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02/07/2026

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz presented a 34-point economic reform package on Thursday that includes changes to pensions, taxes and labor laws designed to increase growth and competitiveness.

The government plans to pass the main parts of the package through parliament by the end of the year.

The pension reforms will follow recommendations from the pension commission to add a capital markets-based component to the state pension system. The retirement age will gradually increase over the coming decades.

Households will receive income tax relief of more than €600 ($685) for a working family with two children through higher allowances and reduced progression for middle incomes. The measures will provide an estimated €10 billion in annual relief.

The tax cuts will be partially funded by raising the top tax rate to 47% from 45% for high earners with annual taxable income of €280,000 or more.

Labor market changes will require workers to obtain medical certificates from the first day of sick leave instead of calling in sick by telephone. Companies will be able to offer fixed-term contracts for up to 48 months for new hires through 2030. Employers will also have more flexibility for dismissal-with-compensation arrangements for very high earners.

The package includes support measures for key sectors including automotive, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, clean technology, machinery, batteries, semiconductors and artificial intelligence. The Deutschlandfonds investment funding framework will be expanded into a strategic investment vehicle focused on resilience, energy and raw materials.

Welfare fraud enforcement will be strengthened through increased data sharing among authorities. The electricity distribution grid expansion will be accelerated with a goal to cut network project implementation times by half.

19/06/2026

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh put his stamp on the job fast this week at a debut policy meeting that produced a return to stripped-down, 1990s-style central banking, before this century’s crises put the Fed center-stage in economic management and turned its leader into a consoler-in-chief for Wall Street and Main Street alike.

The question now is whether the reduced role he seeks for the Fed and in effect for himself is compatible with a world grown more complex, a more-intense and polarized information environment, and markets now accustomed to a steady diet of top policymaker commentary.

Whether he intended it, Warsh’s emphasis on inflation in Wednesday’s press conference, without any more-nuanced commentary about what might clear the bar for a rate hike, led investors to conclude an increase was coming soon and begin bidding up bond yields.

The market reaction "was massively amplified by the Warsh press conference that combined a hawkish near single-mandate emphasis on the need to deliver price stability with a total absence of any modulating discussion of the Fed’s strategy or reaction function," wrote Krishna Guha, a former top communications official at the New York Fed and now vice-chairman and head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. "Discussion of the reaction function and strategy...supports more effective central banking," a main tenet of current central bank practice.

The Fed at Warsh’s first meeting held rates steady in the 3.50%-to-3.75% range where they’ve been since December, announcing it in a spare policy statement reminiscent of those penned in the 1990s by then-Chair Alan Greenspan, famously reluctant to let the public into his thinking. The arc of communications since then has been for the Fed chief to spend less time behind the curtain, and one current communication tool, the "dot plot" of rate projections, on Wednesday showed what Warsh did not want to discuss - policymakers flocking to the likely need for rate hikes this year.

04/06/2026

Both the European Union and the United States are committed to complying with their trade agreement, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday after broad new tariff threats over forced labour rankled Washington’s trade partners.

After the two sides struck a framework agreement at U.S. ⁠President Donald Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland last July, the EU is still in the process of ratifying the deal, prompting Trump to say he would impose "much higher" tariffs if the bloc does not implement its commitments by July 4.

"Both sides are committed to compliance with the trade agreement," Greer told France 24 in an interview. "We think there is a lot of room for compliance on both sides," he added.

Greer’s comments came after the Trump administration proposed new tariffs of up to 12.5% on imports from 60 economies, saying they had failed to curb trade in goods made with forced labor, an assertion rejected by its trading partners. The EU was hit with 10% tariffs over the issue.

Greer said the announcement should not have come as a surprise as the investigation had been underway for months, but did not see it holding up the U.S.-EU deal in the European Parliament.

In reaction to the latest tariff announcement, the head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, Bernd Lange, said any new U.S. tariffs on EU goods would be unacceptable, dismissing Washington’s claims the bloc was failing to curb trade in forced labour ‌goods as "utterly absurd".

14/05/2026

The United States and China unveiled a protocol on best practices for artificial intelligence on Thursday, as President Donald Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing for a two-day summit.

"The two AI superpowers are gonna start talking. We're gonna set up a protocol in terms of how do we go forward with best practices for AI to make sure non-state actors don't get a hold of these models," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Thursday.

"The reason we are able to have wholesome discussions with the Chinese on AI is because we are in the lead," Bessent said. "I do not think we would be having the same discussions if they were this far ahead of us."

Bessent said Trump would say more on Taiwan in the coming days. Trump's trip marks the first time a sitting U.S. president has visited China since 2017. The summit is due to wrap up Friday.

Bessent met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in South Korea on Wednesday ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting.

01/05/2026

The Bank of England kept interest rates on hold at 3.75% on Thursday and set out scenarios for the economic impact of the Iran war, one of which could require a "forceful" increase in borrowing costs.
Below are key comments made by Governor Andrew Bailey at the press conference on Thursday.

ON DIRECTION OF BANK RATE IN FUTURE

"I would very much give the message: no, it is not the case that we’re sort of giving some sort of slightly clandestine message, that interest rates are going to go up notwithstanding what we’ve decided today, ... today is an active hold."

"Given the sheer unpredictability and drawing on the evidence from Scenario B, there’s a good case for holding rates now, but we must recognise that a prolonged spike in energy prices, as in Scenario C, could lead to a higher bank rate."

