Decrypt Edge Consultants

06/08/2022

Thoughts on the market as of 06.08.2022.

Bitcoin during the day was in the range of $23,467 - $22,760 and at the time of writing the review, its trading for $23,202. Total crypto market capitalization is at $1.097 Trillion, BTC, ETH dominance index of 40.4% and 19.0% fear index 31.

American indices are practically in place, Dow Jones rose 0.23%, NASDAQ lost 0.50%, S&P 500 shed 0.16% to close at 4145. The dollar index rose significantly and closed at 106.42, resuming its upward trend.

Yesterday's strong data on the US labor market had a negative effect on the market, as it may lead to more aggressive actions by the Fed in September. Before the release of these data, the probability of raising the rate by 0.75% was estimated at 40.5%, after the release, the probability of such an outcome is already at 62%. Yields on 10-year bonds and the dollar index also rose, in general the markets reacted calmly to the prospects of a 0.75% rate hike. If there are no unexpected shocks in geopolitics, the S&P 500 will drop significantly below 3800. Despite the Fed’s loud statements, it will soon return to the usual policy of generating money, since they have no other choice.

Bloomberg suddenly discovered that most of the G20 countries are not eager to isolate Russia. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-05/the-us-led-drive-to-isolate-russia-and-china-is-falling-short).

On the crypto market, everything is according to plan - for the weekend we left with Bitcoin above $23K, the market capitalization is growing and the dominance index is falling. Bitcoin is now in a large range with a lower boundary at $20, 800 - $21,200 and an upper boundary at $23,800 - $24,200. Inside this large range, there is a small range with an upper boundary at $23,400- $23,600 and a lower boundary at $22,400- $22,600, in which Bitcoin is likely to remain until Monday.

The dominance index is already extremely low. It will not stay at such values for a long time, everything should end either with Bitcoin falling to $20,800- $21,200 and a stronger fall of alts, or Bitcoin fixing above $24,200 with further movement towards $28K. We are more probability to steer sideways with a bias on a fall.

According to Glassnode, 65% of BTC supply has not moved in over a year. More and more people begin to understand the essence of the asset and act wisely. During such periods, the markets need those kinds of people. Crypto assets should be consolidated with the strong and confident. Those who like to sell an asset on a fall, and then wait for it below, should look at the growth that occurs without them and understand how much more work needs to be done on themselves. Regardless, find your sweet spot against your risk exposure.

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

05/08/2022

Thoughts on the market on 05.08.2022

Bitcoin during the day was in the range of $23,183- $22,400 and at the time of writing the review, its trading for $22,829.

Market capitalization $1.080 Trillion, BTC, ETH dominance index 40.5% and 18.8% , fear index 31.

Stock markets closed in a mix yesterday, The Dow Jones declined 0.26%, the NASDAQ gained 0.41% and the S&P 500 shed 0.08% to close at 4151. Same story today only the Russell has seen a 0.55% raise today. The dollar index fell to 105.7, but has now bounced back to 106.9 as of this writing.

Oil is a promising asset in the medium term, the recent decline occurred against the backdrop of a falling demand due to the recession and the growth of inventories. With a probability to introduce restrictions on oil exports from Russia, then the price of oil may reach figures that are completely unusual for the eye, the price of gas, which, against the backdrop of the story with the Siemens turbine, has reached 2100, and has every chance of growing further. A stand-off over the return of a turbine that Russia says is holding back gas supplies to Europe showed no sign of being resolved on Thursday, with Moscow saying it needed documentation to confirm the equipment was not subject to sanctions. (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kremlin-says-gazprom-would-like-nord-stream-turbine-back-needs-documents-2022-08-04/) For the lack of full-fledged sovereignty and inability to protect their economic interests, EU countries have to pay dearly.

We have a possibility of a 4% Fed rate and a 0.75% hike in September. For now, market participants consider a 0.5% increase more likely. The market is still optimistic, but the growth of indices stopped yesterday and profit-taking is likely today before the weekend.

