30/04/2023
Analysis of the last ๐ฐ๐ฏ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ฎ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐ฆ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐๐ซ
๐ฐ There were around ๐ญ๐ญ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐๐ in the last 43 years.
๐ฐ Observations on positive and negative return occurrences.
๐๐ฎ๐ถ๐น๐ - 53% time Positive and 47% time Negative.
๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ๐น๐ - 56% time Positive and 44% time Negative
๐ ๐ผ๐ป๐๐ต๐น๐ - 61% time Positive and 39% time Negative
๐ค๐๐ฎ๐ฟ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐น๐- 64% time Positive and 36% time Negative
๐ฌ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐น๐ - 72% time Positive and 28% time Negative
๐ฏ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ - 89% time Positive and 11% time Negative
๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐- 96% time Positive and 4% time Negative
๐ญ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐- 100% time Positive and 0% time Negative
๐ฐ SENSEX delivered ๐ญ๐ฑ.๐ฑ% ๐๐๐๐ฅ returns over the last 43 years.
๐ฐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐ฎ๐น ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ dispersion (CAGR)
๐ญ๐ต๐ด๐ฌ-๐ญ๐ต๐ต๐ฌ - 21.6%
๐ญ๐ต๐ต๐ฌ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ - 14.3%
๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ -17.8%
๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฌ-๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฌ - 8.8%.*
2020~ 2022 - 24.8%
๐ฐ BSE Sensex returns 15.5%, if we add an average dividend yield of 1.4% for the last 43 years.
At 16.9% compounding the value of BSE is actually around ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฌ,๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐น๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐น.๐
๐ฐ Longest ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ was from 1994 to 2003. 9 years in total.
๐ฐ Since 2002, in the last 18 years ๐ก๐ข ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด๐น๐ฒ ๐ณ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฟ๐ผ๐น๐น๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐๐ถ๐๐ต๐ผ๐๐ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐.
This means since 2002 if you ever invested and kept money for a minimum period of 7 years then you would have ๐ป๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐น๐ผ๐๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ๐.
๐ฐ But what is most surprising and rewarding has been the performance of actively managed equity funds. Here are the data:
๐๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ด๐ผ๐ฟ๐๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฟ๐ป๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐ฟ ๐ฎ๐ฌ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ (๐๐๐๐ฅ)
๐๐๐ฏ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฑ - 15.96%
๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐ณ๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฑ -16.25%
๐๐๐ฆ๐ฆ - 18.20%
**๐๐น๐น ๐๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ - 16.41%*
** excluding LIC/JM/Taurus/Quant MF schemes.
๐ฐ ๐ฆ๐๐ก๐ฆ๐๐ซ ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ๐ ๐ฏ๐ด๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐๐ป๐ฒ ๐ญ๐ต๐ต๐ฒ (๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฏ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ธ).
In the last 26 years, average-ex MF delivered 18% CAGR.
Had Sensex delivered as much as average MF schemes then the value of BSE Sensex should have been:
At 16.4% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 1,70,000 levels
At 18% CAGR, SENSEX should be around 2,38,000 levels.
Isn't this amazing !
