenarios simultaneously — such as new tariffs, higher fuel prices, alternative suppliers and inventory scenarios — and then creating alternative plans.
Success during unpredictable peak cycles isn't achieved through rigid planning; it requires continuous operational agility. Supply chain organizations must be equipped to detect, reroute and rebalance resources on the fly to keep goods moving. This ongoing discipline — calibrating demand models and running alternative scenarios month after month — fosters an adaptable, highly synchronized organization built to endure continuous disruption.

Continuing professional development is one way to to keep awareness of current trends and advances in technology for supply chains

19/06/2026

Risk management is one of my favourite topics so very interested in this post from the ASCM

Do Blind Spots Threaten Your Deep-Tier Supply Chain?
By. Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE

Instability in the supply chain is nothing new; we’ve been battling the aftereffects of the pandemic, multiple wars, natural disasters and tariffs for years now. This week, our attention turns to how deep-seated security threats continue to pe*****te global networks — quietly driving food insecurity, population displacement and steep price hikes far upstream.
The World Economic Forum reports the following alarming realities:
* Localized insurgencies, armed banditry and farmer-pastoralist conflicts are severely disrupting Africa’s agricultural supply chains and leaving 33 million people facing severe food insecurity.
* In Latin America, illicit networks and drug traffickers have deeply pe*****ted legitimate trade, contaminating global supply chains by laundering illegally mined gold and infiltrating major agricultural exports.
* Armed groups and local insurgents in Southeast Asia have embedded themselves within the clean energy supply chain, extorting mining operations and taxing critical raw materials.
All of these defense breaches highlight a single major issue: the worsening security situation in emerging economies — which are often starting, processing or transit points for global supply chains. Of course, as upstream security becomes more of a blind spot for supply chain leaders, the effects are widespread, from skyrocketing prices to an uptick in drug trafficking.
As one disturbing example, when Ecuador became a major co***ne transit route, “traffickers infiltrated its banana, shrimp and cacao industries, resulting in 63 workers killed by criminal groups in 2022 alone” and a 400% increase in shipping container contamination.
It’s up to supply chain leaders to build infrastructure that prevents bad actors from disrupting and tainting the entire value chain. WEF suggests the following steps for increasing resilience: First, we must look beyond conventional governance by embracing a multifaceted approach centered on visibility, coalitions, legitimacy and foresight. This process must not be limited to direct suppliers; instead, organizations should “formalize partnerships with field intermediaries, such as regional researchers, humanitarian agencies and investigative journalists” to understand the potential for security breaches.
Visibility yields myriad benefits, including timelier, data-driven decisions; identification of potential bottlenecks; optimized inventory levels; and more effective allocation of resources. Furthermore, because sharing intelligence lowers risk, building effective coalitions ensures that “buyers, intermediaries, producers and local actors develop shared accountability” along volatile trade corridors.
Build resilience by reducing risk
“Resilience is not just about risk management — it’s about gaining a competitive advantage through agility, balance and culture,” writes ASCM Editor-in-Chief Elizabeth Rennie for our Insights Blog. “But building resilience is an ongoing process: As technology evolves, so will the threats and opportunities facing supply chains. Companies that embrace continuous improvement and invest in the right tools and strategies will be best positioned to navigate the complexities of the future.”

24/04/2026

Many people involved with supply chain management have been following the developments in the Middle East
ASCM CEO Abe Eshkenazi gives his analysis

“Despite talk about the end of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the war rages on. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to cargo ships and oil tankers, delaying shipments and raising prices on everything from plastic packaging to medical supplies.

Since the conflict began, there has been a 97% decrease in the number of ships passing through the Strait. The logistics of moving goods has become a balancing act of cancellations and rerouting, as many carriers refuse to enter the region due to safety concerns and the sharp increase in insurance premiums. Experts expect the cost of oil to remain at more than $100 per barrel for at least another month, possibly reaching $115 by this summer.

Of course, this affects much more than gas prices. Packaging Insights notes that the disposable plastic wrapping for perishables also requires oil when manufacturing. “Fragile food categories such as produce, eggs and proteins are especially exposed because they rely on fast and consistent movement with minimal buffering. When flow is interrupted, small delays can lead to spoilage or compromised product integrity.”

