07/05/2026
My Analyse 👇🏻
Short analyse since I have maximum captions to respect.
I didn't really like Baez first round and overral level of the past weeks, he is a player who mostly underperforms in the European continent compared to the South American one.
Baez's most favourite surface is clay while Bublik's is mostly grass, hard and then clay but quite interestingly, if we just compare the ELO ratings of both players on this surface:
1.40 for Bublik and 3.52 for Baez, which is quite a gap for a player who performs at his best on clay.
If we base ourselves on the last year, we have seen good things from Bublik on slow clay, and if you know Bublik well, he's a player that loves playing in Rome, better said, he loves the Rome atmosphere, and in these atmospheres that take the best out of him
And we know that with him it's much more about mentality. He has already been here for 5 days and I believe that when he checks the draw, he really has a decent spot to go deep this week.
I mean Baez R2, Dzumhur/Tien R3 and then Jodar/ADM R4 to potentially face Zverev (whom he owns), Paul or Darderi in the QF.
Baez is only 7-7 on clay this year and strangely on hard he is 10-4, which makes me think a bit of Altmaier and Munar, who were very good clay courters until they started to improve their game on hard and then just got bad results on clay afterwards.
So yes, I just believe we should see a good Bublik here who is locked in (a big part of my analysis is around that) because if Bublik is locked in, he is just a much better player than Baez.
At the same time, a Baez who didn't give me a good impression in R1, has been struggling for a couple of weeks now, had left thigh issues and retired from Cagliari last week.
Looks a decent spot for Bublik to go deep this week.