There is data on the labor market in the US. The market will react according to the principle “The worse, the better”, because. the worse the data on the labor market, the more likely the minimum rate hike by the Fed. Coinbase has been doing poorly recently and its stock has been bottoming out. But yesterday on the back of the news of the partnership with BlackRock, the shares soared to 116, (nearly 44%), giving those who did not sell them cheap, to take a decent profit.

Interestingly, shortly before this, the ARK Investment Management fund sold a large amount of shares at a price of less than 55 per share. The conclusion is that big money managers often behave like deer, selling assets at the bottom, or buying at the peak with leverage. However, the situation with the bankruptcies of crypto funds in May-June has already confirmed this.

Market expectations today are similar to yesterday - Bitcoin is in the range with the upper limit of $23,800- $24,200 and the lower one at $22,600- $22,400. If Bitcoin goes below $22,400 with consolidation, a decrease to $21,200- $20,800 is possible.

For further growth, it is necessary to fix above $24,200, in this case, the next target will be the resistance area at $24,800- $25,000. Considering the dominance index, if it leaves the range up, a rapid movement to $28K is possible, and if we leave for the weekend with Bitcoin above $23K, we will see a good growth of altcoins.

Our biased view as BTC may fail to hit $28K this time and we looking for a breakdown to $17,500 / $15,700 / $13,200 / $11,500 etc. If this happens directly then we think this might be the shortest downside cycle for BTC, as shared from back Jun 22nd 2022(https://t.me/decryptedge/1146)

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

04/08/2022

Thoughts on the market as of 04.08.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of 23630-22725 during the day and at the time of writing the review, it's worth $23,072. Market capitalization $1.071 Trillion, BTC, ETH dominance index 40% and 18.5%, fear index 30.

Stock markets were up yesterday, the Dow Jones rose 1.29%, the NASDAQ gained 2.59% and the S&P 500 gained 1.56% to close at 4155. The dollar index rose and is now above 106.28

Oil fell below 97 (BRENT) against the backdrop of OPEC +'s statement to increase production in September by 100,000 barrels per day. President Joe Biden said that “there is no recession in the economy,” and Wikipedia even changed the definition of a recession for the United States and blocked further editing of the text, how about the independence of global information resources?

However, there is optimism in the markets. Stock markets are rising, the S&P 500 is approaching 4200, the yield of 10-year US bonds is falling. Market participants believe that the Fed will soon slow down with the tightening of monetary policy. The reason is that the peak of inflation has allegedly already been passed, the economy is shrinking, therefore, if the Fed raises the rate, it will not be so vigorous, and in 2023 it will begin to reduce it. Perhaps, market participants are right that the Fed will start generating dollars soon. The reason may be targeted assistance to combat price increases, the Russian or Chinese threat, the fight against monkeypox or another type of coronavirus. When there is no other way out, the cause will not be.

Everything is going well on the crypto market. A combination of external and internal negative factors (bankruptcies of companies and funds, the collapse of LUNA, mass liquidations and forced sales in the crypto market, taking place against the backdrop of falling stock markets) had a cleansing effect. Panic holders, deer and other weak and cowardly hands are freed from crypto assets, and the markets have become extremely resistant to negativity. Even the news about the sale of a significant part of Bitcoin by TESLA did not cause a market reaction.

At the same time, there is no euphoria and expectations of rapid growth in the market. The fear index has just moved out of the zone of extreme fear into the zone of normal. Some “influencers” are now starting to talk about Bitcoin at 12K or even below 10K and calling for short positions or waiting for Bitcoin at 2020 levels.

Expectations for the market today - https://t.me/decryptedge/1176

This is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

03/08/2022

Thoughts on the market on 3.08.2022.

Bitcoin was in the range of $23,460-$22,650 during the day and at the time of writing, Bitcoin is worth $22,900. Market capitalization $1.059 Trillion, BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.2% and 18.9%, Fear index 34.