Pharmaceuticals are also at risk. According to CBS News, the United States gets half of its generic medications from India, one of the many nations that “rely heavily on the Strait for medication transport.” There has already been a 25% drop in the export of drugs — most notably high-volume generics including blood pressure medications, statins and antibiotics. Furthermore, temperature-sensitive medications that are usually shipped via air are being affected, with many of the region’s airports shuttered.

Pharmaceutical companies also rely on the waterway to ship petrochemicals used in solvents, coatings, IV bags, syringes and even condoms. Karex, the world’s largest condom manufacturer, is planning to raise prices 20-30%, per Reuters: “Since the conflict began, Karex has seen costs increase for everything from synthetic rubber and nitrite [to] aluminum foils and silicone oil.”

The nitrogen used to stabilize synthetic rubber and the nitrates that fuel crop growth both rely on a steady flow of ammonia-based feedstocks. Consequently, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has also triggered a bottleneck in the global supply of fertilizers. According to the World Economic Forum, the global price tag for logistics and energy-dependent inputs began with an immediate 15% baseline increase in crude oil. This translates to a compounding landed cost surcharge for agricultural inputs that must now be rerouted around the Arabian Peninsula. These delays are likely to cause significant yield losses and sustained volatility in food commodity prices.

Shipping across the Strait of Hormuz may never return to normal, predicts The New York Times: “No matter what happens next, Iran will not forget how easy it is to strangle shipping through the strait, meaning that energy companies and consumers must prepare for a very different future.”

10/04/2026

With attention fixed on the return of the Artemis mission
The CEO of the ASCM Abe Eshkenazi discusses the supply chain complexities of the mission.

“Forget “one small step” — Artemis II is a giant leap made up of thousands and thousands of steps, each painstakingly orchestrated. And while the world watches the astronauts make history, those of us in supply chain know the real magic is happening behind the scenes, with dedicated partners synchronizing one of the most complex handoffs in history.

In fact, the mission leveraged the expertise and labor of more than 2,700 suppliers — a vast network of international partners working together toward top-tier standardization and visibility. “One of Artemis’s most critical tools is its digital thread,” Forbes reports. “This is a continuous record that links design, engineering, manufacturing, testing and integration. Every component has a documented history, and every change is tracked and verified. This level of visibility ensures that ... decisions happen faster and problems can be pinpointed and resolved quickly.”

Contributors to this impressive supply chain include the following:

Lockheed Martin managed the advanced propulsion systems, avionics, ground testing and precision docking capabilities.
Northrop Grumman supplied critical safety systems, including the launch abort and attitude control motors.
The high-pressure helium tanks for Orion's flotation system were produced by Aerojet Rocketdyne.
Constellium manufactured the “tip-to-tail" aluminum, which took more than 20 years of research and development to perfect.
The astronaut’s bespoke spacesuits came from David Clark Company and are designed to sustain life for up to six days.
Rayotek provided the glass for the windows, which are several layers thick to protect against micrometeoroids, bacteria and mold.
Seventeen unique switch controls were manufactured by Otto Engineering, which, coincidentally, was founded in 1961 — the same year the first human went into space.
Today, space travel is advancing so rapidly that it’s actually starting to strain global networks. “Many suppliers were originally structured around low-volume, high-cost government programs with long development timelines. The current market demands faster production and much higher output,” per Space News. However, government demand is notoriously unreliable, and many suppliers hesitate to increase inventory without clear, long-term viability. Along with persistent workforce shortages and rigorous testing requirements, extremely long lead times are inevitable. As the gap between government standards and commercial speed continues to widen, the industry’s resilience will depend on leaders who can synchronize these conflicting demands with precision.

From mission control to career control

While few of us will ever manage a lunar payload, the core principles of synchronization and traceability are exactly what define high-performing supply chains here on Earth. Indeed, the success of Artemis II reminds us that the most valuable assets in any network are the supply chain professionals who make it all possible.”

06/03/2026

Sudden War Upends Middle East Shipping Routes

From the CEO - ASCM
Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE

6 March 2026
The abrupt outbreak of war in Iran is first and foremost a human catastrophe, but the hostilities have also triggered a secondary crisis within our global supply chains. Some disruptions are immediate; others are deep-seated fractures that will take weeks to fully manifest.

First, traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is at a standstill following military strikes on an Iranian warship off Sri Lanka, reports Reuters. The closure of this vital passage effectively severs a primary artery of the global energy market, as more than 200 ships are at anchor in open waters. Further, Qatar is shutting down its gas liquefaction and won't resume normal production or exports for at least a month. Iraq also cut its oil production in response to the conflict, and Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are struggling to adapt.

The Persian Gulf nations supply vast quantities of the world’s crude oil, fuels, natural gas and fertilizer feedstocks, per Bloomberg: “Almost all of the region’s output has to pass through Hormuz, making it a choke point for a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, and half of the global seaborne trade of sulfur.” Traffic has plummeted 95%, and any ships that are managing to pass through have turned off their location-tracking devices to avoid being targeted in a future attack. This widespread disablement or signal jamming has left the Strait in a “digital fog,” Bloomberg continues.

About 200 million barrels of oil pass through the area on a typical day, and the stark decrease in supply is having a huge effect. “Global crude oil prices — already elevated due to the risk of war — have shot up more than 10% since the United States and Israel attacked Iran,” notes NPR, and natural gas prices in Asia and Europe have risen even more dramatically. Some countries have oil stockpiles, and some oil producers can reroute their product to other ports. “But those changes can't make up all of the shortfall,” NPR continues, as storage facilities in the Middle East fill up. In addition, market volatility is triggering a literal tug-of-war between continents, according to The Wall Street Journal. This was underscored this week as a liquefied natural gas tanker diverted from its European heading toward a higher-bidding Asian market, signaling a dangerous period of instability for regions that can't compete on price.

A surge in costs isn’t the only domino effect experts have concerns about. “Pharmaceuticals from India, semiconductors from Asia and oil-derived products like fertilizers that come from the Middle East” are all at risk, reports the AP. Plus, closed airspace in Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Qatar and the UAE has “stranded tens of thousands of people and cargo.”

We live in a VUCA world and supply chain professionals need to risk assess supply chains and implement anti Brittle/ anti Fragile practices.

16/01/2026

Latest analysis of the impact of Tariffs

From the CEO of the ASCM
Abe Eshkenazi, CSCP, CPA, CAE

For nearly a year now, tariffs have been causing a strategic paradox for global supply chains. Our industry must build long-term resilience within an environment of total unpredictability — and try to maintain optimism while constantly bracing for severe disruption. ASCM has been following along with our tariff tracker, documenting these trade policies and what they mean for supply chain organizations around the world. Now, brand new research by ASCM and CNBC reveals a stark conclusion: The tariffs have levied a significant toll on corporate stability, workforce growth and broader economic sentiment.

In the study, 32% of supply chain managers report layoffs at their companies, amid a hiring recession that is typified by rising long-term unemployment and anemic job creation. In fact, employers cut more than 1.2 million supply chain jobs in 2025, a 58% increase over the previous year. This also includes a staggering 317% year-over-year increase in job cuts in warehousing — a spike also driven by the desire to automate repetitive tasks with AI and robotics.

Our research shows that much of the downsizing is directly attributed to lack of predictability since the tariff roller coaster began. A significant 65% of ASCM-CNBC survey respondents report at least a 10-15% increase in costs in 2025, which is reshaping budgets, strategy and business viability. An additional 34% of those surveyed say their costs increased by more than 15%.

The White House has promised refunds to businesses for what they’ve spent on tariffs, though the matter is still being reviewed by the Supreme Court. “More than 1,000 businesses, including big names like Costco, Revlon and Goodyear, have already sued the Trump Administration. Companies paid some $133.5 billion in International Emergency Economic Powers Act-based tariffs through December 14,” Forbes reports. However, even if some money is returned, it will never be enough to make up for the time spent on paperwork, costs for customs bonds, deficit in interest-bearing accounts and even interest paid to predatory lenders, CNBC continues. That money is just a “tax dragging down the supply chain.”

As I told the outlet: “Navigating the tariffs is an administrative burden. We’re spending a huge amount of time tracking rule changes, validating codes and trying to find the most effective way to operate in the short term without a long-term plan. ... This isn’t just about resilience and reacting to a court ruling; it’s about having certainty in the U.S. economy and what kind of pricing models we can plan on.”

Upskilling as a sign of loyalty

Beyond the personal toll, workforce reductions also strip supply chains of vital institutional wisdom. As I said to CNBC, you cannot resource or requalify staff overnight; losing specialized knowledge creates a long-term deficit.

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