07/10/2024
DataSphere Analytics
September poll
(Summary)
(2024 presidential and Parliamentary Elections)
John Dramani Mahama (JDM-NDC) Vrs Mahamudu Bawumia (MB-NPP)
JDM or MB Can Win Voters by Emphasizing Populist Economic Policies, Protecting the environment and Freedom of citizens
Content
1.Introduction
2.Key
3.Methodology
4.Demographics and Ideology
5.Plans for Voting in the 2024 Elections
6.Views on Key Issues
7.The economy’ Biggest Concerns About JDM and MB
8.How to Win Voters in December
9.Insights
Introduction
This is the published poll conducted by DataSphere Analytics released report for the 2024 general elections in Ghana, a cursory insight into the voters who could determine the outcome of the 2024 Presidential and Parliamentary elections. The report realized that voters in the race between John Dramani Mahama (JDM) and Mahamudu Bawumia (MB) were not very much engaged with politics, but issues relating to the economy, and were very much concerned about the ability of the winning candidate to handle the issues of jobs creation.
DataSphere Analytics (DSA) polling has found a marginal increase in MB favorability since the beginning of September 2024, with voter enthusiasm surging among party Faithful’s and undecided voters.
Voters who are undecided between JDM and MB today are not the same voters who were undecided between the two men in August. These voters are less certain of their feelings toward MB than they are of JDM, implying that JDM has a particularly strong opportunity to define himself to undecided voters.
This poll examines the underlying issues that form the opinion of voters, which will translate into votes on December 7th, 2024. These voters are, from their demographics and ideologies to their top issues, and what JDM and MB can do to win them over.
Key
A significant number of voters has continued to prioritize economic issues and broadly trust JDM over MB to handle the economy better.
The Ghanaian voters prefer a candidate who is honest, who can protect their freedoms and fight for workers and the jobless in the society.
Many Voters are of the view that both JDM and MB are moderates, and a clear majority say MB is extreme than JDM. Voters choose mainstream liberal policies such as expanding Health Coverage, reducing taxes that directly affects the poor, and raising workers' salaries as top actions that would win over their votes.
Methodology
From September 15th to September 30th, 2024, DSA conducted 4,050 respondents' interviews of Ghanaian likely Voters nationally using questionnaires. The sample was weighted to be representative of likely voters by age, gender, education, race, geography. The survey was conducted in English and the various Ghanaian languages by interpreting the questionnaires to the respondents who could not read.
In order to identify eligible voters, the voter identity card is considered as a prerequisite for the interview.
In this survey, respondents were asked various questions to create our scoring method. These include:
(i)Whom a respondent voted for in the 2020 presidential and parliamentary elections.
(ii)Whom a respondent would vote for in 2024 race between JDM and MB.
(iii)Whom a respondent would vote for in 2024 race between Candidates from the other political parties and the independent candidates
(iv)A respondent’s levels of favorability for JDM and MB on a five-point scale.
(v)A respondent’s level of approval for MB job performance as vice president on a five-point scale; and
(vi)Whether a respondent says they are considering party candidate, and/or not voting in 2024
Voters who say they will “definitely not vote” at all in the 2024 presidential and Parliamentary elections were excluded.
Political Engagement
Only 25% of sampled voters say they pay “a lot” of attention to national politics on radio or TV.
Partisanship and Ideology
A higher percentage of JDM voters identify themselves as Social Democrats. The same applied to MB, where a higher percentage of the voters identify themselves as Patriots.
Voting in the 2024 Election
Enthusiasm and Engagement
Likely voters remain much more enthusiastic about the election than undecided voters, even as enthusiasm among Party Faithfull’s and Independent voters has increased since the election date gets closer.
61% of likely voters say they’re more enthusiastic than usual about the 2024 election.
Favorability of JDM and MB
Interestingly, 75% of voters know enough about JDM to form an opinion, compared with 55% for MB, suggesting that JDM has a stronger opportunity to boost his favorability with voters who don’t already know much about him.