Stock markets fell yesterday, the Dow Jones fell 1.23%, the S&P 500 lost 0.67% and the NASDAQ lost 0.16%. Gold and silver also fell. The dollar index rose above 106. Markets fell due to geopolitical tensions between the United States and China as we mentioned yesterday. (https://t.me/decryptedge/1174 )Imagine how a “lady” should be pleased because of such an amount of attention, only online more than 3 million users watched her flight, not to mention the preparations on the ground - people, equipment and everyone are worried whether it will fly or not fly. There were no salutes, but maybe it was for the best. After landing, everyone exhaled and the markets began to grow, bitcoin at the moment showed a local maximum at $23,460, but then the Chinese side announced that it would conduct exercises near Taiwan (the island would be in a ring) and then everyone tensed up again and returned to their original position.

Today, most likely, everyone is already tired of such a price movement, but this is a market and the one who knows how to wait has success. Therefore, the expectations remains the same. For further growth, Bitcoin needs to overcome the resistance area at $23,800- $24,200 and gain a foothold above. If we do not take these resistances, we remain in the range with the upper limit at $24,000- $24,200 and the lower limit at $20,800- $21,000.

Interesting moves, Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO of MicroStrategy and will now take over as executive chairman of the company. Source (https://cointelegraph.com/news/michael-saylor-will-step-down-as-microstrategy-ceo-but-will-remain-executive-chair). was , scammers gained access to the assets of Solana network users - at the moment, more than 8,000 crypto wallets (Phantom, Trust Wallet and Slope) have been affected, from which SOL, USDC and SPL were withdrawn for about $ 10 million. If there is still an opportunity, then it is better to withdraw to exchange. Source (https://cointelegraph.com/news/ongoing-solana-based-wallet-hack-has-already-seen-millions-drained).

This is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

02/08/2022

Thoughts on the market on 2.08.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $23,500- $22,750 during the day and at the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is worth $22,900.

Market capitalization $1.054 Trillion, BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.6%, 18.3%. Fear index 31. Stock markets fell yesterday. The Dow Jones plunged 0.14%, the S&P 500 shed 0.28% and the NASDAQ shed 0.18%. Gold, silver and oil sank a little. The dollar index also fell slightly to 105.35.

This week, the key event for the market will be the publication of the July report on the US labor market, which will be on Friday. Analysts expect jobs to rise by 250,000 after rising 372,000 in June. Everything sank on the crypto market too, Bitcoin could not hold $23K and rolled back to the level of $22,750, but everything was range given last week. Stocks in China and Hong Kong opened down 3 percent. Ethereum is down 6% in the last 24 hours. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in next 24h could raise the risk of war between China and the U.S., causing turmoil in global capital markets.

The outlook remains the same as long as nothing significant has happened in the market. In the event the dollar index bounces back from 104.6 or thereabouts then we shall see further drain in crypto. With continued cool off, then sideways movement.

For further growth, Bitcoin needs to overcome the resistance area at $23,800- $24,200 and gain a foothold above. If we do not take these resistances, we remain in the range with the upper limit at $24,000- $24,200 and the lower limit at $20,800- $21,000.

From an interesting, sold $408.9 million worth of XRP in Q2 2022. Contrary of what one reads and at the same time encouraging . New York Attorney General Letitia James today issued an investor alert: New Yorkers who have been affected by the dramatic devaluations of the Terra and Luna virtual currencies and the account freezes on cryptocurrency staking or earning programs, such as Anchor, Celsius, Voyager, and Stablegains, are strongly encouraged to contact OAG’s Investor Protection Bureau. Lastly, SEC Charges Eleven Individuals in $300 Million Crypto Pyramid Scheme – . The alleged Fraudulent blockchain scheme spanned multiple countries including U.S., Russia and . https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2022-134

This is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

Press Release SEC Charges Eleven Individuals in $300 Million Crypto Pyramid Scheme Alleged Fraudulent Blockchain Scheme Spanned Multiple Countries Including U.S., Russia FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE 2022-134 Washington D.C., Aug. 1, 2022 — The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged 11 individua...

