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Gudang Kopi Pagar Alam, Pagaralam (2026)

13/10/2026

Brazilian coffee shipments post only a modest recovery (+3.1%) despite this year’s bumper crop, Colombia’s 2025/26 production tumbles
Despite this year’s abundant harvest, Arabica shipments fell by 7.1 per cent to 2,766,290 bags, whilst Robusta shipments soared to 813,904 bags (+65.1 per cent)

October 13, 2026
Coffee prices edged higher in the first trading session of the week, against the backdrop of disappointing figures from Colombia marking the close of the 2025/26 coffee year and Cecafé statistics on Brazilian coffee exports. In New York, ICE Arabica coffee for December delivery gained 1.3%, settling at 290.60 cents/lb. In London, ICE Robusta for November delivery closed marginally higher, up US$8 at US$3,478 per tonne.

Exports of all forms of coffee from Brazil rose by a modest 3.1 per cent in September, to 3,893,747 bags. Green coffee exports rose similarly by 3.2 per cent, to a total of 3,580,194 bags.

Despite this year’s abundant harvest, Arabica shipments fell by 7.1 per cent to 2,766,290 bags, whilst Robusta shipments soared to 813,904 bags (+65.1 per cent).

Sales abroad of processed coffee also rose slightly (+1.8%), totalling 313,553 bags, mostly of instant coffee.

Exports of all forms of coffee during the first nine months of 2026 were broadly stable, slipping just 0.2% to 29,094,951 bags. Green coffee exports declined by 1.5% to 25,900,545 bags, comprising 20,738,910 bags of Arabica, down 10.7%, and 5,161,635 bags of Robusta, up 68.3%.

Sales of processed coffee showed a marked recovery (+11.8%), rising to 3,194,406 bags.

Exports to the US and Germany have stalled, falling by 12.8 per cent and 11.4 per cent respectively.

During the same period, 2,596,665 bags were exported to Italy, representing an increase of 11.6 per cent. Shipments to Belgium saw strong growth (+44.5%), reaching 2,462,822 bags.

Looking at the main ports of destination, Antwerp retains the top spot ahead of Hamburg, Genoa, New Orleans and Veracruz (Mexico).

In Colombia, figures published by FNC last Friday, summarising the 2025/26 crop year, show a 15 per cent fall in production to 12.65 million bags. Exports, in turn, fell by 12 per cent to 11.78 million.

13/10/2026

Global Coffee News — October 13, 2026
▪️Markets and Supply
Global coffee prices fell as Brazil’s record harvest reached export markets
The ICO composite indicator averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September, down 8.7% from August. Brazilian Naturals declined 9.9%, while robusta prices fell 7.3%. The price retreat reflects greater availability from Brazil and expectations of a global surplus, although low certified arabica inventories and El Niño risk continue to support nearby contracts.

Coffee exports accelerated, led by Brazil and Vietnam
Global coffee exports across all forms rose 14.6% year over year to 12.55 million bags in August. Brazil’s shipments increased 34.5% to 4.28 million bags, while Vietnam’s exports rose 48.0% to 2.24 million bags. Robusta green-bean exports increased 22.4%, signaling a larger role for lower-cost robusta supply in the global market.

▪️Producing Countries
Colombian Milds remained the main weak point in global export growth
Exports of Colombian Milds fell 5.6% to 1.09 million bags in August, marking the group’s tenth month of year-over-year contraction in the current coffee year. Colombia was the principal driver of the decline, with its own shipments also down 5.6%. In contrast, Guatemala’s Other Mild exports surged 87.4%, partly offsetting weaker flows from Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Peru.

Weather risk remains concentrated in Central America and Brazil’s next crop cycle
Brazil’s 2026/27 crop is estimated at a record 67.6 million bags, but weather conditions during flowering and fruit development remain critical for the following harvest. The ICO cites a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event, increasing the risk of supply disruptions. Drought alerts in Honduras and Nicaragua could reduce availability of washed arabica coffees from Central America.

