04/02/2016
Feb 4th 2016.
__THE INSIDE INSIGH__
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There are two completely conflicting views of the Ghanaian economy. And yet they’re both accurate, conflictingly accurate.
The concept of ‘Parallax’ in Astronomy basically explains how a star’s position appears to change based on the position and motion of the observer. The earth is constantly moving along its orbit around the sun. And as this happens, the position of a star in the night’s sky will appear to change slowly, gradually over time. The idea is that the exact same object can appear to be different, even though neither you nor the object has moved an inch. Examples of "parallax" are everywhere-- just look at China.
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If you close your left eye, China appears to be in a massive financial mess thanks to a bursting credit bubble with the potential of dragging most of Asia, and possibly the world, into an era of massively depressed trade and asset prices.
However, if you close your right eye, China has already become the world’s second largest economy (and arguably by some measurements the largest economy), and has accumulated more savings than every other nation on the planet.
Plus the Chinese Renminbi’s or Yuan (national currency) acceptance in foreign reserves, global payments, and international trade settlement is growing rapidly, and with the renminbi been anointed by the IMF, the dollar is in trouble. These are two completely conflicting views of China. And yet they’re both accurate.
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Taking a glance at the Ghana, gives conflicting views.
Closing your left eye, the Ghanaian democratic system is looks ever strong. There is immense freedom for the citizenry. A robust Police helping reduce crime, less trade barriers, a fairly competitive business environment for both Nationals and Foreigners. A welcoming and hospitable population to foreign entrepreneurs. Ghana is affluent and free.
But if you close your right eye__the Ghanaian Cedi is astonishingly SICK based on nearly every objective metric that exists, and the BoG's reserves is nearly insolvent on a mark-to-market basis. The nation's labour market is completely hollowed out as the work force (formal sector) keeps declining on an increasing rate.
Today, unelected bureaucrats and central bankers conjure money out of thin air and manipulate asset prices in their sole discretion. OK, maybe three centuries ago, when most Ghanaians were illiterates as few people traveled more than ten miles from their homes, this been an understandable way to set up a financial system.
But today? Give me a break. The system is changing.__. And the BoG has got to pick up fast.
People are changing jobs like changing kids diapers . The Ghanaian government herself is flat broke, based on its own financial statements. Government can even bail out Volta River Authority (VRA) off it's debts, much more talk of resourcing Tema Oil Refinery (TOR). No wonder the era of Bulk Oil Distributors (BDCs).
The fundamentals of the economy are weak. There’s much debt. There’s too much manipulation. World Crude, Cocoa and Gold prices are not doing good. Dumsor abound. With the lifting of Iranian sanctions; crude oil prices are gonna fall further
Most Ghanaian banks are nearly insolvent. But they'd DENY.
What’s really interesting, though, is that Ghana is in bad shape but with Opportunities We have a looming debt problem, credit crisis, a financial morass that could lead to a great depression. Sure__ times are hard. But Cashew and Palm is gaining prominence.
Nearly every major program and institution, from Social Security to the Pension Benefit Guarantee Corporation, to the Health Insurance, is either insolvent or precariously underfunded. But new schools are springing up meaning minimizing illiteracy rate.
The government cranks out pages of new laws, rules, regulations each year, many of which carry; tax obligations, severe criminal penalties and govern the most private details of our lives, including how we are allowed to spend our own hard earned monies.
And many of the basic freedoms guaranteed by the Constitution have become watered-down theories rather than inalienable rights.
Again, two completely opposite views that are both accurate. And there are far more reaching instances everywhere.
Financial markets are on a knife’s edge. Yet there are some absolutely incredible investments out there-- high quality, profitable companies that are trading for less than cash, and beautiful properties that are selling for less than the cost of construction.
Financial insolvency abound. Risk abounds (Inflation). But so does Opportunity (Gold, Palm Oil, Cashew, Shea Butter).
After all it's not all rossy every where. First world countries are on financial turmoil of their own; China, the United States, Germany, Spain, Portugal, ___you name it.
Just this early February, Deutsche Bank recorded a $7.4 Billion Loss for the year 2015 with a net loss of €6.8 Billion. The Royal Bank of Scotland recorded a loss of £2.5 Billion ($3.5 Billion)
That’s Mother Ghana. Since the 6th March 1957, it has simultaneously been full of risk AND reward.
The GREATS look with BOTH eyes. They've never feared the risk.
Know the risks. Be guided by objective data to understand them, and take action to minimize them.
But don’t be overwhelmed by negativity. Don’t panic. Instead, take simple, sensible steps to ensure your livelihood doesn’t become a victim of someone else’s STUPIDITY.
Only then, with both eyes open, will you be able to see all the incredible opportunity that awaits, and be able to seize it from a position of STRENGTH.
You can either have a front-row seat to enjoy the show and benefit from these developments, or you can choose to do nothing, cry about President Mahama and become another victim of HISTORY
But make no mistake, it’s happening. And looking back, it’s going to seem a MISSED OPPORTUNITY.
Signed WM.