01/08/2022

Thoughts on the Crypto market on 1.08.2022.

Bitcoin was in the range of $24,670- $23,230 over the weekend and at the time of writing the review, it is worth $23,350.

Market capitalization 1088 billion,
BTC, ETH, dominance index of 41.0% and 18.9%
Fear index 33.

Stock markets opened in a mixed format. Asian indices show growth, the dollar index is falling and is already at 105.645, futures for S & P 500 are in the red by 0.45%, gold, silver, and oil also show a negative.

Markets may be affected by the situation in Serbia and Kosovo, which are now on the verge of a military conflict. Yesterday there were many statements from one side and the other, but now everything seems to have calmed down and all movements have been postponed until September. It all started because the Kosovo authorities wanted to launch a military operation against the Serbs living in the north of the partially recognized state and block the entry of everyone who does not have Kosovo documents, and will also forcibly re-register Serbian car numbers to local ones.

On the crypto market, everything is within the review which was given last Thursday (https://t.me/decryptedge/1169). For further growth, Bitcoin needs to overcome the resistance area at $23,800- $24,200 and gain a foothold above. In this case, the most likely option is an increase to $27,000- $28,000.

If we do not take these resistances, we remain in the range with the upper limit at $24,000- $24,200 and the lower limit at $20,800-$21,000

As reported by , Binance is said to have lost 90% of customers after implementing KYC, losing billions in revenue. However, the data shows that its trading volume is still huge, even more than other cryptocurrency exchanges combined.

This is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

30/07/2022

Thoughts on the market as of 30.07. 2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $24,440- $23,410 during the day and at the time of writing the review, it's worth $23,800.

Total crypto market capitalization of $1.098 Trillion,
BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.5% and 19.0%
Fear index 42.

Stock markets were up yesterday. The Dow Jones rose 0.97% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 rose 1.42% and the NASDAQ rose 1.88%. The dollar index continues to decline and has already fallen by 0.51% to 105.70. Oil, gas, gold, silver and other commodities also showed growth. The growing tension between the US and China may overshadow future prospects. If a conflict starts over Taiwan, then for the markets it will be a repeat of March 2020 or even worse.

Nothing much has changed on the crypto market, the outlook is the same - the resistance area still holds, Bitcoin is still in the range with the upper limit at $24,000- $24,200 and the lower limit at $20,800- $21,000. Chances are we shall maintain the range over the weekend, and any exit above will be a false breakdown.

The trial between Elon Musk and Twitter has been scheduled for 17 October. Elon Musk looks like he deliberately brought the case to court in order to get information on the number of bots through it, and if the figure turns out to be more than the one provided by Twitter, then the parties will change places right there. In any case, Musk's purchase of the social network will be a good incentive for Bitcoin and the entire market.

FTX received Dubai's first virtual asset service provider mvp license, The guys are developing at full speed. The MVP “Minimum Viable Product’ programme is to deploy regulated crypto derivatives products, trading services and NFT market to Qualified Institutional Investors across the region. Miles across, Apple posted an associate creative director of content vacancy for a Web3 specialist, there will be interesting news from the company soon. We shared yesterday that the US White House will have a blockchain adviser role.

As we come to the end of the month, important dates for BTC, but first results for Previous dates :
19th July: After 35 days for the first time BTC passed $23,300.
23th July: Mixed Day fake, price action and price went down by -8% after that!
27th July: Big green candle +8% for BTC, to date price is +15%!

Incoming Dates :
30th July Today!
4th, 15th and 21th August.

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

29/07/2022

Thoughts on the Crypto Market on 29.07. 2022

Bitcoin was in the range of 24200-22580 during the day, and at the time of this writing, it’s worth $24,100.

Market capitalization $1.1 Trillion,
BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.5% and 19.0%,
Fear index 39.

