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The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday and set out scenarios for the economic impact of th...
01/05/2026

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday and set out scenarios for the economic impact of the Iran war, one of which could require a "forceful" increase in borrowing costs.
Below are key comments made by Governor Andrew Bailey at the press conference on Thursday.

ON DIRECTION OF BANK RATE IN FUTURE

"I would very much give the message: no, it is not the case that we’re sort of giving some sort of slightly clandestine message, that interest rates are going to go up notwithstanding what we’ve decided today, ... today is an active hold."

"Given the sheer unpredictability and drawing on the evidence from Scenario B, there’s a good case for holding rates now, but we must recognise that a prolonged spike in energy prices, as in Scenario C, could lead to a higher bank rate."

"I can’t give you a cast iron assurance that therefore there will be no increase (in bank rate) in any scenario or any of those scenarios ... What I can say to you is that there is a good, good deal of space available to accommodate that (inflation pressures)."

"The right decision today is to hold, but it’s an active hold ...it’s not a passive, ’wait and see’ hold...It’s to deliberately, actively hold."

"Do I think therefore that the interest rate curve is in the wrong place? No, I don’t, because there are risks around this."

The Iran war could drag euro zone growth lower and push inflation above already increased projections, requiring the Eur...
17/04/2026

The Iran war could drag euro zone growth lower and push inflation above already increased projections, requiring the European Central Bank to remain vigilant, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday.

ECB policymakers have been debating whether to raise interest rates to prevent the energy-driven inflation shock from setting off an inflation spiral, but signals suggest action is not seen as urgent for now.

"The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth," Lagarde told the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee.

"It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices," Lagarde said in comments that largely mirror her statement after the central bank’s policy meeting last month.

Markets have mostly priced out an interest rate hike in April but still see a move around mid-year, while a second hike at the end of the year is almost fully priced in.

Lagarde added that growth is also facing a drag from tighter global financial conditions, trade frictions and other geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s war in Ukraine.

However, she sent no fresh signals about policy, repeating her mantra that decisions are taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis and are based on incoming data, and the ECB was not pre-committing to any particular policy path.

"We are closely monitoring the situation, and the incoming information in the period ahead will help us assess the impact of the war on the inflation outlook," Lagarde said.

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the U.S. economy is fundamentally solid, the labor market has ste...
10/04/2026

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the U.S. economy is fundamentally solid, the labor market has steadied, and monetary policy is in a "good place" -- restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation without undercutting the labor market.

But the oil shock from the Iran war, she told Reuters in an interview late Thursday, extends the timeline on getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% goal, and may leave the Fed in a holding pattern on interest rates.

"We had work to do before we had the oil price shock; with the oil price shock, the work just takes longer," Daly said, noting that though the drop in oil prices after the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire deal earlier this week brings some relief, "no one’s really sure how long that will last."

The Fed has held its short-term interest-rate target in the 3.50%-3.75% range at each of its two meetings so far this year. Many Fed policymakers, Daly included, had felt that tariff-related inflation would probably ease later this year, allowing the central bank to resume cutting rates. She had thought one cut might be needed, maybe two.

Then came the Iran war, driving oil prices up sharply and lifting gasoline prices above $4 a gallon.

Oil shocks "push up inflation if they persist, and they will tug at growth, and what we would have to do as policymakers is balance those risks and make the best decision to get to both of our goals as quickly and easily as we can."

Iran is stepping up military preparations as the risk of a ground operation on its territory rises, reinforcing defenses...
03/04/2026

Iran is stepping up military preparations as the risk of a ground operation on its territory rises, reinforcing defenses around key energy infrastructure while signaling a broader escalation across the Gulf, according to Wall Street Journal.
The moves follow orders from U.S. President Donald Trump to deploy thousands of Marines and Airborne troops to the region. While Trump has not confirmed plans for a ground assault, the buildup is expanding Washington’s options and prompting a more aggressive response from Tehran.

In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump said on Friday that the U.S. could reopen the Strait of Hormuz with more time, as pressure grows on his administration to bring a swift end to the war with Iran.

“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Nearly five weeks after the conflict began with a joint U.S.-Israeli aerial assault, the war continues to destabilize the region and rattle financial markets, intensifying calls for a resolution.

Iran preparing for U.S. ground invasion
According to WSJ, Iran is fortifying Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, widely seen as a potential focal point in any ground conflict. The country is boosting missile defenses, the report added, laying coastal mines and preparing facilities for possible attacks.



Hakan demir , 27 Mar 2026 Cum, 18:10 tarihinde şunu yazdı:

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The European Central Bank should not rush to raise rates in response to surging energy costs, as its "baseline" outlook ...
27/03/2026

The European Central Bank should not rush to raise rates in response to surging energy costs, as its "baseline" outlook remains intact and there is no sign yet that inflation is becoming entrenched, Cypriot central bank chief Christodoulos Patsalides said.

