29/03/2021
Correctly estimating how long it takes us to complete a task is more important than we think. 👍 👉 It is crucial: it will earn respect and gratitude from clients, colleagues, and bosses, not to mention friends who don't have to wait for us.
Research suggests that even our worst-case scenarios are often way too optimistic.
Why is it so tricky to make this estimate? Our memory is notoriously biased, and we will remember clearly that one time we made it in 15 minutes. So we often take that as a good measure, even when we regularly need more time. We do not (want to) consider that the circumstances of that estimate might be the one-time-only lucky event.
To get an accurate estimate, we need data and experience:
👉 Time yourself; challenge that timing; add extra padding, especially if it's a hard deadline; gather more data; how often does it work? Revise your estimate.
You cannot rely on things going smoothly; remember Murphy's law (and a ship stuck in the Suez canal in March 2021).🚢