Stock markets were up yesterday. The Dow Jones rose 1.03%, the S&P 500 rose 1.21% to close at its highest in almost seven weeks, and the NASDAQ rose 1.08%. Gold, silver and oil also showed growth. The dollar index fell 0.25% to 106.06. US GDP for the second quarter decreased by 0.9%, although growth was expected, which means that the country has entered a recession. For some reason, market participants believed that such events could force the Fed to stop its aggressive rate hikes in the future.

The crypto market is also doing well, Bitcoin is growing for the third day in a row. Currently at a high of $24,199.72 (), the last time such a peak was registered was on July 20.

Altcoins are jumping following suit, Ethereum was approaching $1784 and Ethereum Classic was already $44, showing almost a 70% gain in a week. After switching ETH to POS, miners will switch to ETC and many will diversify their risks.

For today's expectations, it remains yesterday's. For further growth, Bitcoin needs to overcome the resistance area at $23,800- $24,200 and gain a foothold above. In this case, the most likely aggressive option is an increase to $27,000- $28,000.

If we do not take these resistances, we remain in the range with the upper limit at $24,000- $24,200 and the lower limit at $20,800- $21,000, with spikes to $19K.

Nirvana, an algorithm stablecoin protocol based on Solana, is suspected to have suffered a flash loan, with a funding gap of $12 million. The price of its stablecoin NIRV once fell from $1 to $0.09; ANA token price once fell from $8.9 to $1.5, a drop of as much as 85%.

Lastly, a U.S. bill to boost computer chip manufacturing that’s heading to Joe Biden’s desk will also establish a crypto advisory role inside his administration. https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2022/07/28/us-tech-bill-creates-white-house-blockchain-adviser-role/

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

Bipartisan legislation approved by Congress to help out computer-chip manufacturing will also establish a new digital assets expert to advise the president.

28/07/2022

Thoughts on the market on 28.07.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $23,460- $21,040 during the day and at the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is worth $22,966.

Market capitalization $1.052 Trillion,
BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.8% and 18.8%.
Fear index 32.

Stock markets were up yesterday. The Dow Jones rose 1.37% to hit a monthly high, the S&P 500 gained 2.62% and the NASDAQ gained 4.06%. Gold, silver, oil and gas are also showing growth. The dollar index fell 0.68% to 106.31. The markets are positive and I must say thanks to the US Federal Reserve for raising the rate by only 0.75%, now its range is 2.25-2.5% per annum. Jerome Powell did not frighten anyone with his speech and did not say anything new.

The key points Powell said at the press conference: inflation is too high, the Fed will continue to reduce the balance sheet, another serious (big) rate hike is possible at the next meeting, if inflation continues to rise, they can raise the rate by 100 bp. In 2023, they may also continue to raise the rate.

We are waiting for more reports on US GDP today, which will show a recession in the US or not, although Powell assured in his speech that there is no recession in the country and he does not believe in its onset.

The crypto market is growing after the stock market, Bitcoin at the moment rose to $23,460 and is now trying to gain a foothold at 23K. Complete read: https://t.me/decryptedge/1169. If price does not take out the resistances, it's likely to remain in the range with the upper limit at $24,000-$24,200 and if rejected the lower limit at $20,800-$21,000 all the way to $20/19K.

Interestingly Cathy Wood Ark Invest Fund sold (https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2022/07/27/cathie-woods-ark-invest-offloads-over-14m-coinbase-shares-as-coin-price-falls /) Cathy knows something and she is out of the woods, even so happy with Bitcoin.

WHO is thinking about how to rename . Complete read: https://t.me/decryptedge/1169. That's all you need to know about where the world is heading.

Lastly, the IMF is intimidating the Crypto markets warning of a possible strong drop and problems. Sighting that crypto markets could see further selling pressure and more failures of coin offerings, including stablecoins. Complete read: https://t.me/decryptedge/1169

Still on IMF matters closer home(Kenya), the international body has recommended special safeguards for and from unfair competition by the planned digital shilling by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK). Complete read: https://t.me/decryptedge/1169

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

26/07/2022

Thoughts on the Crypto market on 26.07.2022

Bitcoin was in the range of $22,660- $20,850 during the day and at the time of this writing is trading for $21,096

Market capitalization $971 billion,
BTC, ETH Dominance index of 41.7% and 17.9%
Fear index 26.

