24/08/2026
El Niño is becoming a market factor.
El Niño is strengthening rapidly. NOAA now gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during autumn and winter 2026–27.
For the spice trade, the key area to watch is Southeast Asia, where El Niño typically increases the risk of drier conditions. That puts crops such as pepper, nutmeg, mace and cloves firmly on the weather radar.
The map shows typical historical El Niño precipitation patterns, not a location-specific forecast.
Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 13 Aug 2026 | IRI / Columbia Climate School, 19 Aug 2026
::: (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
