Insight Consultancy Solutions

10/02/2023

Η αλήθεια για τις αναβαθμίσεις του χρέους

icscs editorial team General Financial News February 11, 2023 Του Πάνου Κοσμά Την τριετία 2016 – 2019 (κυβέρνηση ΣΥΡΙΖΑ), οι τρεις από τους τέσσερις οίκους αξιολόγησης (DBRS, Fitch, S&P) αναβάθμισαν τα ελλ...

26/01/2023

Αντιμέτωπα με «τσουνάμι» προκλήσεων θα βρεθούν τα κράτη - μέλη της Ευρωζώνης, προειδοποιεί ο Economist Intelligence Unit (ΕΙU), ερευνητικός βραχίονας του

02/07/2022

Σε αυτόν τον χάρτη βλέπουμε με κόκκινο τις χώρες όπου αναμένεται να αυξηθεί ο πληθωρισμός τον Ιούνιο σε σχέση με το Μάιο, με γαλάζιο αυτές που θα μειωθεί και με μαύρο αυτές που θα μείνει αμετάβλητος.

20/05/2022

Traders Are Putting an 80% Chance on a Catastrophe
Just how serious was the selloff in US stocks that we saw on Wednesday? While economists are beavering away frantically to work out the probability of a recession, it’s fair to say that stock traders are at least sensing some kind of alarm.

In more “normal” times, you would expect that a 4% selloff in the S&P 500 Index -- the benchmark slumped 4.04% earlier this week -- to lure buyers who were earlier on the sidelines. But evidently not so this time around.

I set up a test to check this out, parsing data from the start of the millennium, with the null hypothesis being that all significant declines are followed by a bounce-back, however minuscule. There have only been 40 instances when we have seen a selloff matching the threshold of a 4% -- or greater -- single-day decline. Statistically, that means if you trade stocks for a 1,000 consecutive days, you may be witness to such an occasion on just seven such days. (Before the global financial crisis, there were only four such instances since the start of the test period!)

On a majority of occasions when stocks sold off on that scale, investors bought back enough on the following day to push the S&P 500 Index into positive territory. However, that failed to happen on Thursday. That is incredibly rare and has mostly happened when the U.S. economy has faced a stern test of character: during the bursting of the dotcom bubble, the global financial crisis and the first wave of the pandemic as the table below shows.
On the 40 occasions the selloff has exceed 4%, there have been only 14 instances when it hasn’t been greeted with follow-through buying (excluding this week). On only three of those occasions were the findings not coincidental to -- or heralding -- something being seriously amiss with the economy, meaning traders are ascribing a near-80% chance of spotting something dreadful.

Clearly, Wednesday’s slump was about more than just another correction amid the Fed’s continuing interest-rate increases. If it had been, investors would have waded right back in to swoop in and benefit from what they may have perceived as beaten-down valuations. The fact that didn’t happen shows that traders were probably factoring in a collapse in earnings growth that may coincide with a sharp slowdown in the economy, or worse, a recession.

Of course, there is the possibility that some of the “signals” produced by US stocks may be turn out to be noise in the long run, but when we see a slump of the magnitude that we saw earlier this week, it may be best to pay heed.

Ven Ram Cross-Assets Strategist, London

04/03/2022

Ukrainians and foreign nationals are crowding border crossings to seek asylum

04/03/2022

𝐈𝐧𝐣𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝟕𝟎𝟎 𝐓𝐖𝐡 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐄𝐔 𝐬𝐭𝐨𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐡𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐨𝐟 𝐧𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐰𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐬𝐭𝐥𝐲. 𝐀𝐭 𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐩𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐬, 𝐚𝐭 𝐥𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐭 €𝟕𝟎 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 €𝟏𝟐 𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬 𝐲𝐞𝐚𝐫𝐬.

The European Union can manage without Russian gas next winter, but must be united in taking difficult decisions, accepting that in many cases it won’t have enough time for perfect solutions.

03/03/2022

Ο επικεφαλής της Πράσινης Συμφωνίας της Ε.Ε υποστήριξε ότι οι χώρες που σχεδιάζουν να καίνε λιγνίτη ως εναλλακτική λύση στο ρωσικό αέριο θα μπορούσαν να το κάνουν σύμφωνα με τους στόχους της ΕΕ για το κλίμα.
«𝚫𝛆𝛎 𝛖𝛑ά𝛒𝛘𝛐𝛖𝛎 𝛕𝛂𝛍𝛑𝛐ύ 𝛔𝛆 𝛂𝛖𝛕ή𝛎 𝛕𝛈𝛎 𝛋𝛂𝛕ά𝛔𝛕𝛂𝛔𝛈» https://buff.ly/3Mlti8Q

02/03/2022

𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐂𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐢𝐱 𝐋𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐉𝐮𝐧𝐤 𝐛𝐲 𝐅𝐢𝐭𝐜𝐡, 𝐌𝐨𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐨𝐰𝐧𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐬 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐛𝐥𝐞

(Bloomberg) -- Russia’s credit rating was cut six levels to junk by Fitch Ratings, which said the severity of international sanctions in response to the country’s invasion of Ukraine could undermine its capability and willingness to service debt.

Fitch lowered Russia to B from BBB and placed the rating on negative watch Wednesday, citing weakening external and public finances, slowing growth, elevated domestic and geopolitical risk and the potential for further sanctions.

Sanctions have “heightened macro-financial stability risks” and represent a huge shock to Russia’s credit fundamentals, the rating company said in a statement.