The stock market ended trading in different directions. The Dow Jones rose 0.28%, the S&P 500 gained 0.13% and the NASDAQ lost 0.43%. Oil, gas, gold and silver showed growth. The USD index fell 0.29% to 106.31.

The market is waiting for the next meeting of the Fed and the publication of statements of the largest companies in the technology sector ( , , , , ). The Fed meeting will take place today and continue tomorrow, and market participants expect the Central Bank to raise the base interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25-2.5%, but the option of raising it immediately by 100 bp is not ruled out.

In a word, there will be many events, and they will set the direction of the market for the next couple of weeks. On the crypto market, everything is according to the plan outlined yesterday. Bitcoin fell below $21K to a low price of $20,856. The capitalization of the entire market again fell below a trillion, everyone is waiting for news from the Fed and data on the report, as mentioned above.

The situation with Coinbase could also have influenced, yesterday it was reported that the SEC launched an investigation into the exchange due to trading in unregistered securities. And the most interesting thing is that this FUD comes from Bloomberg, on which CZ (the owner of Binance) filed a libel suit and requires apologies, monetary compensation and the removal of fake articles about the exchange and BNB. The defamation lawsuit filed by CZ highlights Bloomberg Businessweek’s 250th issue about CZ. The cover of the issue was misleading and was titled “Changpeng Zhao’s Ponzi Scheme.” The lawsuit also cites the 250th issue along with social media posts on Facebook and Twitter.

For today. Bitcoin is in the range of $20,000 - $22,000. Our bias take is bearish to a $20,096 and $19,070 price tag for tomorrow.. Those ahead of the curve and wanted to sell before the news and meetings have already done so. With little trading volume present, price spikes will be erratic.
As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

25/07/2022

Thoughts on the market on 25.07.2022.

Bitcoin spent the weekend with the $21,900-$23,000 range and at the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is worth $21,900.

Market capitalization $1.009 Trillion,
BTC, ETH dominance index of 41.5% and 18.4%
Fear index 30.

Stock markets opened lower. Asian indices are trading in different directions, the dollar index is at 106.6, the S&P 500 futures are down 0.20%, gold, silver, and oil also showing a slight negative. The only commodity showing growth is natural gas.

Bitcoin is also falling, and pulling the rest of the market with it. After Bitcoin failed to gain a foothold at $23,000, a drain began, to a low of $21,737, its now trading around $21,900. Alts followed the main cryptocurrency, some lost up to 10%.

For today, expect Bitcoin with a lower border range at $20,000-$20,500 and an upper border at $22,000- $22,500.

Citigroup analysts report that the situation in the digital asset market has begun to stabilize. While Celsius Network filed for bankruptcy protection, the conversion of stablecoins to fiat and the outflow of funds from ETFs began, the use of leverage decreased, all these events indicate that the panic in the digital asset market is coming to an end. This is a consensus that's now getting empirical and bound to be abused, also known as manipulation. Need I remind you that, as we mentioned last week here: https://t.me/decryptedge/1165 If price fails to reclaim $24k again before weekly end and bears make BTC close weekly below or near $21k this will be a sign for another sell-off wave next week. This will open up a high probability for BTC to go below $18,000 weekly, followed by $16K, next levels will be ($10,875 - $12,688 - $14,600)

As always, this is not investment advice, and ought not to be considered as a financial recommendation. Must always do your own research.

Thoughts on the Crypto market on 22.07. 2022 Bitcoin was in the range of $23,440- $22,340 during the day and at the time of writing the review, Bitcoin is worth 23,116. Market capitalization $1.052 Trillion, BTC, ETH Dominance index of 42.0% and 18.3%, Fear index 33. Stock markets were up yesterday....