10/06/2020
25% of all Indian imports are from China.
2% of all Chinese exports are to India.
That in a nutshell should explain why boycotting Chinese products will impact India more than it will impact China.
The sentiment has my respect. Our soldiers are dealing with Chinese bullying in Ladakh and as citizens who love this nation, we want to do our part. But emotions have rarely translated to hard impact. We need to see the facts.
We import all these items from China: Essential pharmaceutical drugs that help us make antibiotics, and medicines for tuberculosis, textiles, solar products, computers, phones, fertilizers, machines, electronics, gems, all the items that our industries depend on.
Chinese technology investors have put in an estimated $4 billion into Indian startups. According to the report, 18 of Indiaโs 30 unicorns are now Chinese-funded. Apart from Paytm, Ola, BigBasket, top Indian tech companies that have Chinese investors include Byjuโs, MakeMyTrip, Zomato and Swiggy.
Chinese phones and apps are now household names. Chinese phones have 53% of the Indian smartphone under them with leading brands like Xiaomi, One Plus, Oppo and Vivo used by millions of Indians in both urban and rural places.
Chinese apps like TikTok, PUBG, Xender, UC Browser, LIKEE and CamScanner are also used on a daily basis.
With that heavy dependence, going from the status quo to using no Chinese goods will be a drastic step that has to be padded with alternatives.
Thus rather than jumping straight into "How" can we boycott Chinese goods, a more beneficial perspective will be to ponder "Why" did we end up in such a heavy China-dependent situation.
China wasn't all that rich but from 1991 to 2011, there were just 2 years when their growth rate fell below 8%. The consistent growth for 25 years compounded making their economy grow by 700%!
During the period between 1991 and 2011, Chinaโs working population increased to 782.6 million from 648 million. That is a growth of about 6.6 million a year. However, between 2005 and 2011, Chinaโs worker population grew by only 16 million, and between 2011 and 2017 it grew by a much smaller number of just 4 million.
With a growing surplus of wealth and lowering working population, China is getting nudged towards a exports driven economy.
There is another reason why China is a success in India. They are just like us! Not physically but culturally and economically, they understand us. India to them is what they were a decade before and so they have the advantage of knowing where we are going.
Indiaโs per capita today is the same as Chinaโs per capita 12 years ago. Korea was at the same level 36 years ago, and Japan 48 years ago. It is not that the other Asian rivals donโt understand the Indian consumer; it is just that it is much easier for the Chinese because they have sold to a similar market in the recent past.
The spending boom, the technology boom. Competition with limited understanding of the market, the need for scale, low cost of capital, and so on. The Indian market is similar to how theirs was a few years ago.
Many of the engagement models that worked in China also work in India โ Deep discounts, micro-payments, freebies, fake accounts, sexually suggestive content.
Indiaโs large population fits nicely into Chinese companiesโ large-scale mindset.
The Indian market requires a high degree of flexibility in changing business models and the Chinese are quite adept culturally to change as per needs. They are also quite humble and self-deprecating and rarely talk ill of their rivals. This makes them a much more open mind to adapt to change.
The Chinese take a deep interest in understanding people, their behavior, their psyche, which Indians are usually bad at. They have understood our rural market better than our Indian leaders, their motivations, their desires, their limitations, this is a fundamental reason they can build like we cannot.
Battling China is like battling the future version of ourselves. The only way we can stand up to them is to go ahead faster, improve our own manufacturing industry, get more people skilled, improve our entrepreneurship opportunities, and yes, also learn from the Chinese success story. If they can why can we not?
A reason the boycott movement is being critiqued is that it is making us feel that countering China is as easy as uninstalling few apps from our Chinese phones. No, the long term solution is hard. Rather than being reactionary, we will have to fix our institutional problems as China did.
Sources:
https://yourstory.com/journal/how-made-in-china-became-one-of-indias-most-recogn-sgshhp67l1
https://www.prsindia.org/report-summaries/impact-chinese-goods-indian-industry
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/china-fdi-constraints-may-put-tech-startups-in-a-spot-11587317637614.html