With energy prices surging on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, euro zone inflation is set to breach the ECB’s 2% target as early as this month, prompting policymakers to debate whether to raise interest rates to head off second-round effects.

Patsalides, who sits on the ECB’s rate-setting Governing Council, said he would not hesitate to raise rates if he saw evidence that inflation was getting entrenched in the 21-nation bloc, but added there was no such evidence yet.

"We don’t have sufficient information to make a decision as to whether this should be looked through or whether we should be making a decision on interest rates," Patsalides said in an interview. "I would not rush into any decision."

Under the ECB’s baseline view, inflation tops 3% in the second quarter before returning to target a year later, but adverse scenarios show deeper and longer-lasting overshoots.

"I think we are still along the baseline," Patsalides argued. "Only two weeks have passed since the cutoff date of the projections, and we haven’t seen anything that points to a change in either the duration or the intensity of the war."

RATE HIKE NEEDS MORE EVIDENCE

Markets now price in three ECB rate hikes this year, starting as early as April or June, but expectations are volatile and prone to sharp shifts as the war evolves.

Oil prices float near $100 a barrel amid ongoing Iran war - what’s moving markets?
13/03/2026

Oil prices float near $100 a barrel amid ongoing Iran war - what’s moving markets?

A long war in Iran would push up inflation in the euro zone and hurt growth but it is still too early to draw any conclu...
06/03/2026

A long war in Iran would push up inflation in the euro zone and hurt growth but it is still too early to draw any conclusion about the conflict, European Central Bank policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Thursday.

"If the conflict comes to a swift end...the consequences for inflation would be short-term and limited overall," he said in a speech.

"By contrast, if energy prices were to remain elevated for an extended period of time, this would tend to lead to higher inflation and weaker economic activity in the euro area."

He added it was still too early to draw conclusions for the setting of interesting rates.

Nagel, the Bundesbank’s president, was presenting the German central bank’s annual report for 2025, which showed an 8.6 billion loss as a result of bonds bought during the stimulus programmes of the last decade.

While the losses were becoming smaller, Nagel expected the Bundesbank to close 2026 still in the red.

The annual accounts also showed the Bundesbank had not moved its 3,350 tonnes of gold, which remain stored in Frankfurt, New York and London.

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said strong job growth in January was "a really good thing," but that the Fed sho...
27/02/2026

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said strong job growth in January was "a really good thing," but that the Fed should still cut a full percentage point from its policy rate this year because there were still risks to the labor market while inflation was no longer a problem.

"I think it’s way too early to sort of sound an all clear that the labor market doesn’t need more support from the Federal Reserve. I definitely think the labor market can be supported by the Federal Reserve further," with four cuts this year, Miran said on Fox Business’s "Mornings with Maria".

"I really do not think that we have an inflation problem," with recent inflation readings a percentage point above the Fed’s target likely to slow.

Private credit jitters; U.S. PCE, GDP data ahead - what’s moving markets?
20/02/2026

Private credit jitters; U.S. PCE, GDP data ahead - what’s moving markets?

The head of the World Trade Organization said that she agreed with U.S. calls for reform of the global trading system ah...
13/02/2026

The head of the World Trade Organization said that she agreed with U.S. calls for reform of the global trading system ahead of a major meeting of the trade watchdog in Cameroon next month.

Last year, President Donald Trump signed an executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on U.S. imports from dozens of countries and foreign locations. The U.S. Supreme Court is due to rule on their legality.

"We may not like the action (U.S. tariffs), but we must take the signal that we need to reform many of the things with the world trading system," Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told the Munich Security Conference on Friday.

"The system is resilient, but it’s not robust, so we need to make it robust by doing the necessary reforms, and that is what we’re working on at the WTO," she said, without giving specifics on what needed to change.

She called for an end to "lamentations" about U.S. trade policy and urged Europe and middle powers to show leadership.

European Central Bank policy is right for the current inflation outlook but risks remain that price growth might weaken ...
06/02/2026

European Central Bank policy is right for the current inflation outlook but risks remain that price growth might weaken excessively and the ECB must be ready to act if these materialise, ECB policymakers said on Friday.

The euro zone’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, saying the outlook remained broadly unchanged and that policymakers still saw inflation returning to its 2% target in the medium term after a well-telegraphed dip this year.

"We are on target," Spanish central bank chief Jose Luis Escriva told Cadena Ser radio station.

STEADY POLICY BEST COURSE

"We see that inflation expectations are anchored ... (and) everything points to the best course of action at this time being to maintain stable interest rates," Escriva said.

A fresh ECB survey published on Friday saw inflation rising back to 2.0% next year after edging under the target in 2026, partly because economic growth will accelerate to remain broadly around the bloc’s potential.

That is also why financial markets see just a one-in-five chance that the ECB will cut interest rates again, with most betting that the benchmark deposit rate will stay at its current 2% all year.

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