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15/10/2026

15 Oct 2026
BoE's Pill is sceptical of four rate hikes in the next 12 months
After the IMF's recent optimism, the economy's fragility is becoming clear. The economy is forecast to have shrunk in August, on the back of a decline in the services sector, according to experts. The Office for National Statistics will unveil the latest monthly UK economic growth data later this morning.

Economists say the economy likely contracted in August as a “correction” after stronger-than-expected June and July figures. In June, the UK economy grew 0.3% as hospitality and leisure firms benefited from football fever and prolonged hot weather.

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https://www.currencytransfer.com/blog/market-commentary/daily-market-brief-15oct2026?utm_source=dmc-email

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01/10/2026

1 Oct 2026
Bailey calls for more testing of AI before greater regulation
The economy grew more quickly than previously thought in the second quarter, consolidating its position as the fastest-growing Group of Seven economy in the first half of 2026, ahead of Chancellor John Healey presenting his first budget later this month.

Economic output expanded by 0.5% in the April-to-June period, the Office for National Statistics said yesterday.

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28/09/2026

28 Sep 2026
MPs review Bank of England monetary policy independence
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned on Friday that sustained high energy costs will put immense pressure on the Monetary Policy Committee to abandon, or at least defer, its current wait-and-see stance and consider lifting borrowing costs at upcoming meetings.

"It's going to get harder to maintain that stance the longer we have high energy prices for," Bailey told a Monetary Economics Conference hosted by the University of Oxford. "We can't, as monetary policymakers, wait to get the full evidence on the second-round effects to make that call because it's going to be too late."

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18/09/2026

18 Sep 2026
The BoE leaves rate unchanged, but warns of a hike if the Iran war persists
The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate at 3.75% yesterday but warned it might need to hike rates as the war in the Middle East pushes up energy prices.

The widely expected decision followed a regular monetary policy meeting, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023, citing the need to combat surging inflation. “So far higher energy costs have had a limited effect on price and wage setting in the UK,” Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said.

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https://www.currencytransfer.com/blog/market-commentary/daily-market-brief-18sep2026?utm_source=dmc-email

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26/08/2026

26 Aug 2026
Burnham is running out of ways to avoid giving it to us straight on tax
October cannot come quickly enough for the Prime Minister, as the political, Parliamentary, and party-management pressures on him are now so intense that the next fixed point in the political calendar, October, is the first realistic moment when stability, clarity, or relief might arrive.

October is when stabilising forces converge: Parliament returns from recess and the Conference season begins. This is the moment when a new leader can reset the narrative, assert authority, and stop the drip-feed of internal chaos.

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25/08/2026

25 Aug 2026
Burnham commits to Starmer’s Brexit red lines
The Prime Minister has committed to honouring Sir Keir Starmer’s Brexit red lines, a major blow to hopes that he would find a route for Britain back into the European Union in some capacity. In an interview last year, when he was still mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham said he wanted the UK to rejoin the EU, and there were serious hopes he would tear up Labour’s manifesto commitments not to rejoin the EU, the single market or the customs union when he took over as Prime Minister in July.

This was further fuelled when his new Brexit minister, Hamish Falconer, refused to rule out rejoining in future.

Read More:
https://www.currencytransfer.com/blog/market-commentary/daily-market-brief-25aug2026?utm_source=dmc-email

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