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Mercury Global

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Mercury Global

Your fast, reliable and easy way to move money anywhere in the world. Mercury has now brought our wealth of knowledge and experience back to South Africa.

Mercury is a trusted global currency specialist offering a fresh, secure alternative to banks with better rates and lower fees. Founded (by South Africans) in the City of London in 2007, Mercury FX International is a trusted global currency specialist offering businesses and individuals a fresh, secure alternative to the banks, offering better rates and lower charges. Our Hong Kong Office opened i

ts doors in 2012 and has been trading well ever since, with our cross-border RMB service and the ability to hedge forward commercial exposure proving successful with the Asian market. Our aim is to help businesses & individuals move money internationally more quickly and at more competitive rates than the banks can. We offer our clients bank-beating exchange rates and lower transaction fees on all international transactions.

03/09/2026

US private hiring came in at 38,000 last month, the weakest since January. The market's odds on a Fed hike barely moved.

That is the tell. The hawkish case in front of the Fed this month does not rest on the labour market. It rests on Brent settling above $95 for the first time since late July, after US strikes around the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian retaliation against bases in Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait.

So the front end holds two-thirds of a hike, the ten-year sits near a three-year high, and gold has bounced off a four-week low anyway. Rising nominal yields alongside a rising gold price is a debasement bid, not a rate bid.

The rand has taken the other side of it. USD/ZAR closed Wednesday near 16.05 and trades around 16.02 this morning, most of the Hormuz weekend recovered on external flow alone, with South African fuel prices raised sharply from 2 September and the SARB decision still a coin flip.

Today's claims and services numbers are the last read before Friday's payrolls.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

02/09/2026

US factories cooled in August. The September hike bet went up anyway.

The ISM headline missed at 54.6, employment slipped to 51.2 and new orders fell three points. The one subindex that mattered, prices paid, did not move from 71.1. Hike odds for this month firmed toward 70%, and the ten-year is at 4.80%, its highest since January 2025.

The read is that this Fed is being driven by the price line rather than the activity line. For anyone carrying dollar exposure into Friday's payrolls, that changes which number to watch.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

01/09/2026

Rising rates and rising oil almost never point the same way. This week they do.

A Federal Reserve that spent Friday convincing markets it may still hike in September now has Brent back near $90 to reinforce the case, after Washington named Iran's main crude export terminal a military target. The dollar is holding its firmest tone in weeks and the ten-year is pressing toward 5%.

For an importer, the awkward part is the alignment: the currency and the cost line are being pushed the same way at once, and Friday's US payrolls will decide how far it runs.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

31/08/2026

The rand spent August earning a six-month high. It took two sessions to start giving it back.

Two things carried it: a soft dollar and gold near a three-month high. On Friday, Fed Chair Warsh said underlying inflation has not meaningfully improved, and the market moved September hike odds from 35% to 57%. Gold fell more than 3%. The dollar posted its best day in a month.

Then on Sunday, US forces struck Iranian rocket launchers preparing to mine the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent jumped about 5%.

South Africa imports its energy and exports its gold. Both channels turned against it inside 48 hours, and USD/ZAR is back above 16.15.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

28/08/2026

Today, one speech decides how the dollar trades into September.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh steps onto the Jackson Hole stage this afternoon with long-end Treasury yields near two-decade highs and the market betting on a neutral tone. That consensus is exactly what makes a surprise costly.

For sterling and the rand, both riding a softer dollar for a fortnight, the afternoon carries more than the morning's quiet levels suggest. A hawkish read extends the dollar's bid; a dovish one reopens the runway.

The detail worth your time is not the speech, but how little room a market priced for neutral has left itself if Warsh leans either way.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

27/08/2026

Nvidia cleared the year's highest bar overnight. The bond market spent the same session pricing the opposite.

A blowout quarter and a raised outlook revived the AI trade and lifted equity futures. But Wednesday's hot US inflation print pushed yields and the dollar higher, and Jackson Hole opens today with inflation, not relief, setting the tone.

Equities are pricing accelerating growth; bonds are pricing a Fed that may have to tighten. Both cannot be right for long, and for anyone carrying dollar, sterling or rand exposure, that gap is where the next move sits.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

26/08/2026

Brent has fallen seven per cent in three sessions, and not one barrel of supply changed hands to do it.

What moved was the risk premium. Reports of an Iran-Oman maritime corridor through Hormuz did what a week of sanctions headlines could not, and the inflation trade has been unwinding ever since.

The knock-on is already visible: gilt yields under five per cent, the rand at a six-month high, US ten-year yields ten basis points off their peak.

None of that is domestic. It reverses as fast as it arrived if the corridor talks stall.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

25/08/2026

The toughest sanctions in history landed on Iran yesterday. Oil fell anyway.

Markets sold the announcement, judging enough crude still moves through Hormuz to keep deflating the risk premium. Brent slipped 2.5% to around $92 even as Washington threatened Iran's buyers and warned it could sanction a major financial institution.

Meanwhile the dollar sits near multi-month lows, sterling holds a six-month high, and the rand hovers at the 16 handle, all resting on a US fiscal and rate story rather than anything domestic.

The real test is Friday, when Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole address into a bond market the Treasury is now spending its cash balance to calm.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

24/08/2026

The rand broke through 16 to the dollar this morning, and not one of the reasons for it is South African.

Gold near $4,639 after a third straight weekly gain, a dollar pinned near multi-month lows by the Treasury's doubled buyback, and oil easing ahead of today's Iran sanctions announcement. Three external supports, all holding at once.

Domestically the picture is less flattering. July inflation cooled to 4.3% on fuel base effects that are about to unwind, core accelerated for a fifth month to 4.2%, and the Reserve Bank meets on 23 September with the market split.

At 15.99 the rand sits within about 36 cents of its 52-week best. Every cent of that has been imported.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

21/08/2026

Oil just reminded the market who actually sets the inflation premium, and it isn't the Fed or the Treasury.

Fresh US sanctions on Iran pushed crude to a four-week high this week, and within two sessions long yields had climbed back through the buyback the Treasury announced to cap them. Equities slipped from record territory, gold and crypto stayed bid, and the dollar's three-month-low break stalled rather than extended.

The read worth your time is that the fiscal and monetary arms are now pulling against a third force neither controls. For energy importers, the rand and sterling among them, that premium lands on the currency and the inflation outlook at once.

Read the full below
https://mercury.global/insights/daily-brief

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Opening Hours

Monday	8:30am - 5:30pm
Tuesday	8:30am - 5:30pm
Wednesday	8:30am - 5:30pm
Thursday	8:30am - 5:30pm
Friday	8:30am - 5:30pm

Website

https://www.mercury.global/, https://www.linkedin.com/company/mercuryfxglobal/, https://www.youtube.com/@mercuryglobal65

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