30/03/2020
Hello Friends, I hope you’re well.
I have been tracking the ‘new cases’ of Covid19 reported in both Italy and UK on a daily basis.
As you know, Italy entered a state of ‘lockdown’ from Monday 9th March, and we followed on Monday 23rd.
This graph is called a ‘Run Chart’ and shows how Italy (in red) trended up daily until 19th March (10 days after their lockdown) and how for the last 10 days have ‘stabilised’ around a median of 5560 cases reported per day. We can say that this data has stabilised because the 10 data points cross the median (in grey) 4 times.
The data might have ‘maxed-out’ because this might demonstrate the full capacity of the Italian healthcare system. But hopefully, it is a true representation of the number of people coming forward.
We must now look for five more points consecutively below the median to show a ‘shift’. This would indicate an improvement/containment. And/or, 5 points consecutively going down. This would be a ‘trend’.
As you can see from the UK graph (in green), we are tracking at almost exactly the same number of new cases reported per day from the 23rd of March when we locked down as Italy were from 9th.
That means if we continue to follow in the same way, we should hopefully start to stabilise from Thursday 2nd April. And hopefully see signs of improvement by Friday 17th.
Well done Everyone for doing your bit. We’ll be winning soon and back to normal by June.
👁🔮💪🏼