08/04/2025
U.S. trade war is in full swing, with tariffs soaring on imports from China and other key partners
❍ Last week, China upped tariffs by 34% on U.S. goods, triggering panic across global equity markets
Trump’s strategy is straightforward – create economic chaos to force the Fed’s hand
❍ By escalating tariffs and trade tensions, he’s engineering a scenario where only an emergency rate cut can restore confidence
The fiscal math paints a clear picture:
❍ U.S. government revenue stands at about $4.9T while spending soars to $6.4T, generating a $1.5T annual deficit
❍ $34.5T U.S. debt
❍ $850B annual interest payments
❍ 20%+ of tax revenue now goes to debt service
❍ At >5% rates, refinancing becomes politically unsustainable !
So what’s the goal in 2025?
❍ Create chaos (tariffs, China tension)
❍ Let markets dump — force Fed to cut
❍ Lower rates = cheaper debt = bull market reboot