▪️Retail and Corporate Activity
Starbucks denied it is pursuing a takeover of Chipotle
Starbucks stated on October 12 that it is not buying Chipotle Mexican Grill, ending market speculation following reports of adviser discussions. Chipotle shares fell about 4% after the denial, while Starbucks shares rose roughly 1% in early trading. Starbucks said it remains focused on its “Back to Starbucks” turnaround strategy and plans to release fourth-quarter results and a fiscal 2027 outlook later this month.

Coffee chains are reshaping ownership and expanding across Asia and the Middle East
DFI Retail Group has taken full control of Starbucks operations in seven East Asian markets, covering about 1,100 stores. Luckin Coffee is examining a Middle East entry after selling a significant $1 billion stake to Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Investment Company. Keurig Dr Pepper is also preparing to separate its coffee business following its $18 billion JDE Peet’s acquisition.

13/10/2026

Global Coffee Market — October 13, 2026
▪️Price Movements
Arabica falls while robusta rebounds in the latest trading session
December arabica settled at 286.95 cents per pound on October 9, down 0.73% on the day and 0.62% for the week. The contract had dropped 17.50 cents from its October 6 settlement, reflecting expectations of heavier Brazilian supply. November robusta rose 1.37% to $3,470 per tonne, though it was broadly flat for the week. The split indicates that arabica is reacting more strongly to improving export availability, while robusta retains nearby supply support.

Major News
Global benchmark prices weakened as Brazilian supply reached the market
The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 cents per pound in September, a monthly decline of 8.7%. The decline was driven by Brazil’s new-crop availability and expectations of ample supply. Global coffee exports reached 12.58 million 60-kg bags in August, compared with 10.95 million bags a year earlier. Robusta exports over the latest twelve-month period rose to 61.05 million bags, while arabica exports fell to 81.39 million bags.

▪️Trend to Watch
Supply growth is pressuring arabica, but weather and inventories may keep volatility elevated
Brazil and Vietnam remain structurally dominant in global production, with robusta’s share of supply continuing to expand. Market attention is shifting toward Brazil’s flowering weather and the potential effect of El Niño on the next crop cycle. Low exchange-certified inventories, particularly for arabica, could still amplify price moves if weather conditions deteriorate. The key near-term question is whether larger export flows outweigh inventory and climate risks.

12/10/2026

🌍 Harga Kopi Internasional, 13 Oktober

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12/10/2026

ICO report: Record Brazilian crop drives coffee prices lower as production rises and global consumption is down by 0.9%
On the supply side, fundamentals remain decidedly bearish, underpinned by Brazil’s record crop. However, rain during harvesting affected quality, creating uneven availability across grades. The ICO also reports a 0.8% decline in global consumption during coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by weaker demand in North America. The organisation’s statistics further confirm a return to a 3 million-bag supply surplus, following four consecutive deficit seasons between 2021/22 and 2024/25

October 12, 2026
Coffee prices fell sharply in September, against a backdrop of continuing volatility: according to the ICO’s monthly report, published on Friday 9 October, the monthly average of the ICO Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) declined by 8.7% last month, having risen sharply in July and remained stable in August. The report attributes this decline, first and foremost, to the improved global supply situation, with the arrival on the coffee market of Brazil’s record harvest and a return to a supply surplus after years of deficit.

The report attributes the downturn primarily to improved global supply conditions, driven by the arrival of Brazil’s record crop on the market and a return to a global supply surplus after several years of deficits.

The I-CIP averaged 262.18 cents in September, compared with 287.29 in August and 287.26 in July.

Volatility remained high (10 per cent), al groups recorded negative changes
The Colombian Milds’ and Other Milds’ prices fell 8.1% and 8.8% in September 2026 compared to August 2026, averaging 356.15 and 329.44 US cents/lb, respectively. The Brazilian Naturals’ prices fell 9.9% to 290.19 US cents/lb.

In the same month, the Robustas declined 7.3% to 167.49 US cents/lb. Prices on the London ICE market for the Robustas fell by 8.0% to an average 154.28 US cents/lb, while those on the New York ICE market for the Arabicas fell by 10.4% to an average 280.68 US cents/lb in September 2026.

As the 2025/26 coffee year draws to a close, the report provides an overview of the key factors shaping market dynamics
On the supply side, fundamentals remain decidedly bearish, underpinned by Brazil’s record crop. However, rain during harvesting affected quality, creating uneven availability across grades.

