27/02/2019
*Global Markets Update*
27th Feb 2019
*USDINR*
Yesterday USDINR opened gap up at 71.26 vs previous day's close at 70.9850 on account of domestic geopolitical fears post India's air strike against Pak. The pair immediately touched a high of 71.3450. However as the uncertainty subsided, Rupee recouped most of the losses and touched 70.99. Foreign banks were seen on offer for most part of the day. The pair traded range bound post the initial mayhem, largely between 71.00-71.10, finally closing at 71.0725. Overnight dollar traded softer after feds chief's dovish testimony. USD INR is likely to open at 71.10 levels and trade in a range of 70.80-71.25.
*Forwards*
Yesterday, tracking Dollar Inr spot , the premium for the month of January opened higher at 265.50 level. Further with weakness in rupee on the news of escalating border tensions between India and pakistan we saw paying throughout the curve and touched a high of 266.25 and a low of 264 with closing at 266.25 levels. Today we expect the premiums to open between 264.5/266.5 and may trade between 263-268 with further direction from spot rupee.
1y annualized yield is at 4.06% and is expected to be in the range of 4.04 - 4.08%.
*FX Derivatives*
U.S. treasury yields fell on back of
comments from Fed Chair Powell, who reiterated the central bank’s dovish monetary-policy stance. 10Y benchmark fell by 4bps to 2.6340% while 30Y slipped by 1.5bps to 3.00%. 2Y rate is at 2.4840%.
In domestic market, Mifor traded with a flattish bias as 2Y, 3Y and 5Y (mid) closed at 6.8350%, 6.9450% and 7.0650% resp. Today MIFOR is expected to trade with a mild receiving bias. ATMF Vols 1W(mid) spiked by 65 bps to close at 6.40% 1M & 3M(mid) vols closed higher by 15bps and 7bps at 6.4650% and 8.8850% resp. 6M(mid) closed flat at 7.8250%. 1Y(mid) ticked higher by 2bps to 7.1400% resp. We expect vols to trade steady today.
*Rates*
Indian bond market opened weaker on account of report that Indian fighter jets bombed terror camp inside Pakistan, raising concern of further escalation but later recovered tracking rupee and equity market along with OMO expectations. Previous benchmark 7.17 28 closed at 7.59, compared to previous closing of 7.58, the new benchmark closed at 7.42% compared to previous closing of 7.41%. OIS 1 year closed at 6.24 compared to the earlier closing of 6.25 while 5 year OIS closed at 6.32 compared to an earlier close of 6.33. Against market expectation of around 50 K of OMO , RBI has announced 25 K of OMO, although it's only for one fortnight. Rising crude price against falling US inventory may also dampen the sentiment. Expect 7.17 28 to be in the range of 7.58-7.62, new benchmark in the range of 7.41-7.44, while OIS 1 year in the range of 6.23-6.26 and 5 year in the range of 6.31-6.34 for the day.
*Equities*
Yesterday, despite positive global cues, Indian equity Markets opened in deep red as the news came that Indian Air Force strikes at terrorist camps in pakistan early morning. However Nifty managed to recover most of its losses and closed down by 45 points at 10835 whereas Sensex closed at 35974, down by 240 points. Sectorally, selected IT along with cement and auto stocks were up whereas financials were under pressure. On cash front, FIIs were net buyers to the tune of 1674 crs, while DII sold net of 720 crs. Today Nifty is expected to open positive and will be volatile due to rising geopolitical tensions and monthly expiry ahead. Nifty is likely to trade in a range of 10720-10900.
*Crosses*
Dollar fell against major currencies as Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell said central bank will remain patient on monetary policy. Fed has paused on its pace of rate hikes as it evaluates headwing in domestic economy and abroad. He said that rising risk and recent soft data were unlikely to prevent solid growth for US economy. Dollar index traded in the range between 96.46 to 95.948 and is currently at 96.10. Pound gained against dollar as labour party said it would put forward an amendment for second referendum on Brexit. It raised the expectations among investors that UK will try to extend deadline. UK Prime Minister also offered chance to lawmakers to vote for delaying Brexit. GBP touched a high of 1.3288. Euro traded in the range between 1.1402 to 1.1345. Dollar was little changed against yen at 110.56. AUD was higher at 0.7195. XAU range for the day is 1324 to 1334.