18/08/2026
TUNU CAPITAL TRADERS — NSE MIDDAY MARKET BRIEF
Tuesday, 18 August 2026 | 11:09 AM EAT
MARKET AT A GLANCE
The Nairobi Securities Exchange is showing a strong bullish tone at midday, with the major indices firmly positive and market breadth favouring advancing counters.
At approximately 11:09 AM, the market recorded:
Indicator| Midday Reading| TUNU Interpretation
Turnover| KSh 113.5M| Moderate liquidity
Volume| 3.9M shares| Healthy activity
Deals| 5,125| Broad participation
Gainers| 35| Strong
Decliners| 19| Controlled selling
Market Breadth| 65% — Strong| Bullish
Foreign Activity| Net sell KSh 5M| Caution
NSE 10-Share Index| 2,619.83 (+1.24%)| Strong momentum
NSE 20-Share Index| 4,178.50 (+1.02%)| Strong
NSE 25-Share Index| 6,717.10 (+1.20%)| Strong
The NSE's published market statistics corroborate the index levels shown in the live screen: NSE-10 at 2,619.83, NSE-20 at 4,178.50 and NSE-25 at 6,717.10.
1. TUNU MARKET TREND — BULLISH
The first signal is price direction.
All three major NSE indices are above +1% at midday:
NSE 10: +1.24%
NSE 20: +1.02%
NSE 25: +1.20%
This is important because the advance is not confined to one narrow index. The broader NSE 25 is also participating.
TUNU reading: POSITIVE TREND
The market is currently rewarding risk-taking rather than displaying broad-based defensive behaviour.
2. MARKET BREADTH — A MAJOR POSITIVE
There are 35 gainers against 19 decliners.
That gives the market a roughly 1.84:1 advancing-to-declining ratio.
The displayed breadth of 65% therefore confirms that the rally has reasonable participation.
This is healthier than a situation where the index rises only because one or two heavyweight counters are moving.
TUNU reading: STRONG
However, breadth should be monitored into the afternoon. A strong morning breadth that deteriorates sharply later would suggest profit-taking.
3. WHERE THE MONEY IS MOVING
The active-turnover screen gives a particularly interesting picture:
1. KCB — KSh 90.00 | KSh 21.82M turnover
2. ABSA — KSh 34.30 | KSh 11.48M
3. Family Bank — KSh 33.90 | KSh 11.29M
4. NCBA — KSh 91.75 | KSh 9.18M
5. KPLC — KSh 21.15 | KSh 7.92M
These five counters alone account for approximately KSh 61.7M, or about 54% of the displayed KSh 113.5M market turnover.
That tells us something important:
The market is bullish, but liquidity is still concentrated in a relatively small group of counters.
KCB is particularly dominant, contributing almost 19% of total midday turnover by itself.
4. BANKING LEADERSHIP
The banking complex is clearly central to today's activity.
KCB at KSh 90.00, NCBA at KSh 91.75 and ABSA at KSh 34.30 are among the most actively traded counters.
KCB is especially noteworthy because the screen marks it "cum dividend", meaning the stock is trading with the relevant dividend entitlement attached. KCB's shareholder-return profile remains significant: the bank approved a total FY2025 dividend of KSh 7.00 per share, while its 2025 net profit reached KSh 68.4 billion.
The bigger TUNU point is not simply that KCB is rising.
It is that capital is concentrating around liquid, established businesses with earnings and dividend narratives.
5. ACTIVE VOLUME — SPECULATION VS PARTICIPATION
The active-volume screen shows:
KEGN — 411,855
KPLC — 376,992
FMLY — 337,037
ABSA — 334,374
KNRE — 316,601
This is useful because turnover and volume tell different stories.
KCB dominates value traded, while KEGN and KPLC dominate share volume.
That suggests two different layers of market participation:
Large-cap/value participation: KCB, ABSA, NCBA.
Higher-volume/price-accessible participation: KEGN, KPLC, Family Bank, Kenya Re.
TUNU therefore sees broad participation, but not uniform capital intensity.
6. TOP GAINERS — MOMENTUM IS MOVING BEYOND THE BLUE CHIPS
The strongest gainers at the time of the screenshots were:
Car & General — KSh 316.75 | +9.98%
NSE PLC — KSh 26.70 | +7.44%
Olympia Capital — KSh 8.60 | +7.23%
East African Portland Cement — KSh 122.75 | +4.69%
BOC Kenya — KSh 190.00 | +4.68%
Car & General is effectively at the displayed +10% intraday threshold.
This is a sign of strong speculative/momentum activity in selected smaller counters.