The ICO also reports a 0.8% decline in global consumption during coffee year 2025/26, driven mainly by weaker demand in North America. The organisation’s statistics further confirm a return to a 3 million-bag supply surplus, following four consecutive deficit seasons between 2021/22 and 2024/25.

The climate outlook appears complex, with an El Niño event of historic proportions set to alter weather patterns, particularly in the tropics
In Brazil, the September rains have favoured flowering and the initial fruit-setting of the next Arabica crop, but the weather outlook for the coming months remains uncertain. In Central America, there are fears of drought in Honduras and Nicaragua. The impact of El Niño on crop performance in Asia and Africa also remains to be assessed.

Turning to futures markets, certified stock levels in New York remain extremely low (260,654 bags on 30 September and 252,006 bags on Friday 9 October), although they have recovered somewhat from the all-time low recorded in mid-September (217,646 bags, the lowest level since 1999).

Media reports suggest that Olam and Louis Dreyfus Company are set to replenish stocks by several hundred thousand bags, bringing them to a slightly more reassuring level.

The situation is better in London, where stocks are at their highest levels in the last 10 months
The report also notes, with regard to New York, an increase in net short positions held by non-commercials in the middle of the month, followed by partial covering towards the end of the month.

The report notes that non-commercial traders increased their net short positions in New York during the middle of the month, followed by a partial round of short covering towards month-end.

Backwardation narrowed for front months. This reduced delivery incentives without ensuring a return to contango soon, points out the report.

Meanwhile, total exports by exporting countries of all forms of coffee recorded a strong recovery in August (+14.6 per cent), rising to 12.546 million bags from 10.95 million a year ago.

Arabica exports increased by almost 10% to 7.208 million bags. As expected, the strongest growth was recorded by Brazilian Naturals, up 20.1%, while Other Milds also posted positive growth of 3.2%. Conversely, exports of Colombian Milds fell 5.4%, reflecting the impact of the earthquake in Colombia.

Exports of Robusta rose by almost one million bags (+21.6%), totalling 3.883 million bags.

As a result, cumulative exports during the first eleven months of coffee year 2025/26 reached 130.738 million bags, up 1% from the corresponding period of the previous season.

Arabica exports remained in negative territory overall (-5.2%), with Other Milds representing the only exception. Robusta exports continued to expand strongly (+10.7%), reaching 56.195 million bags.

Finally, the ICO left its 2025/26 forecasts unchanged, projecting production at 183.6 million bags and consumption at 180.6 million bags (-0.9%), resulting in a surplus of approximately 3 million bags.

12/10/2026

Global Coffee News — October 12, 2026
▪️Markets and Supply
Global coffee prices fell as Brazil’s record crop reached the market
The ICO Composite Indicator Price averaged 262.18 US cents per pound in September, down 8.7% from August. Brazilian Naturals declined 9.9%, while robusta prices fell 7.3%. The ICO attributes the broad decline to greater Brazilian availability and expectations of ample supply, although low certified arabica stocks and El Niño uncertainty continued to support nearby prices.

Brazil’s record harvest and exports are reshaping supply conditions
Brazil’s 2026 crop is estimated at 67.6 million 60-kilogram bags, an increase of 19.6% from 2025. August exports reached 3.8 million bags, up 43.2% year over year and the highest August volume in the historical series. Fresh Brazilian supply has increased export availability and added downward pressure to international prices.

Vietnam’s robusta shipments surge ahead of the new harvest
Vietnam’s September coffee exports rose 53% year over year, while 2025/26 crop-year cumulative exports increased 27.36% to 6.58 million bags. The 2026/27 harvest is beginning in October, with production expected around 30.5 million bags under favorable weather. Higher Vietnamese and Brazilian supply has reinforced expectations of a looser global robusta market.

▪️Origin and Weather Risks
Central American and East African supply risks keep washed-coffee differentials elevated
Honduras is expected to produce a crop 10% to 30% smaller, with meaningful harvest arrivals not expected until November. Demand and higher differentials are lifting prices for Costa Rican and Guatemalan washed coffees, while Kenya is described as heavily sold. Internal disruption and concerns over washed-coffee processing are adding uncertainty in Ethiopia, even as Colombia enters its main harvest period.

