বাঙালির শেয়ার বাজার - ফান্ডামেন্টাল এনালাইসিস

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বাঙালির শেয়ার বাজার - ফান্ডামেন্টাল এনালাইসিস 𝗡𝗜𝗦𝗠- 𝗖𝗘𝗥𝗧𝗜𝗙𝗜𝗘𝗗 𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗘𝗔𝗥𝗖𝗛 𝗔𝗡𝗔𝗟𝗬𝗦𝗧 (𝗥𝗔)


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At present, fear and frustration are dominating retail investors, which is why many of them are selling shares in panic....
09/01/2026

At present, fear and frustration are dominating retail investors, which is why many of them are selling shares in panic.

When small-cap and mid-cap stocks fall sharply in a short period, it clearly shows panic selling by retail investors.

Continuous selling by FIIs increases frustration among retail investors. When the market keeps falling for a long time, many investors lose patience and finally sell their stocks at a loss.

During such times, fundamentals stop working — both good and bad stocks fall together.

We saw the same situation in February–March 2025, when our portfolio was also impacted more than usual.

History shows that this type of panic selling usually happens in the final phase of a bear market.

This panic selling has been going on for the last two months and may continue for some more time in January 2026.

When FIIs sell, large-cap stocks usually fall the most.
But when retail investors panic and sell, small-cap and mid-cap stocks get hit the hardest.

This period of fear is actually the preparation phase for the next big rally, because valuations are slowly becoming attractive.

So, the real reason for the market fall is not Trump or global news.
The real issue was excessive valuation.

Until valuations return to normal levels, a strong bull market is difficult to start.

In short:
Fear + frustration = panic selling.
And at the end of panic selling, new opportunities are usually created.

Thank you,

CHANDAN DEY
NISM-Certified Research Analyst (RA)
Reg. Number: NISM-202500109242

01/01/2026

*সকলকে নতুন বছরের শুভেচ্ছা ২০২৬*

নতুন বছরে আপনাদের ও আপনাদের পরিবারের জন্য সুস্বাস্থ্য, সুখ এবং আর্থিক সমৃদ্ধি কামনা করি।
২০২৬ সাল আপনার বিনিয়োগ যাত্রায় যেন স্বচ্ছতা, শৃঙ্খলা ও ধৈর্য নিয়ে আসে।

মনে রাখবেন—শেয়ার বাজারে সম্পদ গঠন কখনোই শর্টকাটে হয় না; সঠিক মানসিকতা, যথাযথ সেক্টর নির্বাচন এবং দীর্ঘমেয়াদি দৃষ্টিভঙ্গির মাধ্যমেই তা সম্ভব।
বিশেষ করে অস্থির বাজার পরিস্থিতিতে ফান্ডামেন্টালস, সেক্টর রোটেশন এবং রিস্ক ম্যানেজমেন্টের উপর মনোযোগ রাখা অত্যন্ত জরুরি।
অপ্রয়োজনীয় আওয়াজ ও সোশ্যাল মিডিয়ার হাইপ এড়িয়ে চলুন, ডেটা ও অভিজ্ঞতার ভিত্তিতে গড়ে ওঠা প্রক্রিয়ার উপর আস্থা রাখুন।

আপনাদের বিশ্বাস ও সমর্থনের জন্য আমি আন্তরিকভাবে কৃতজ্ঞ। নতুন বছরে একসঙ্গে শেখা ও এগিয়ে চলার প্রত্যাশা রাখি।

সব বিনিয়োগকারীদের জন্য ২০২৬ সাল হোক লাভজনক, শৃঙ্খলাবদ্ধ ও সফল—এই শুভকামনা।

10/12/2025

Upcoming FED Meeting 🎯

Tightening or Easing? ❓

No one knows for sure what the decision will be yet. But remember, a rate cut is definitely needed.

To get a strong bullish market soon, all the parameters need to turn positive.

First: RBI has already cut the repo rate – this is positive.
Second: US bond yields are now quite normal.
Third: In India, Q3 corporate results are very likely to be good.
And if the FED announces easing after tomorrow’s meeting, it will definitely be a big relief for our market.

One thing that still needs to be watched is the Bank of Japan’s meeting on 19th December and the decision they take. Based on technical charts, I have a personal view about it.
(I am saying this today—after 19th December, I will tag this message.)

Overall, it can be said that the environment for a bull market is gradually being created.

Now look at social media—many analysts keep sharing their opinions. The FED meeting is truly important, but how many of them have you actually seen talking seriously about it or discussing its possible impact? ❓

Many of them don’t even know what will happen tomorrow or what effect it may have. They also don’t give importance to advanced tools or macro-economic data.

At the end of the day, they only know how to tell people buy, sell, or hold a stock. So please be careful. Everyone should invest with proper knowledge. To become a successful investor, good guidance is necessary—just like I also have guides and have continuously learned from others.

I have seen many groups where, in the name of stock market discussion, it’s mostly just entertainment. This is not criticism, but we all earn our money through hard work, so self-analysis is very important.