But the TUNU principle here is:
A strong price move is not automatically a strong investment thesis.
Momentum should be separated from business quality, earnings growth and valuation.
7. DECLINERS — SELLING REMAINS SELECTIVE
The leading decliners were:
Africa Mega Agricorp — KSh 122.50 | -5.22%
Limuru Tea — KSh 501.00 | -4.57%
Crown Paints — KSh 60.00 | -3.61%
Liberty Kenya Holdings — KSh 9.12 | -2.15%
Umeme — KSh 6.50 | -2.11%
Notably, two of the leading decliners are marked ex-dividend.
Therefore, their price weakness should not automatically be interpreted as deteriorating investor sentiment. Dividend adjustments can mechanically affect share prices.
TUNU reading: DECLINER DATA NEEDS CONTEXT.
8. FOREIGN FLOW — THE BIGGEST WARNING SIGNAL
The strongest cautionary indicator on the screen is:
FOREIGN ACTIVITY: NET SELL KSh 5M
This is relatively small compared with total turnover, but it matters because it contrasts with the bullish domestic price action.
We therefore have an interesting market structure:
«Prices are rising while foreign investors remain net sellers.»
This suggests that today's strength is being absorbed by other market participants, particularly local investors and institutions.
Recent market developments also show that the NSE rally has increasingly broadened beyond the traditional largest counters, with smaller and mid-cap stocks gaining market share.
TUNU reading: CAUTION, NOT PANIC.
A persistent foreign net-selling trend combined with weakening breadth would be much more concerning.
9. MACRO BACKDROP
The monetary environment remains relatively supportive for equities.
The Central Bank of Kenya's latest published rates show:
CBR: 8.75%
KESONIA: 8.7526%
91-day T-bill: 8.773%
July inflation: 6.49%
CBK has maintained the Central Bank Rate at 8.75%, while KESONIA has converged around the same level.
This creates a mixed but constructive environment for equities:
Positive: lower and stable monetary rates can support credit growth and equity valuations.
Risk: inflation at 6.49% remains sufficiently elevated to limit the room for aggressive further monetary easing.
The upcoming Treasury-bill auction on 20 August 2026 is also worth watching because money-market yields remain an important alternative to equities.
10. TUNU RESEARCH SYSTEM — MIDDAY SCORECARD
TUNU Factor| Assessment| Signal
Market Trend| Major indices +1%| Strong
Market Breadth| 35 gainers vs 19 decliners| Strong
Liquidity| KSh 113.5M turnover| Moderate/Positive
Volume| 3.9M shares| Positive
Leadership| Banks + utilities prominent| Positive
Momentum| Several counters +4% to +10%| Strong but selective
Foreign Flow| Net selling KSh 5M| Caution
Macro| CBR 8.75%, inflation 6.49%| Neutral/Positive
Concentration| Top 5 ≈54% of turnover| Watch
Long-term Quality| Requires company-level analysis| Selective
TUNU MARKET VERDICT: BULLISH — BUT SELECTIVE
The evidence at midday supports a bullish market regime, not a blind "buy everything" environment.
The strongest combination is:
Positive indices + strong breadth + healthy volume + banking leadership.
The main counter-signals are:
Foreign net selling + turnover concentration + sharp speculative moves in smaller counters.
WHAT TUNU INVESTORS SHOULD WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
1. Does breadth remain above 60%?
If gainers continue to dominate, the bullish signal strengthens.
2. Does turnover accelerate beyond the KSh 113.5M midday level?
Increasing turnover alongside rising prices would provide stronger confirmation.
3. Does KCB maintain the KSh 90 area?
Given its unusually high turnover and dividend-related trading, KCB is an important market sentiment gauge today.
4. Does foreign selling intensify?
A move materially beyond the current KSh 5M net sell would introduce greater caution.
5. Do the NSE 10, 20 and 25 remain above +1%?
Holding these gains into the close would provide stronger evidence of broad market strength.
6. Do today's high-flying small caps retain their gains?
TUNU would distinguish between genuine accumulation and short-term momentum.
THE TUNU TAKEAWAY
Today's market is telling us something quite clear:
The NSE is strong, participation is broad, and buyers currently have control.
But the quality of the rally matters more than the colour of the screen.
The TUNU Research System therefore favours selective accumulation of quality businesses supported by earnings growth, sustainable dividends, reinvestment and long-term compounding, rather than chasing whatever counter is up the most at midday.
Market direction: BULLISH
Breadth: STRONG
Liquidity: HEALTHY
Foreign flow: CAUTIOUS
Risk level: MODERATE
TUNU stance: STAY INVESTED, BUT BE SELECTIVE