Bicol Weather Watch Initiative

12/10/2026

ENSO Update (as of 12 October 2026)

-𝑪𝑼𝑹𝑹𝑬𝑵𝑻 𝑬𝑵𝑺𝑶 𝑪𝑶𝑵𝑫𝑰𝑻𝑰𝑶𝑵𝑺-

🌊 : In the last month, equatorial SSTs, as well as subsurface temperatures, were above average east of the Date Line and below average west of the Date Line.

🌥️ : Above-average OLR (suppressed convection and precipitation) was observed for most of the Maritime Continent. Below-average OLR (enhanced convection and precipitation) was evident along the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Enhanced low-level westerly wind anomalies were evident across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

🌡️ : Monthly relative sea surface temperature has reached the strong El Niño threshold in the Niño 3.4 region (2.08 °C) for September 2026.

-𝑬𝑵𝑺𝑶 𝑶𝑼𝑻𝑳𝑶𝑶𝑲-

1️⃣ Official NOAA CPC ENSO probabilities indicate sustained El Niño conditions by the end of 2026, persisting up to the first quarter of 2027.
2️⃣ Strength probabilities also indicate a very strong El Niño to persist until the December-January-February season 2026/27.
3️⃣ Possible weakening may occur after the March-April-May 2027 season.

-𝑹𝑬𝑮𝑰𝑶𝑵𝑨𝑳 𝑹𝑨𝑰𝑵𝑭𝑨𝑳𝑳 𝑭𝑶𝑹𝑬𝑪𝑨𝑺𝑻-
Issued: 23 September 2026
Issued by: DOST-PAGASA CLIMPS

Legend:
🔴 Way Below Normal
🟡 Below Normal
🟢 Near Normal
🔵 Above Normal

OCTOBER 2026
🟡 Albay
🟡 Camarines Norte
🟡 Camarines Sur
🟡 Catanduanes
🟡 Masbate
🟡 Sorsogon

NOVEMBER 2026
🔴 Albay
🟡 Camarines Norte
🔴 Camarines Sur
🟡 Catanduanes
🟡 Masbate
🟡 Sorsogon

DECEMBER 2026
🟡 Albay
🟡 Camarines Norte
🟡 Camarines Sur
🟡 Catanduanes
🔴 Masbate
🟡 Sorsogon

JANUARY 2027
🟡 Albay
🟡 Camarines Norte
🟡 Camarines Sur
🟡 Catanduanes
🟡 Masbate
🟡 Sorsogon

FEBRUARY 2027
🔴 Albay
🔴 Camarines Norte
🔴 Camarines Sur
🔴 Catanduanes
🔴 Masbate
🔴 Sorsogon

MARCH 2027
🔴 Albay
🔴 Camarines Norte
🔴 Camarines Sur
🔴 Catanduanes
🔴 Masbate
🔴 Sorsogon

For more information, please visit the official website of DOST-PAGASA at https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate

To learn more about ENSO: https://bit.ly/ENSOPlaylist

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Source(s): DOST-PAGASA, NOAA-CPC

08/10/2026

08/10/2026

Goodbye, Habagat!

A gradual shift in the prevailing weather pattern has been observed over the past several days, such as the strengthening high pressure system over East Asia, the southward-migrating Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the notable weakening of winds and a decrease in rainfall associated with the Southwest Monsoon.

Forecasts indicate that these conditions are expected to persist in the coming days. In view of this, the Habagat season has officially ended. This also marks the termination of the rainy season over the western sections of Luzon and Visayas.

Read more: https://pagasa.dost.gov.ph/press-release/226

02/10/2026

Matapos ang maulang Agosto, patuloy na humina ang epekto ng habagat sa ating bansa. Ayon sa PAGASA, malapit nang ideklara ang pagtatapos ng Habagat Season sa unang linggo ng Oktubre.

At dahil sa napipintong epekto ng patuloy na lumalakas na El Niño, inaanyayahan ang lahat na patuloy na mag-antabay sa latest updates na inilalabas ng ahensya.

Narito ang latest seasonal forecast para sa buwan ng Oktubre 2026 - Marso 2027: https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/climate-prediction/seasonal-forecast

--
DOST-PAGASA

22/09/2026

Posibleng tumagal hanggang sa kalahati ng taong 2027 ang nararanasan nating El Niño ngayon.

Ayon sa latest forecast ng International Research Institute (IRI) ng Columbia Climate School: "A very strong 2026 El Niño is intensifying, with Niño 3.4 hitting +3.0°C (mid-Sept) and subsurface heat surging. All 22 forecast models agree it will strengthen further, staying “very strong” through winter 2026–27. El Niño probability is 100% through Feb 2027, dropping to 61% by mid-2027. Could rank among the strongest El Niño events on record."

Read more: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Ano ang ibig sabihin nito sa Pilipinas? Panoorin dito: https://bit.ly/ENSOPlaylist

--
Source: IRI

16/09/2026

Tapos na ba ang habagat? Hindi pa, pero malapit na ang simula ng kanyang pagtatapos. Wow 😅. Climatologically speaking, by this time of the month, yung monsoon trough ay magsisimula na to retreat southward, allowing yung initial inflow ng northeasterly winds to reach the tip of Northern Luzon (Matsumoto et al.). Ang tanong: Amihan na ba iyon? Not quite. Hindi pa siya galing sa Siberian High, bagkus ay doon sa dumaraang migratory highs along the mid-latitudes.

Abangan ang mga susunod na kabanata at patuloy na mag-antabay sa mga latest advisories ng DOST-PAGASA.

16/08/2026

Malaking bahagi ng Bicol Region ang makakaranas pa rin ng Near Normal Rainfall conditions ngayong August hanggang September, ngunit pagsapit ng buwan ng October, buong Bicol na ang makakaranas ng mas kakaunting pag-ulan kaysa normal.

Sa buwan ng October ay dito na natin inaasahan ang pagdating ng Amihan season sa bansa.

Source: DOST-PAGASA Regional Forecast Quicklook
https://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/climate/climate-prediction/specialized-forecast

28/03/2026

Aabot hanggang "Caution" level ang tinatayang Heat Index bukas sa Daet, Camarines Norte, at malaking bahagi ng Kabikolan. Dulot ’yan ng easterlies o ’yung mainit na hangin galing sa Pasipiko.

https://iheatmap.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
https://iheatmap.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/
https://iheatmap.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/

--
DOST-PAGASA, ECMWF

21/03/2026

Malakas ba ang Habagat last year? ⛈🌦🤔

Prepared under the MonsoonWatch-PH Project and supported by the DOST-PCIEERD, the 2025 Philippine Southwest Monsoon Assessment technical report supports ongoing efforts to improve the monitoring and understanding of monsoons in the country.

📊 Access the full report here: http://bit.ly/40ETGTy

04/03/2026

The El Niño may return this year, according to official forecasts from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), with more than a 50% chance during the July–August–September (JAS) season.

PAGASA has also started monitoring this climate phenomenon and is set to issue advisories once the criteria under the ENSO Alert and Warning System are met. Meanwhile, the agency issued La Niña Advisory No. 3 last February and expects a transition from La Niña conditions to ENSO-neutral conditions by the January–February–March (JFM) season.

Furthermore, monitoring of the Heat Index officially started on March 1, 2026, to support the country’s preparations for the coming warm and dry season.

--
NOAA-CPC, DOST-PAGASA