Market Knowledge

05/03/2013

Census Day

The ultimate market research project is happening today – yep its’ Census Day. While many may not get very excited by this event, it is an immensely important survey and has significance beyond knowing how many people live in NZ. And it’s also a relatively rare event, as the last one occurred back in 2006.

From a market research perspective, this is the reference. We are in the business of gathering representative feedback, and the Census is generally the basis for determining what a representative view of the market looks like.

Good political polls (they are not all created equal) need an accurate population reference (age, gender, location) from which to take a sample of 1,000 people, to represent the views of the voters. It’s the same process for many research surveys, and using the 2006 Census is well and truly past it as a reference.

For the first time we can fill in the Census online – a practice that most market researchers are well versed in. And the difference between the online versus paper copy – for me, the online approach was far easier and quicker.

So if you haven’t done so already, fill in the Census. And then sit back and wait, as we won’t know the results for some time. In the meantime, we’ll struggle on with the 2006 results.

17/02/2013

It's always interesting to see where NZ sits on the 'Big Mac' index. Based on this current assessment, our exchange rate is pretty much where it should be! http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-index

Authoritative weekly newspaper focusing on international politics and business news and opinion.

13/02/2013

Before you innovate, make sure you ask the right questions! http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2013/02/before_you_innovate_ask_the_ri.html

Make sure you're not solving the wrong problem.

15/01/2013

A slight bias in reporting? There are still 62% that are satisfied... http://www.gallup.com/poll/159824/americans-dissatisfaction-gun-laws-spikes.aspx

As Vice President Joe Biden leads a federal task force that will recommend ways to curb gun violence in the U.S., 38% of Americans are dissatisfied with the nation's gun laws and want them strengthened, up from 25% in 2012.

15/01/2013

Gallup's Top 10 World News Findings of 2012. http://www.gallup.com/poll/159593/gallup-top-world-news-findings-2012.aspx

Gallup reviews its top 10 world news findings of 2012 based on surveys conducted in more than 140 countries through the Gallup World Poll.

07/01/2013

The 10 Craziest Things Employees Tried to Expense Last Year! http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-01-04/the-10-craziest-things-employees-tried-to-expense-last-year

From live animals to a trip for a job interview, some workers apparently don't see the crazy on their expense reports

14/11/2012

The Importance (or otherwise) of Political Polls.

Unless you’ve been hiding somewhere recently, you’d probably know the US Presidential Election dominated the airwaves for quite some time. It felt like the US election got more coverage that our own.

And integral to that coverage was the predictions made by the polls. This seemed to be oxygen for many in the press, as they could speculate as to what might happen based on these predictions. I lost count of the number of times I heard ‘too close to call’.

For me, the big winner wasn’t Obama, but these political polls. But as a market researcher, that’s not a particularly surprising comment. Now I’m no expert on polling – I know a bit, and importantly what makes a good and bad one, and how to read them.

What was surprising for those who took more than a passing interest in the significant number of polls was the variability in the results. The Economist had a great graphic (linked) which allowed a little more investigation. You could view the overall result, or look at results on a state by state basis, and over time. In some states, the results varied by 3 or 4 percentage points in a single day. Now I know the politicians would like to think that they are they persuasive and can move the masses. But the more likely reason would be the variability in the polls themselves (the questions and the methodological approach).

Which brings me to the point of this article, is that not all polls are the same, so it follows that not all market research is the same either. There is good, accurate and representative research which will provide clear direction and there is research which isn’t.

And importantly there is different levels/skills of interpretation. As we now know the US election wasn’t ‘too close to call’, it was an easy result to pick, if you knew how to read the polls.

-PD

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/11/us-election-2012?fsrc=nlw|newe|11-5-2012|4053512|81881919|AP

12/09/2012

Alcohol Pricing and Behaviour - September 2012:

A little while ago I attended the celebration of all things beer, Beervana, in Wellington. The on-going discussion about alcohol pricing and behaviour naturally came up during the course of the event, and again recently with government debating the minimum purchase age. Government has made their intentions known, which was to basically keep things as they are.

I’ve undertaken numerous market research investigations into the impact of price on behaviour, and the general principle is as you’d expect – increase the price, decrease the purchasing. There are, as always, exceptions. An expensive car at a low price is always suspicious.