Ethiopia enters harvest under weather and security uncertainty
Ethiopia’s coffee-growing regions are moving into harvest as rainfall declines, helping picking and drying activity. However, below-normal moisture during cherry development may reduce bean size, density, volume, or cup quality. Security conditions and potential disruption to transport routes remain additional risks for export logistics.

▪️Trade and Investment
EU deforestation rules approach a major coffee-trade deadline
The EU Deforestation Regulation is due to apply to large and medium-sized operators on December 30, 2026. Coffee entering the EU will require traceability information, including origin geolocation and proof that production was not linked to deforestation after December 31, 2020. The regulation is accelerating investment in farm-level mapping, supplier data, and due-diligence systems across coffee origins.

Nestlé plans expanded coffee sourcing and production support in Mexico
Nestlé plans to double its Mexico investment to $2 billion during the current presidential term, according to Mexico’s government. Between 2028 and 2030, the company plans to support domestic sourcing with 70,000 coffee plants and the inclusion of 2,000 coffee producers in Veracruz. The initiative highlights growing investment in localized coffee supply chains in consumer markets.

12/10/2026

Global Coffee Market — October 12, 2026
▪️Price Movements
Coffee benchmarks fell in September before futures rebounded in early October
The ICO composite coffee indicator averaged 262.18 cents per pound in September, down 8.7% month over month as Brazilian supply reached export markets. Arabica and robusta group prices declined broadly during the month. In the latest reported futures session, March arabica rose 4.06% to 295.85 cents per pound, while November robusta gained 1.76% to $3,590 per metric ton.

▪️Major Market News
Brazil and Vietnam exports are improving the global supply outlook
Global exports of all forms of coffee increased 14.6% year over year to 12.55 million bags in August. Brazil’s total exports rose 34.5% to 4.28 million bags, supported by fresh supply from its record harvest. Vietnam’s exports increased 48.0% to 2.24 million bags, adding to robusta availability.

▪️Trend to Watch Today
El Niño risk could quickly reverse the supply-driven bearish outlook
Brazil’s 2026 coffee crop is estimated at a record 67.6 million bags, which has weighed on prices. However, NOAA projects a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter of 2026–27. Weather impacts on flowering in Brazil and the upcoming Vietnamese harvest are the main near-term volatility risks.

11/10/2026

🌏 Harga Kopi Internasional, 12 Oktober

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11/10/2026

Kopi Dataran Rendah, Benarkah Masa Depan Kopi Harus Berada Di Dataran Yang Lebih Tinggi?

Oleh Hengky Ir.
Selama puluhan tahun, ketinggian tempat dianggap sebagai salah satu faktor penting dalam menilai potensi budidaya kopi, terutama Arabika.

Namun, perubahan iklim memunculkan pertanyaan baru:

• Seiring meningkatnya suhu dan semakin terbatasnya ketersediaan air, mampukah kopi beradaptasi melalui perbaikan genetika dan praktik budidaya yang lebih cerdas, tanpa harus selalu berpindah ke dataran yang lebih tinggi?

• Penelitian dari Yunnan, Tiongkok, memberikan perspektif yang menarik.

Di Lujiangba, Baoshan, kopi dibudidayakan pada ketinggian sekitar 750–800 meter di atas permukaan laut (mdpl), dengan suhu rata-rata tahunan sekitar 21,3°C dan curah hujan tahunan hanya sekitar 755 mm.

Dalam kondisi yang lebih hangat dan kering tersebut, para peneliti mengeksplorasi sejumlah faktor yang dapat membantu tanaman kopi beradaptasi.

• Genetika, menyeleksi varietas yang sesuai dengan kondisi lingkungan tertentu.

• Pohon penaung, penelitian dalam kondisi setempat menemukan bahwa tingkat naungan sekitar 30% berpotensi mendukung hasil panen dan meningkatkan efisiensi penggunaan air.

• Pengelolaan air, penerapan irigasi defisit terkendali dapat meningkatkan efisiensi penggunaan air.

