28/04/2026
𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐀𝐝𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐚 '𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐫 𝐍𝐨𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠' 𝐌𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐌𝐲 𝐂𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐀𝐏𝐂 𝐌𝐨𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐀𝐃𝐂 𝐂𝐨𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧.
Kwankwaso is smart! He has more experience in governance and politics than Obi; while he served eight years as governor just like Obi, he was also a senator and a minister - titles Obi never held. Unlike Obi, Kwankwaso commands his followers, he leads, and they follow.
But wait a minute: why did Kwankwaso accept to deputize Obi - an offer he outrightly refused in 2023? What has changed? Does it mean he no longer wants to be president? What really happened? The answer is simple. There is a well-known Hausa adage: "Idan kida ya chanza, rawa ma chanza wa yake" (If the drumbeat changes, the dance must change too). Kwankwaso has clearly analyzed his chances and realities on the ground, in fact, "Jagora" does not need a soothsayer to tell him, as far as 2027 is concerned, calming down is the wisest thing to do.
Becoming a VP is not a demotion for Kwankwanso. After all, he has never been a VP in his life - a position that, apart from Namadi Sambo, no one else in the entire North West has even sniffed. Besides, why would he even bother pushing for the presidency when the odds of becoming a VP are more favorable and clearer? Why take an unworthy risk when there is a more informed and calculated gamble to ride on? I give it to "Jagora" 🙌🏽.
In 2023, Obi trailed Atiku to finish third, garnering 6.1 million votes - roughly 25% of the total valid votes cast. Atiku, who placed second, secured 6.9 million votes (29%), while Kwankwaso finished a distant fourth with 1.4 million votes (6%).
Judging by the recent political outings of these three great men, Atiku remains more popular despite clear sabotage by Wike and his associates in 2023. Although Obi served as Atiku’s running mate in 2019 and was the Labour Party’s presidential candidate in 2023, he has never served as the Vice President of Nigeria. This raises the question: Why is Obi so openly desperate for the ADC presidential ticket when, like Kwankwaso, his chances of becoming Vice President are more viable?
The issue is not even his ambition to become Presidential candidate - there is nothing wrong with that - but rather the perception that, him and some of his supporters, view the position as a birthright. In response to arguments raised by the Obi camp, the Atiku camp has offered more intelligent counterpoints that any fair and sensible person would consider, that is why the ticket remains open. Therefore, why not sheathe your sword and allow democracy to take its course? Even Atiku, the convener of the coalition who has contested the presidency more times than Obi, does not see the ADC ticket as a birthright, or a "do or die" thing.
As a true Democrat, Atiku has always shown a willingness to submit to a transparent internal process. Furthermore, he has repeatedly stated that he will support whoever emerges as the winner a commitment he demonstrated after the APC presidential primaries in December 2024.
If you combine Atiku’s and Obi’s 2023 votes, the total is 13 million. With Tinubu’s declining popularity, he would be defeated before noon on Saturday, January 16, 2027. However, if you only combine Obi’s and Kwankwaso’s votes, you get 7.5 million, which fails to surpass Tinubu’s 8.7 million votes from 2023. One might ask about the votes of the supporters of Atiku, El-Rufai, Amaechi, Tambuwal, Hayatudeen, etc; those votes exist, but they will only go to a contender who shows a prior and genuine commitment to supporting whoever wins the ADC primaries.
If Obi truly wants collective support should he clinch the ADC ticket, he must demonstrate his commitment. Like Atiku, he should caution his supporters against misguided campaigns and dissociate himself from the nuisance of those masquerading as supporters.
We are closely watching and studying events as they unfold.
CC;
Mr. Peter Obi
Atiku Abubakar
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Nasir El-Rufai
Sadiq Ibrahim Dasin