I’m reminded of work undertaken by a University of Canterbury academic, where he reviewed a large number of academic articles into the general subject of alcohol purchasing and consumption. The short story was an increase in price reduces the number of people who purchase. But the critical aspect of this was which groups of people stopped purchasing at which price points. Causal infrequent drinkers were the first to change their behaviour when the price increased, while the last group to make a change were the heavy consumers (if memory serves me correctly, when the price was at least 2.5 times higher than ‘normal’).

And it comes back to the fundamental proposition of who’s behaviour needs to be altered? Using a crude tool like pricing will change behaviour, but not necessarily the behaviour of the group you’d like to change. Rather than changing the price of alcohol, why not change the behaviour that results. Those few who abuse alcohol and create mayhem could always be asked to pay for their actions. That would be a far more effective approach to change behaviour.

-PD

28/08/2012

Petrol Pricing August 2012:

I filled the car up yesterday and was surprised by the increase in the price charged at the pump. The exchange rate hasn’t changed significantly, and the price of a barrel of crude hasn’t broken through $100 for a while, and is certainly nowhere near the peak of a few years ago (near $150). Yet the pump price has quietly risen to around $2.22 per litre.

I handed over my supermarket discount voucher to lessen the blow.

So, is it that we consumers are less price sensitive? Haven’t had it drawn to our attention? Consider it to be just another thing that is going up?

Or what?

Clearly supermarkets are driving things along (pun intended) with the aggressive price discounts they offer.

And does the price of petrol already have the discount built in to the price?

Eric Crampton – Uni Canterbury

15/08/2012

As the Olympics draw to a close its fair to say the country is feeling justifiably proud of its athletes and their achievements. Watching the Olympics is an invaluable insight into the psyche of not only an individual, but also a country. Witness the jubilation of NZ getting a bronze in the women’s rowing and contrast with the Australian reaction to coming second in the pool. One country proclaims ‘winners’ and the other ‘loser’.

Listening to commentators during an event also gives you a glimpse of the attitudes within a country. The English commentators tend to back the underdog, the Kiwi commentator hope for the best, but are prepared for the worst, while our friends across the ditch just expect to win, and feel robbed if they don’t.

Showing our relative immaturity as a nation, we often find ways to show our standing on the world stage. Remember the early medal comparisons, and in particular that Picton had more Gold medals than Australia. Then the Stats Department gets in on the action and re-proportions the medal tally to a per capita basis (placing NZ 5th rather than 15th on the official medal table).

Unfortunately this manipulation with the results also happens in the business world. It is relatively common practice for the results to be ‘adjusted’ to suit a particular situation or personal perspective. Yes the results will invariably be more favourable but not necessarily reflect the whole or the true picture. In the end it comes down to the degree of confidence an individual or business has to confront the reality of their situation.

10/08/2012

Changes in consumer behaviour and purchasing patterns in response to the declining economic conditions have been well documented in the press and are easily visible in everyday life. Headlines mentioning that sales are flat or down, store closures, increasing sales and discount levels are an almost everyday occurrence.

While the economic changes are well documented, what is rarely commented on are non-economic changes amongst consumers. In a recent article in The Economist, there is a brief report on the people of Iceland, and some of the ways that they have responded to their country’s economic hardship. Dietary patterns changed (goodbye McDonald’s), bad ‘habits’ decreased and sleep patterns improved. Looking a little closer to home, I wonder how many Kiwi’s would claim they are getting a better night sleep now, than they were a couple of years ago?

WEALTH clearly parts company with health if it makes you nervier, boozier or fatter. But finding data to prove the links is tricky.

07/08/2012

In the recent article regarding the death of cash, the author discusses a number of possible options to replace cash as we know it. Most are ‘solutions’ that reside on a smart phone.

I find it interesting that many of the possible options are far from smart, as they clearly benefit the provider, and pay lip service to the poor old end user, the consumer. I doubt if anything much will change, when a consumer has to carry around a payment option for each of the retail outlets that they frequent. When the ‘new cash’ does arrive, it has to be better than old cash, rather than just a gee-whiz technological approach. Just because it resides on your phone, doesn’t mean it is more convenient. No benefit, low uptake.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/tag/paypal-wallet/

Tech giants - and startups like Square - want you to use your phone to pay for everything from gum to train rides. Here’s how they plan to achieve cash-free nirvana. FORTUNE -- Café Grumpy is the kind of hipster hangout