I want our Bengali community to learn about the market, understand it, and become successful investors. That is why I keep making these efforts.
Remember, there is no paid membership in our premium group. In this group, I share only partial discussions. Many people are serious about learning and message me personally—I really appreciate that.

Thank you.

From July to November 2025, my prediction of continuous FII selling proved accurate, and that is why the market stayed w...
01/12/2025

From July to November 2025, my prediction of continuous FII selling proved accurate, and that is why the market stayed weak despite heavy DII buying. When FIIs sell, returns become difficult and volatility increases, causing heavy losses for many traders.

I analyse DII–FII data daily, which helps predict market direction more reliably than chart patterns. If FIIs are likely to sell, the market usually stays weak — exactly what we saw from July to November.

Next week, I will share whether FIIs may buy or sell in December 2025. Using this method, we also spotted the 2024 bear phase early and shifted 70% of the portfolio to safety. Protecting capital before a bear phase begins is always the smartest move.

We are still in a bear market, and the index is not reflecting the real situation in most portfolios. Despite new all-ti...
25/11/2025

We are still in a bear market, and the index is not reflecting the real situation in most portfolios. Despite new all-time highs, the market is being held up mainly by DIIs through selective buying supported by strong SIP inflows.

Your portfolio is unlikely to rise meaningfully before the Q3 results. Until then, the market is expected to remain largely sideways with occasional volatility near index highs.

The final stage of any bear market is the most painful, and 2025 is likely to remain challenging. The only hope for improvement now depends on the upcoming Q3 earnings.

When DIIs push the market up by buying only a few selected stocks, the rise becomes artificial. Because of strong SIP in...
21/11/2025

When DIIs push the market up by buying only a few selected stocks, the rise becomes artificial. Because of strong SIP inflows, DIIs keep supporting the index and stop the market from correcting naturally. Whenever the market starts to fall, they again step in and bring it back near all-time highs.

This creates a big problem for retail investors. Their portfolios don’t rise even when the index goes up, and they lose again when the market comes down. So retail investors suffer in both directions because the movement of the market is not natural.

If SIP inflows were lower, the market would have corrected properly by now, and a healthy rally could start. But continuous DII buying has kept valuations high and made the entire market more complicated for retail investors.

13/11/2025

Total 5 stocks booked profit in today’s swing trades:

✅ BELRISE
✅ INTERARCH
✅ JAMNA AUTO
✅ DIACABS
✅ GVT&D

No further profit booking is expected today. 😁

Join our Stock Market WhatsApp Group 👇🏻
https://wa.me/919475940615?text=Hello%2C%20I%20want%20to%20know%20about%20your%20services.%20I%20am%20a%20swing%20trader%20and%20interested%20in%20investing%20in%20multibagger%20stocks.

A new Bengali stock market discussion group has been created for analysis and market insights. You’re welcome to join!

CHANDAN DEY
NISM-Certified Research Analyst (RA)
Reg. No. – NISM-202500109242

12/11/2025

"Stallion India" is showing steady recovery ever since the promoters stopped selling.

👉 The market looks green, but have you noticed your stocks aren’t moving up? That’s because DIIs are playing smart, keeping the index high by selectively pumping heavyweight stocks.
Today, Adani Enterprises, Reliance, Tech Mahindra, and TCS are holding Nifty up.
Tomorrow, it’ll be a different set of large caps — just to maintain the illusion of strength.

But FIIs know this game well — and that’s why every time the market approaches its all-time high, they trigger heavy selling and push it back down. ⚠️

After hitting an all-time high, the stock market is now witnessing strong profit booking, especially in small- and mid-c...
06/11/2025

After hitting an all-time high, the stock market is now witnessing strong profit booking, especially in small- and mid-cap indices.

Experts say this is a normal correction phase after a sharp rally, as investors look to secure recent gains.

Even fundamentally strong stocks have seen some decline, reflecting the overall bearish sentiment in the market.

Analysts believe the market is still in a bear phase, where such ups and downs are part of the natural cycle.

In every bear market, stocks typically either consolidate or correct after short rallies — and what we’re seeing now is just a healthy sign of correction, not a cause for panic.”

Thangamalai Jewellery –Last year, when the market was shifting from a bull phase to a bear phase, I had bought this stoc...
04/11/2025

Thangamalai Jewellery –

Last year, when the market was shifting from a bull phase to a bear phase, I had bought this stock. However, I had to exit it after about two months with nearly an 11% loss.

Since then, during this one-year bearish market, I haven’t traded this stock again.

In the last two days, the stock has moved up by a total of 32%!

I had been holding a swing position in this stock for about 10 days, but I booked profits yesterday with just a 7% gain — though I never expected it to move this much afterward.

03/11/2025

Booked profits in 6 stocks today 😁 — it was truly an amazing day in swing trading!

INTERARCH
GVT&D
JSLL
ACUTAAS
EPACKPEB
INTELLECT

🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️🏌🏻‍♂️

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