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Mercury Global Your fast, reliable and easy way to move money anywhere in the world. Mercury has now brought our wealth of knowledge and experience back to South Africa.

Mercury is a trusted global currency specialist offering a fresh, secure alternative to banks with better rates and lower fees. Founded (by South Africans) in the City of London in 2007, Mercury FX International is a trusted global currency specialist offering businesses and individuals a fresh, secure alternative to the banks, offering better rates and lower charges. Our Hong Kong Office opened its doors in 2012 and has been trading well ever since, with our cross-border RMB service and the ability to hedge forward commercial exposure proving successful with the Asian market. Our aim is to help businesses & individuals move money internationally more quickly and at more competitive rates than the banks can. We offer our clients bank-beating exchange rates and lower transaction fees on all international transactions.

Sterling and the rand both had good weeks, and neither can take much credit for it.UK growth beat forecasts for a fourth...
16/10/2026

Sterling and the rand both had good weeks, and neither can take much credit for it.

UK growth beat forecasts for a fourth month and the SARB governor signalled tight policy until 2028. Both are real supports.

But most of this week's gains came from a softer dollar, as hot US inflation data sent investors into bonds rather than into the currency. Sterling is pressing its October ceiling at 1.33, and the rand is near its 16.40 floor.

Two fiscal events now decide what holds: South Africa's budget statement on 21 October and the UK Budget on 28 October.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

The dollar hit an 18-month high on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday morning it had given it all back.US core inflation r...
15/10/2026

The dollar hit an 18-month high on Wednesday afternoon. By Thursday morning it had given it all back.

US core inflation rose 0.3% in September, a tenth above forecast, and the odds of a Fed hike this month jumped from about one in five to roughly one in two.

Then the bond market reversed the move. A sell-off in chip and AI stocks across Asia sent investors into Treasuries, pulling the 10-year yield about 20bp off its post-data high.

Sterling and the rand are back near pre-CPI levels. The rate path underneath them is steeper than it was on Tuesday, and today's US retail sales at 13:30 BST will show which reading holds.

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https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

South Africa's mining output fell 12.7% in August. The rand firmed anyway. Platinum, iron ore and coal all fell sharply,...
14/10/2026

South Africa's mining output fell 12.7% in August.

The rand firmed anyway. Platinum, iron ore and coal all fell sharply, the steepest annual drop since 2022. Yet USD/ZAR slipped back below 16.50, and Tuesday's government bond auctions cleared at lower yields. The message is that the rand is trading on the dollar and on oil, not on its own output.

That makes today's US core inflation print at 13:30 BST the most important number for rand exposure this week. A soft reading opens a path towards 16.40. A firm one, with Brent above $106, leaves little domestic support to slow a move back towards 16.70.

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https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

Monday's oil relief lasted about a morning.Brent dipped below $103 in early Asian trade on the Russian diesel deal, then...
13/10/2026

Monday's oil relief lasted about a morning.

Brent dipped below $103 in early Asian trade on the Russian diesel deal, then climbed to $107 as Russia kept striking Ukraine's energy infrastructure and Riyadh came under fresh attack. It sits near $105 this morning.

The rand followed it straight back above 16.50, and the dollar closed at its highest level since April 2025 without any help from Treasury yields.

The lesson for importers: a supply deal is only as good as the ceasefire around it, and this one broke within days.

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https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

Oil spent the weekend weighing missiles against diesel, and diesel won.Houthi strikes hit Riyadh's main airport twice an...
12/10/2026

Oil spent the weekend weighing missiles against diesel, and diesel won.

Houthi strikes hit Riyadh's main airport twice and a drone struck a tanker off Oman. Yet Brent opened lower near $103, because a US licence for roughly 22.5 million barrels of Russian diesel goes straight at the product shortage that has driven prices this autumn.

USD/ZAR has pushed through 16.50 as a result, and sterling holds near 1.324 after three Bank of England policymakers sounded the same hawkish note on Friday.

The relief is real at the pump. The risk, though, has moved closer to Saudi soil.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

Oil spent Thursday pricing escalation and Friday morning pricing a promise.Attacks on nine tankers around Hormuz in a we...
09/10/2026

Oil spent Thursday pricing escalation and Friday morning pricing a promise.

Attacks on nine tankers around Hormuz in a week, and hurricane shut-ins in the US Gulf, took Brent above $105. Then President Trump said the US would not strike Iran before the midterms, and half the move unwound overnight.

Sterling held its three-month floor near 1.318, and USD/ZAR has slipped to 16.52 even after a 4.3% slump in South African factory output.

The pledge removes a date, not a risk. Reports of prepared strike plans followed within hours, and the premium beyond 3 November is still there.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

Oil fell below $100 yesterday. By this morning it was back above $101.That round trip is the story of the week so far. B...
07/10/2026

Oil fell below $100 yesterday. By this morning it was back above $101.

That round trip is the story of the week so far. Barrels are flowing through Hormuz at or above pre-war volumes, yet the price still carries the cost of getting them out: escorts, insurance and freight near $1 million a day per tanker.

Sterling and the rand rallied on the dip and have already given part of it back. Tonight's $42bn 10-year Treasury auction and the Fed's September minutes will show whether the bond market lets that relief return.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

US 10-year yields just hit their highest since 2002. The Nasdaq closed at a record the same day.Both cannot be right for...
06/10/2026

US 10-year yields just hit their highest since 2002. The Nasdaq closed at a record the same day.

Both cannot be right for long. Bond markets are pricing sticky inflation and heavy government borrowing; equities are pricing an AI boom that outruns both.

For FX, the split matters more than either headline. The dollar has paused near 102 rather than turned, which leaves sterling and the rand looking steadier than their fundamentals.

If equities give way first, the currencies most exposed to risk appetite will feel it before anyone else.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

South Africa is about to pay more for fuel than ever before, and the rand is no longer helping.Through September a firme...
05/10/2026

South Africa is about to pay more for fuel than ever before, and the rand is no longer helping.

Through September a firmer currency offset part of the oil shock at the pump. That cushion was gone by month-end as USD/ZAR climbed towards 16.70.

Every move in the exchange rate now feeds straight into transport, food and input costs, with inflation already at 4.4% and the Reserve Bank signalling rates on hold for around a year.

For businesses paying in dollars, the open question is how much of that pass-through they can absorb.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

The 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% yesterday for the first time since 1998, and sterling fell with it.That is the part wo...
02/10/2026

The 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% yesterday for the first time since 1998, and sterling fell with it.

That is the part worth pausing on. Higher yields normally attract capital. When a currency weakens alongside its own rising yields, investors are being paid for risk, not rewarded for returns.

Oil back above $102 and a dollar near 18-month highs did the rest: the pound slipped to a three-month low near 1.32 and the rand lost 1.5% in a day.

Today's US payrolls report decides whether that pressure builds into the weekend or eases.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

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