Investment

06/09/2026

Praėjusi savaitė finansų rinkose buvo kupina kontrastų: JAV darbo rinka išliko stebėtinai stipri, Europa susiduria su silpstančiu vartojimu, o obligacijų pajamingumai šokinėja dėl energetikos rizikų ir geopolitinės įtampos Persijos įlankoje.

Kitą savaitę toną nustatys JAV CPI/PPI, ECB sprendimas ir Kinijos prekybos duomenys – tai gali tapti vienu svarbiausių makro momentų rugsėjį.

Dalinamės pilna savaitine apžvalga ir prognozėmis 👇

Savaitinė kapitalo rinkų apžvalga: JAV darbo rinkos stiprybė, silpstantis Europos vartojimas, ECB sprendimo rizika, Bitcoin techninė kryptis.

04/09/2026

The US labor market surprised to the upside on Friday, shifting market sentiment in a matter of minutes.
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far above expectations for a 56,000 increase and following an upward revision to July’s figure. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, while annual wage growth eased to 3.1%—a smaller slowdown than markets anticipated.

The stronger data pushed the US dollar index up to 99.3, reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now price in nearly a 58% probability of a rate hike in September.

Crypto markets reacted instantly: BTC dropped more than 2%, as traders recalibrated risk sentiment and short‑term liquidity expectations.

04/09/2026

A fresh 1‑Page investment snapshot revealing TDY’s true value, risk profile, and long‑term price trajectory. Strong fundamentals, attractive intrinsic value, and a clear upward bias - but timing matters.
Dive into the full breakdown and see whether TDY deserves a place in your portfolio.

See the link below.

04/09/2026

Šiandien investuotojai stebės kelis svarbius makro rodiklius iš Japonijos, Europos ir Šiaurės Amerikos. Jie gali sukelti trumpalaikius judėjimus Forex, obligacijų ir indeksų rinkose, ypač jei reikšmės nukryps nuo konsensuso.

Japonijos vartojimas testuos atsigavimą, Vokietijos gamyba balansuos tarp korekcijos ir stabilizacijos, o JAV NFP formuos dienos toną. Kanada išliks neutrali, bet Ivey PMI gali duoti netikėtą signalą.

Trumpai: šiandien rinka gali suvaidinti mini dramą - svarbiausia nepasimesti tarp siurprizų ir išlikti disciplinuotam. Nuoroda į straipsnį komentaruose.

03/09/2026

Behemoth - kai lustas gimsta ne iš silicio, o iš kodu sujungtų blokų.
16‑metis kūrėjas Blonskr sukūrė 4 bitų procesorių, veikiantį BNB Chain grandinėje. Tai ne eksperimentas, o naujas požiūris į kompiuteriją: decentralizuotą, verifikuojamą ir amžiną.
Ar blockchain taps nauju siliciu? Nuoroda į straipsnį komentaruose

01/09/2026

„Nustatančiųjų taisykles“ strategija siūlo paprastą, bet galingą principą: rinktis pasaulinius prekės ženklus, kurie diktuoja ekonomikos kryptį. Tai metodas, paremtas logika, skaičiais ir kantrybe - be emocijų ir be nuolatinio triukšmo.

Jei ieškai ilgalaikio, stabilaus ir aiškaus investavimo kelio, ši strategija gali tapti tavo pagrindu. Nuoroda komentaruose.

31/08/2026

Warsh Makes The 2 Percent Target a Hard Target
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh used his first Jackson Hole address to make clear that the fight against inflation is not over. The Fed now treats the 2% inflation goal as a firm, fixed target, not a flexible one — and markets responded immediately.

🔹 Key Takeaways
Rate expectations repriced: September rate cut odds dropped to 0%, while the chance of a quarter‑point hike jumped to 57%.

Yields reacted: 2‑year Treasury rose 14 bps to 4.34%, 5‑year to 4.48%, and 30‑year to 5.22%.

Warsh’s message: Inflation progress must be broad — across many indicators, not just headline prints.

Policy stance: The Fed may not be restrictive enough; cuts are further away, hikes closer.

🔹 Economic Context
Private domestic demand running at 4.2%, inflation at 3.7%.

Three FOMC members already favored a hike in July.

Warsh rejected forward guidance, preferring flexibility over pre‑commitment.

