In the Long Run

In the Long Run This page provides a link to my website, In the Long Run, where I provide longer term macro

During the last three months inflation has become a much debated topic. This article, which was published in March, may ...
16/07/2021

During the last three months inflation has become a much debated topic. This article, which was published in March, may still add something to the increasingly heated debate: - Inflationary Inflection Point or Temporary Blip?

During the last three months inflation has become a much debated topic. This article, which was published in March, may still add something to the increasingly heated debate: – Inflationary I…

Macro Letter – No 139 – 18-06-2021 Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand Talk of a new commodity s...
18/06/2021

Macro Letter – No 139 – 18-06-2021 Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand Talk of a new commodity super-cycle may be premature Once GDP growth returns to trend, commodity demand will moderate Fiscal and monetary relief are key to maintaining growth and demand Structural changes in energy demand will prove more persistent As the spectre of inflation begins to haunt economists, many market commentators have started to focus on commodity prices in an attempt to predict the likely direction of the general price level for goods and services....

Macro Letter – No 139 – 18-06-2021 Commodities, Supply-chains and Structural Changes in Demand Talk of a new commodity super-cycle may be prematureOnce GDP growth returns to trend, commodity demand…

Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to rec...
21/05/2021

Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic The PBoC began tightening monetary conditions in May 2020 Chinese housing and stocks remain strong despite official policy Chinese contagion remains a risk to the global recovery Whilst there are many aspects of the Chinese…...

Macro Letter – No 138 – 21-05-2021 First In, First Out – China as a Leading Indicator China was the first country to recover from the Covid-19 pandemicThe PBoC began tightening monetary conditions …

I published this essay at the end of last year but as Cryptocurrencies and Digital Asset gain further prominence, I take...
07/05/2021

I published this essay at the end of last year but as Cryptocurrencies and Digital Asset gain further prominence, I take the liberty of sharing once more. Central Bank Digital Currencies will be the next 'innovation' but we may see money, traditionally a store of value and a means of exchange, become either one or the other.

I published this essay at the end of last year but as Cryptocurrencies and Digital Asset gain further prominence, I take the liberty of sharing once more. Central Bank Digital Currencies will be th…

With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how th...
19/03/2021

With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how this fiscal largesse will be paid for. I thought this article from September 2020 might add to the debate.

With a new administration installed in the US and a $1.9trln relief package approved, attention has now turned to how this fiscal largesse will be paid for. I thought this article from September 20…

Macro Letter - No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentator...
26/02/2021

Macro Letter - No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubble Shorter-term indicators suggest the markets have run ahead of fundamentals Expectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic remain key Even a slight moderation of fiscal and monetary expansion could precipitate a crash…...

Macro Letter – No 137 A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 2 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubbleShorter-term indicators suggest the markets hav…

Source: Peter Boockvar, Pinnacle Data, Haver Analytics, Citi Macro Letter - No 136 – 19-02-2021 A Review of Stock Market...
19/02/2021

Source: Peter Boockvar, Pinnacle Data, Haver Analytics, Citi Macro Letter - No 136 – 19-02-2021 A Review of Stock Market Valuations - Part 1 As global stock markets continue to rise, commentators talk of a bubble Longer-term indicators present mixed signals about valuation Expectations about the speed of economic recovery from the pandemic are key A recovery in productivity growth relies on saving and investment in innovation…...

Source: Peter Boockvar, Pinnacle Data, Haver Analytics, Citi Macro Letter – No 136 – 19-02-2021 A Review of Stock Market Valuations – Part 1 As global stock markets continue to rise, co…

Podcast with Max Gottlich - 22-01-2021 A 30 minute podcast interview covering stocks, crypto assets and thoughts about m...
29/01/2021

Podcast with Max Gottlich - 22-01-2021 A 30 minute podcast interview covering stocks, crypto assets and thoughts about monetary and fiscal policy for the year ahead.

Podcast with Max Gottlich – 22-01-2021 A 30 minute podcast interview covering stocks, crypto assets and thoughts about monetary and fiscal policy for the year ahead.

With another $1.9trln of US fiscal relief set to be voted through, attention is likely to switch back to Europe. This ar...
22/01/2021

With another $1.9trln of US fiscal relief set to be voted through, attention is likely to switch back to Europe. This article from August 2020 seems relevant to the debate.

With another $1.9trln of US fiscal relief set to be voted through, attention is likely to switch back to Europe. This article from August 2020 seems relevant to the debate.

Macro Letter - No 135 - 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock ma...
31/12/2020

Macro Letter - No 135 - 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globally Fiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from a brutal bear-market Digital transformation has accelerated and fortunes of the technology sector with it With mass-vaccination still some way off, 2021 will see many trends continue…...

Macro Letter – No 135 – 31-12-2020 US Stocks in 2020 and the prospects for 2021 2020 has been a torrid year for stock markets globallyFiscal and monetary stimulus rescued investors from…

Macro Letter – No 134 – 27-11-2020 Relax, Rotate, Reflate With US elections over and a vaccine in sight, financial marke...
27/11/2020

Macro Letter – No 134 – 27-11-2020 Relax, Rotate, Reflate With US elections over and a vaccine in sight, financial market uncertainty has declined Rotation has seen a resurgence in those stocks battered by the onset of the pandemic Monetary and fiscal spending will continue until inflation returns November has been an interesting month for financial markets around the world. The US Presidential election came and went and with its passing financial market uncertainty diminished....

Macro Letter – No 134 – 27-11-2020 Relax, Rotate, Reflate With US elections over and a vaccine in sight, financial market uncertainty has declinedRotation has seen a resurgence in those stocks batt…

Back in June I wrote about the prospects for inflation in the wake of global money supply growth. The deflationary force...
20/11/2020

Back in June I wrote about the prospects for inflation in the wake of global money supply growth. The deflationary forces of the pandemic and demographic aging still maintain the upper hand for now, but there's a tug of war which governments need to win if debt is to be inflated away. Global Money Supply Growth and the Great Inflation Getaway

Back in June I wrote about the prospects for inflation in the wake of global money supply growth. The deflationary forces of the pandemic and demographic aging still maintain the upper hand for now…

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