• Pengelolaan iklim mikro, menyeimbangkan suhu, intensitas cahaya, dan kelembapan di sekitar tanaman kopi.

• Tanah dan sistem budidaya, membangun sistem produksi yang lebih sehat dan tangguh menghadapi perubahan iklim.

Salah satu contoh yang menarik adalah Yunnan Coffee No. 2, yang dilaporkan memperoleh skor cita rasa (cup score) 86,75 dalam sebuah evaluasi yang dipublikasikan.

Hal ini menunjukkan bahwa kopi yang tumbuh di dataran rendah tidak serta-merta memiliki kualitas yang lebih rendah.

Kisah ini tidak hanya tentang Arabika.

Liberika, spesies kopi yang pemanfaatannya relatif belum optimal sekaligus merupakan sumber daya genetik yang berharga, juga mulai menarik perhatian karena potensinya untuk beradaptasi dengan berbagai kondisi lingkungan.

Ketika suhu meningkat dan ancaman kekeringan, perubahan pola hujan, serta tekanan hama semakin besar, keragaman genetik dapat menjadi salah satu kunci untuk membangun industri kopi yang lebih tangguh menghadapi perubahan iklim.

Lantas, apa yang bisa dipelajari Vietnam dari perkembangan ini?

Dataran Tinggi Pagar Alam (Pasemah Highlands), yang merupakan wilayah utama penghasil Robusta negara tersebut, juga menghadapi tantangan berupa peningkatan suhu, kekeringan, dan keterbatasan ketersediaan air.

Alih-alih hanya berfokus pada perluasan areal produksi atau memindahkan kebun kopi ke dataran yang lebih tinggi,
industri kopi dapat memberikan perhatian lebih besar pada:

• Pemilihan varietas yang sesuai dengan kondisi setempat.

• Peningkatan efisiensi penggunaan air.

• Pengembangan sistem pohon penaung yang tepat.

• Penerapan agroforestri dan perbaikan kesehatan tanah.

• Pemanfaatan data cuaca dan pertanian presisi.

• Penguatan pengendalian mutu, mulai dari kebun hingga pengolahan pascapanen.

Masa depan kopi mungkin tidak hanya ditentukan oleh “di mana kopi ditanam”,
tetapi juga oleh “bagaimana kopi dibudidayakan”.

Bahwasanya rantai pasok kopi yang tangguh dimulai dari pemahaman tentang keterkaitan antara genetika, asal-usul kopi, ekologi, budidaya, pengolahan, dan kualitas.

Bagaimana menurut Anda?
Apakah masa depan kopi mengharuskan kita menanamnya di dataran yang lebih tinggi, atau justru sistem budidaya yang lebih baik dapat membuka potensi wilayah dataran rendah?

11/10/2026

Vietnam Memulai Musim Kopi Baru di Tengah Stabilnya Harga Domestik dan Kekhawatiran Kualitas di Brasil

Vietnam, produsen kopi Robusta terbesar di dunia, secara resmi memulai musim panen kopi barunya pada 1 Oktober 2026, meskipun para pedagang memperkirakan pasokan pasar yang terbatas hingga awal November.

Harga kopi domestik di Dataran Tinggi Tengah tetap stabil, berkisar antara 94.000 hingga 94.800 VND per kilogram, mencerminkan sentimen pasar yang hati-hati karena pembeli menunggu sinyal harga yang lebih jelas.

Meskipun ada sedikit tren penurunan pada harga berjangka kopi di bursa internasional, analis memperkirakan bahwa biaya logistik yang tinggi dan permintaan ekspor akhir tahun yang kuat akan mendukung harga kopi Vietnam.

Sementara itu, panen kopi Brasil tahun 2026 hampir selesai tetapi menghadapi masalah kualitas yang signifikan karena curah hujan berlebihan yang disebabkan oleh El Niño, yang menyebabkan Cooxupe, koperasi kopi terbesar di Brasil, menolak biji kopi dengan kadar air tinggi dan kontaminasi mikotoksin, sehingga menimbulkan kekhawatiran tentang ketersediaan kopi Brasil berkualitas ekspor.

Gudang Kopi Pagar Alam

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