Voter Choice
Among voters, (35%) say they voted for JDM in 2020, while 46% say they voted for NPP. This also suggests that NPP may have brought home a significant number of voters who voted for its candidate in 2020 but were unsure about voting for MB again.
A two-way race, JDM-MB, voters back JDM over MB by a 42%-37% margin, with 31% unsure.
Overall race with other parties and independent candidates included, 47% of likely voters back JDM, 41% back MB, and 12% back other party candidates (including independent candidates). 3.5% margin of error.
Views on Key Issues
Top Issues
Economic issues emerge as the dominant concern for likely voters, far outpacing any other issue on the list. 77% percent of voters say “the economy, jobs, and inflation” is the most important issue for them when deciding who to vote for, compared to 30% of likely voters overall who say the same.
Among voters who select “the economy, jobs, and inflation” as their top issue, 63% select inflation as their top economic concern. Within the voters, a clear majority (84%) say that the cost of food and groceries is the main reason they are concerned about inflation, followed by the cost of transportation (22%).
The next issue of grave concern involves programs like Healthcare and Social Security, selected by 69% of likely voters, followed by Rent (9%) and taxes and government spending (8%). Swing voters select threats to democracy, and migration at lower rates than likely voters overall.
Trust of JDM vs MB on important national Issues:
While JDM holds a high trust advantage over MB on economic issues among likely voters overall, he also holds a much stronger advantage among undecided voters. Likely voters trust JDM more than MB on inflation, jobs and the economy, national security and foreign policy, handling illegal/small-scale mining, crime and public safety.
Voters’ Biggest Concerns About JDM and MB
Since MB became the NPP Presidential candidate, the Opposition NDC party have deployed attacks on his ideology, honesty, credibility, and his handling of the Economy. Based on previous open-ended data research, Likely voters with a list of statements and were asked which, if any, are reasons they might not vote for MB.
Voters’ top choices for why they might not vote for MB are:
1. MB cannot manage the economy (48%)
2. MB did not accomplish enough as vice president (49%)
3. MB is extreme Moderate (33%)
4. MB cannot fight corruption (73%)
DSA asked Voters to select the reasons they might not vote for JDM.
1. 29% say that JDM is corrupt
2. 31% say JDM is a liar
3. 24 % say JDM cannot manage the economy
Swing Voters’ Perceptions of MB and JDM
The survey also identifies who among the Presidential candidates are the most persuasive to undecided voters.
First, voters were given a list of characteristics and asked to select the qualities that are most important to them in a candidate for president.
Among undecided voters, the top choice is a presidential candidate who can manage the economy; and JDM has a +7-point trust advantage over MB on this attribute.
On the other hand, MB has a trust advantage on the qualities voters find important, with a +12-point advantage on Education and a +9-point advantage on pro poor policies.
The options chosen least by voters include investments in public programs, and patriotism.
Respondents also read a list of policy positions and were asked to choose up to three policies that would convince them to definitely vote for a presidential candidate.
The top policy — chosen by 28% of voters is the improvement of health services. This is followed by tax reduction and withdrawal of E-Levy (21%), and an increase in the minimum wage (12%).
Further Insights
Most of the voters prioritize the economy and particularly high prices above all other issues. They want to see which of the candidates can best protect their freedoms and work hard to stabilize the economy.
Voters largely select progressive policy priorities, including populist economic policies such as free senior high school, as top actions that would win over their votes, alongside decreasing fuel prizes.
Fortunately for JDM and MB, both of them have been campaigning on many of these winning issues. With almost 2 months to go, each of these 2 Presidential candidates must prove to voters that he will be better than his opponent at protecting their freedoms and continue to raise the volume on populist economic policies that speak to lowering costs and fighting for workers and private small-scale businesses.
WATCHOUT for our next poll for October.
1. the Impact of DMB as the NPP presidential candidate in the.
(a) 5 Northern regions
(b) Settler communities nationwide where Northerners forms the majority of voters
How will the DMB factor affect the Fortunes of NDC in these areas?
2. Constituencies to Watch (A Review of the September poll)
DataSphere Analytics
Research & Analysis Team,
Carlos Dawda Nasanbory
(Leader)