🔹 Market & Crypto Impact
Front end repriced: Futures now fully price out easing.

Bitcoin fell ~4% to $76,857 after failing to hold above $81K.

ETF inflows remained strong — $924.5M over five sessions — but the streak broke the day Warsh spoke.

Liquidity still supports crypto, but higher rate expectations cap upside.

🔹 What’s Next
All eyes on:

Sept 4 jobs report

Sept 11 CPI release

Sept 9 Treasury buyback operation

Until inflation breadth narrows and fiscal credibility improves, higher yields and tighter liquidity remain the dominant macro theme.

31/08/2026

Persistent inflation and a widening fiscal deficit are keeping US bond yields elevated — and limiting the case for easier monetary policy.
Despite headline GDP growth of 1.5%, underlying private‑sector momentum remains strong: households and business investment grew 4.2%, and corporate profits surged $400.9B in Q2.

🔹 Inflation & Fiscal Pressure
PCE inflation: up 3.7% YoY, core 3.3% — still far above the Fed’s 2% target

Federal deficit: $1.8T with two months left in FY2026; projected $2.1T (6.4% of GDP)

Treasury’s verbal interventions and buyback plans have had limited impact — yields remain near multi‑year highs

🔹 Economic Resilience
Household income: +0.4% in July

Real disposable income: +0.4%

Durable goods orders: +1.1%

Non‑defense capital goods shipments: +1.4%
→ AI‑linked investment continues to support demand and output.

🔹 Policy Outlook
The Fed’s current rate range (3.5–3.75%) is likely to hold, but inflation persistence and fiscal imbalance reduce the case for near‑term cuts.
Without credible fiscal consolidation, Treasury efforts to lower yields will remain symbolic — investors need proof of both disinflation and deficit discipline before long‑term rates can sustainably fall.

Bottom line: Strong domestic demand meets stubborn inflation and heavy government borrowing — a mix that keeps upward pressure on US yields and challenges hopes for early monetary easing.

31/08/2026

Bitcoin held firm above $77,100 this weekend despite a sharp pullback triggered by hawkish Fed rhetoric. After briefly reclaiming $80,000 for the first time since May and touching $81,500, BTC retraced as markets priced in a higher probability of a September rate hike — implied odds jumped from 35% → 60% following Chairman Warsh’s comments.

Yet the broader structure remains constructive:
🔹 BTC is up 41% from bear‑market lows and 25.4% in August
🔹 The key $77,100 volume node — the most traded level since the summer breakout — held cleanly
🔹 Open interest sits at $55.6B, still elevated but rising gradually, with no signs of market overheating
🔹 Spot demand continues to dominate, not leverage

ETF flows reinforce this resilience.
Despite Friday’s volatility, US spot ETFs ended the week with $924.5M in net inflows and have absorbed $3.04B since 17 August. Outflows were modest ($201.9M), mostly from tactical vehicles (ARKB, BITB), while long‑term capital — notably BlackRock’s IBIT — barely moved.

ETH products showed even stronger momentum:
🔹 10‑day inflow streak
🔹 $815.7M weekly inflows
🔹 August accounts for 12.3% of all ETH ETF inflows since inception
Adjusted for scale, ETH demand was ~4× stronger than BTC last week — a potential proxy for rising risk appetite.

On‑chain flows highlight a structural shift:
🔹 Whales (1k–10k BTC) sold 50,500 BTC since June
🔹 Custodial/ETF platforms added 59,100 BTC
🔹 Institutional demand absorbed supply nearly 1:1 during the August rally

Overall, despite hawkish macro signals, the market structure remains healthy: spot‑led demand, stable open interest, strong ETF absorption, and a defended $77,100 support. Unless risk assets broadly roll over, BTC appears positioned for continued consolidation or further upside.

30/08/2026

Obligacijų pajamingumai šią savaitę diktavo visą rinkų toną - nuo JAV iki Europos ir Japonijos. Warsh kalba Jackson Hole buvo aiškiai „hawkish“, o geopolitika Hormūze ir toliau kelia energijos kainų riziką. Europa ruošiasi ECB kėlimui, Kinija – naujam stimuliacijos etapui, o JAV laukia svarbiausio darbo rinkos rodiklio. Dalinuosi savo savaitine apžvalga ir aiškiais scenarijais kitai savaitei.

Nuoroda į straipsnį komentaruose.