12/05/2026
🌾 May WASDE sends CBOT wheat to the highest level in nearly two years — ASAP Agri
The May WASDE report delivered a clearly bullish signal for wheat, with the USDA projecting a much tighter global balance for 2026/27. Global production was forecast almost 25 MMT lower y/y, while ending stocks were placed below the average trade expectation. The estimate for 2025/26 global ending stocks also came in below even the lowest market forecast.
Global wheat production in 2026/27 is seen at 819.1 MMT, down 24.8 MMT y/y, with lower crops expected across all major exporters. The sharpest reduction is projected for the U.S. wheat crop, forecast at 42.5 MMT, the lowest in 54 years, down 11.5 MMT y/y, amid lower area and weaker yields as severe drought weighs on winter wheat. The USDA also expects smaller crops in the EU at 136 MMT (-9.1 MMT y/y), Argentina at 21 MMT (-6.9 MMT), Australia at 30 MMT (-6 MMT), Canada at 35 MMT (-5 MMT), russia at 86 MMT (-4.3 MMT), Kazakhstan at 15 MMT (-4.3 MMT), and Ukraine at 23 MMT (-1.1 MMT).
On the trade side, global wheat exports in 2026/27 are forecast at 211.7 MMT, down 12 MMT y/y, reflecting smaller crops in key exporting countries and weaker import demand from the MENA region amid larger domestic harvests in several countries. Lower shipments are expected from Argentina at 14.5 MMT (-4 MMT y/y), the U.S. at 21.1 MMT (-3.7 MMT), Australia at 23 MMT (-3 MMT), Kazakhstan at 9 MMT (-2.5 MMT), and Canada at 28 MMT (-2 MMT). At the same time, larger carry-in stocks are expected to support higher exports from russia at 47 MMT (+1 MMT), Ukraine at 13 MMT (+0.5 MMT), and the EU at 31 MMT (+0.5 MMT).
Global wheat consumption is projected only slightly lower y/y at 823.2 MMT, down just 0.3 MMT. With consumption broadly stable and production falling, global ending stocks are forecast to decline by 4.2 MMT y/y to 275.0 MMT, with the largest reduction expected in the U.S.
Overall, the report confirmed a noticeably tighter wheat balance for the new season and pushed CBOT wheat to its highest level since late May 2024. Geopolitical risks and ongoing concerns over U.S. crop conditions added further support to the rally.
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