The Fitch downgrade puts Russia on par with nations including Nigeria and Bolivia, and follows S&P Global Ratings’ decision to lower Russia last week to BB+ from BBB-. S&P also warned of further cuts.

Fitch pointed specifically to sanctions from the U.S. and European Union prohibiting transactions with Russia’s central bank, which the rating company said will have a bigger impact on credit fundamentals than any previous restrictions. Fitch also expects further sanctions on the country’s banking sector. The moves could also weigh on the nation’s willingness to service its debt
“We assume U.S. sanctions prohibiting transactions with the Ministry of Finance will not impede the servicing of Russia’s sovereign debt but this is unclear and the risk of such a severe measure has increased markedly,” Fitch analysts wrote.

Russia was also put on review for downgrade last week at Moody’s Investors Service, which rates Russia Baa3, the lowest investment grade.

02/03/2022

𝐄𝐮𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐞 𝐆𝐚𝐬 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝟔𝟎% 𝐖𝐢𝐭𝐡 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐁𝐚𝐜𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐀𝐰𝐚𝐲 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐥𝐬

(Bloomberg) -- European natural gas surged to a record as fears about supply during wartime were compounded by traders’ decisions to avoid dealing with a key Russian player in the market.

Benchmark futures rose as much as 60%, before easing. Gas and power traders are backing away from new deals with Gazprom Marketing & Trading Ltd., according to people familiar with the matter. There’s a further risk that previously agreed contracts start unwinding or clearing houses decide to stop doing business with the Russian company, liquidating their positions. Gazprom M&T declined to comment on whether some firms are cutting trading with them.

The war in Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring -- with Brent crudenearing $114 a barrel -- as buyers, traders and shippers remain wary of dealing with Russian supplies. With the fighting entering a more brutal phase, damage to infrastructure in Ukraine could disrupt gas flows, while there also are concerns sanctions eventually could extend to energy.

But for now, Russian flows continue, and they even have increased since the invasion last week. Shipments arriving at the key European entry point of Velke Kapusany in Slovakia have rebounded to normal levels, and gas flowed to Germany via the Yamal-Europe pipeline overnight, with more capacity bookedfor later Wednesday.

“The market is likely repositioning itself, and participants are unwinding from Gazprom and affiliates in short- and mid-term contracts where possible,” said Tom Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at ICIS in London.

He said earlier that Wednesday’s price spike is similar to when gas rose to a then- record on Dec. 21, which was assumed to be the result of “participants covering positions.”

Dutch front-month gas futures rose to above 194 euros a megawatt-hour, a record, and were 35% higher at 164 euros at 4:56 p.m. in Amsterdam. The U.K. equivalent contract climbed 35%.

Halting dealings with Gazprom M&T, which also is involved in trading power and liquefied natural gas, could ripple through the energy market. The company’s retail unit supplied gas to more than 177,000 industrial and commercial sites in the U.K. in 2020, according to the trader’s annual report. It also had agreements to ship gas to France and the Netherlands.

Port Ban
Europe relies on Russia for about a third of its gas, and any disruption could keep prices high for longer, making it difficult to refill storage facilities over the summer and prolonging the energy crunch. Governments in the region are looking to boost LNG imports, which puts them in competition with Asian buyers also starting to replenish their stocks from March onward.

Carbon futures regained earlier losses after dropping as much as 20% to 55 euros a ton on the ICE Endex.
“European emission allowances are experiencing extreme volatility as a direct result of uncertainty related to war between Russia and Ukraine, regulatory risks and potential extended coal phaseout,” said Jan Kresnik, carbon trader at Belektron.

“Aggressive selling is suspected to be caused by some large investors, which led to a cascade effect.”

01/03/2022

𝐄𝐔 𝐁𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐬 𝐒𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐧 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚𝐧 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐤𝐬 𝐅𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐒𝐖𝐈𝐅𝐓
European Union ambassadors agreed to exclude seven Russian banks from the SWIFT financial-messaging system but spared the nation’s biggest lender Sberbank PJSC and a bank part-owned by Russian gas giant Gazprom PJSC. VTB Bank PJSC and Bank Rossiya are among the banks that would face a ban from the messaging system that enables trillions of dollars worth of transactions around the world, according to officials familiar with the decision.
The other institutions on the list are Bank Otkritie, Novikombank, Promsvyazbank PJSC, Sovcombank PJSC and VEB.RF. Some countries, including Poland, had pushed for more banks to be included in the measure, two of the people said.

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01/03/2022

U.S. farmers and truckers are paying the highest price for diesel in nine years after oil soared above $100 a barrel amid intensifying sanctions against Russia. The average retail diesel price is now $4.016 per gallon, the highest level since late March 2013, according to auto club AAA. Meanwhile, ultra-low sulfur diesel futures traded in New York hit a fresh eight-year high on Tuesday. That’s a bad omen for consumers because pump prices typically track the futures within a few weeks.

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01/03/2022

𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 𝐁𝐚𝐧𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐩𝐨𝐧 𝐏𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐭𝐨 𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐨𝐧 $𝟐𝟗 𝐁𝐢𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐢𝐧 𝐁𝐨𝐧𝐝𝐬
(Bloomberg) -- The Russian central bank has banned coupon payments to foreign owners of ruble bonds known as OFZs in what it called a temporary step to shore up markets in the wake of international sanctions.