"I can’t give you a cast iron assurance that therefore there will be no increase (in bank rate) in any scenario or any of those scenarios ... What I can say to you is that there is a good, good deal of space available to accommodate that (inflation pressures)."

"The right decision today is to hold, but it’s an active hold ...it’s not a passive, ’wait and see’ hold...It’s to deliberately, actively hold."

"Do I think therefore that the interest rate curve is in the wrong place? No, I don’t, because there are risks around this."

17/04/2026

The Iran war could drag euro zone growth lower and push inflation above already increased projections, requiring the European Central Bank to remain vigilant, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday.

ECB policymakers have been debating whether to raise interest rates to prevent the energy-driven inflation shock from setting off an inflation spiral, but signals suggest action is not seen as urgent for now.

"The war in the Middle East has made the outlook significantly more uncertain, creating upside risks for inflation and downside risks for economic growth," Lagarde told the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee.

"It will have a material impact on near-term inflation through higher energy prices," Lagarde said in comments that largely mirror her statement after the central bank’s policy meeting last month.

Markets have mostly priced out an interest rate hike in April but still see a move around mid-year, while a second hike at the end of the year is almost fully priced in.

Lagarde added that growth is also facing a drag from tighter global financial conditions, trade frictions and other geopolitical tensions, including Russia’s war in Ukraine.

However, she sent no fresh signals about policy, repeating her mantra that decisions are taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis and are based on incoming data, and the ECB was not pre-committing to any particular policy path.

"We are closely monitoring the situation, and the incoming information in the period ahead will help us assess the impact of the war on the inflation outlook," Lagarde said.

10/04/2026

San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the U.S. economy is fundamentally solid, the labor market has steadied, and monetary policy is in a "good place" -- restrictive enough to put downward pressure on inflation without undercutting the labor market.

But the oil shock from the Iran war, she told Reuters in an interview late Thursday, extends the timeline on getting inflation back to the Fed’s 2% goal, and may leave the Fed in a holding pattern on interest rates.

"We had work to do before we had the oil price shock; with the oil price shock, the work just takes longer," Daly said, noting that though the drop in oil prices after the U.S. and Iran announced a ceasefire deal earlier this week brings some relief, "no one’s really sure how long that will last."

The Fed has held its short-term interest-rate target in the 3.50%-3.75% range at each of its two meetings so far this year. Many Fed policymakers, Daly included, had felt that tariff-related inflation would probably ease later this year, allowing the central bank to resume cutting rates. She had thought one cut might be needed, maybe two.

Then came the Iran war, driving oil prices up sharply and lifting gasoline prices above $4 a gallon.

Oil shocks "push up inflation if they persist, and they will tug at growth, and what we would have to do as policymakers is balance those risks and make the best decision to get to both of our goals as quickly and easily as we can."

03/04/2026

Iran is stepping up military preparations as the risk of a ground operation on its territory rises, reinforcing defenses around key energy infrastructure while signaling a broader escalation across the Gulf, according to Wall Street Journal.
The moves follow orders from U.S. President Donald Trump to deploy thousands of Marines and Airborne troops to the region. While Trump has not confirmed plans for a ground assault, the buildup is expanding Washington’s options and prompting a more aggressive response from Tehran.

In a post on Truth Social on Friday, Trump said on Friday that the U.S. could reopen the Strait of Hormuz with more time, as pressure grows on his administration to bring a swift end to the war with Iran.

“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social.

Nearly five weeks after the conflict began with a joint U.S.-Israeli aerial assault, the war continues to destabilize the region and rattle financial markets, intensifying calls for a resolution.

Iran preparing for U.S. ground invasion
According to WSJ, Iran is fortifying Kharg Island, its main oil export hub, widely seen as a potential focal point in any ground conflict. The country is boosting missile defenses, the report added, laying coastal mines and preparing facilities for possible attacks.

Hakan demir , 27 Mar 2026 Cum, 18:10 tarihinde şunu yazdı:

Alıntılanan metni göster

27/03/2026

The European Central Bank should not rush to raise rates in response to surging energy costs, as its "baseline" outlook remains intact and there is no sign yet that inflation is becoming entrenched, Cypriot central bank chief Christodoulos Patsalides said.

With energy prices surging on the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, euro zone inflation is set to breach the ECB’s 2% target as early as this month, prompting policymakers to debate whether to raise interest rates to head off second-round effects.

Patsalides, who sits on the ECB’s rate-setting Governing Council, said he would not hesitate to raise rates if he saw evidence that inflation was getting entrenched in the 21-nation bloc, but added there was no such evidence yet.

"We don’t have sufficient information to make a decision as to whether this should be looked through or whether we should be making a decision on interest rates," Patsalides said in an interview. "I would not rush into any decision."

Under the ECB’s baseline view, inflation tops 3% in the second quarter before returning to target a year later, but adverse scenarios show deeper and longer-lasting overshoots.

"I think we are still along the baseline," Patsalides argued. "Only two weeks have passed since the cutoff date of the projections, and we haven’t seen anything that points to a change in either the duration or the intensity of the war."

RATE HIKE NEEDS MORE EVIDENCE

Markets now price in three ECB rate hikes this year, starting as early as April or June, but expectations are volatile and prone to sharp shifts as the war evolves.

13/03/2026

Oil prices float near $100 a barrel amid ongoing Iran war - what’s moving markets?

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