15/03/2026
Bow and Arrow
Advance or Retreat in the Middle East Affects Siquijor
The first autobiography I read when I was younger was by Gen. Moshe Dayan.
That book introduced me to the struggle of Israel for statehood, and I learned that Gen Carlos P. Romulo broke the tie of the UN decision to grant state status to Israel in 1948. This decision was allegedly under the threat of the Americans to withdraw all assistance to the Philippines if the country votes otherwise. Retreat was not an option of our country then.
The story of the Gen. Moshe Dayan revolved around World War II and the different wars with Arab were not actually about him but on how the “art of retreat” was mastered by the Israelites.
In the earlier part of this reflection, we examined history through the experiences of Israeli leaders such as Moshe Dayan and David Ben-Gurion, and the strategic lesson that sometimes retreat can be a path toward survival and future advance. Today, however, the situation unfolding in the Middle East invites a different kind of reflection—not merely on strategy, but on consequences.
The continuing tensions between Israel and Iran, along with the broader conflict that has involved militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, have raised serious concerns among governments around the world. If the confrontation continues for a prolonged period—or worse, escalates into a wider regional war—the implications will extend far beyond the Middle East.
Countries like the Philippines, located thousands of kilometers away, will not be immune from the ripple effects. In an increasingly interconnected global economy, conflict in one region can easily disrupt economic stability, security, and food systems in another.
Three areas deserve particular attention: the economy, national security, and food security.
First, the economic impact. The Middle East remains one of the world’s most important sources of oil and energy supply. Any prolonged conflict involving Iran—a major energy producer—could disrupt shipping lanes and oil production in the region. Even the perception of instability is enough to push global oil prices upward.
For the Philippines, which imports most of its fuel requirements, higher oil prices translate quickly into higher transportation costs, increased electricity prices, and rising costs of goods. Inflation becomes harder to control. Public transportation fares may increase. Small businesses feel the pressure. Farmers pay more for fuel and fertilizers.
In short, global conflict could quietly appear in the daily lives of ordinary Filipinos through the prices they pay in the market and at the gas station.
Yet the impact becomes even more pronounced in smaller and more geographically isolated areas.
Take the case of Siquijor, a beautiful but resource-limited island province. Diesel fuel is now more than P100 a liter in the island.
Almost everything consumed in the island—from fuel and construction materials to many food items—is transported from other parts of the country.
The island has already experienced how fragile such dependence can be. When a strong typhoon disrupted sea travel and prevented a fuel shipment from reaching the local electric cooperative, the island suffered a prolonged blackout. Without the delivery of oil needed to run generators, electricity simply stopped.
That experience offers a glimpse of what global disruptions might mean for small islands. If international conflict pushes fuel prices higher or interrupts shipping routes, the cost of transporting goods to islands like Siquijor will inevitably rise. Electricity generation, which depends heavily on imported fuel, could become more expensive or even unstable if supply chains are disrupted.
For communities that rely on steady transport of goods from the mainland, the vulnerability is real.
Second, the security implications. The Philippines has long maintained strong relations with countries in the Middle East, not only diplomatically but also through the presence of thousands of Filipino workers. Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) in the region are pillars of the Philippine economy through the remittances they send home.
Should the conflict widen or destabilize neighboring countries, the safety of Filipino workers could become a serious concern. The government might once again face the difficult task of evacuation and repatriation, as it has done in previous crises in the region. Unemployment in our country can worsen. Social problems like crimes may also rise.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions tend to reshape global alliances and defense priorities. As great powers respond to instability in the Middle East, security dynamics in other regions—including the Indo-Pacific—could shift. For a country like the Philippines, which already navigates complex security concerns in its own neighborhood, global instability adds another layer of strategic uncertainty.
Third, the issue of food security. Many people do not immediately associate Middle East conflicts with food supply. Yet global agriculture is deeply connected to geopolitics.
The world has already experienced how conflict can disrupt food systems. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, for example, significantly affected global grain markets because Ukraine and Russia are among the world’s largest exporters of wheat and fertilizer.
The conflict made the Strait of Hormuz an unstable and dangerous passage for trade.
For a country like the Philippines that imports significant portions of wheat, fertilizers, and other agricultural inputs, these disruptions could translate into higher food prices. Rice production costs could increase. Bread and other staple foods could become more expensive.
The transportation among Asian and ASEAN countries from which we import capital goods, rice and other cereals may become too expensive or worst rice may not be available as they would protect their own people from hunger.
For island communities like Siquijor, the effect could be even more immediate. Food products arriving from Negros Oriental, Cebu, and other nearby provinces depend on regular sea transport. Higher fuel prices mean higher freight costs. And higher freight costs inevitably mean higher food prices in local markets.
In such circumstances, even basic commodities become more expensive for island households.
History reminds us that war is rarely confined to the battlefield. Its consequences travel through trade routes, financial markets, and food systems. A missile fired thousands of kilometers away may eventually affect the price of rice in a Philippine market—or the price of diesel that powers the generators of a small island electric cooperative.
For ordinary citizens, the lesson may be simpler but equally profound. The stability we enjoy in our daily lives often depends on forces far beyond our borders. Global peace and stability are not abstract diplomatic ideals—they are conditions that sustain economic growth, food security, and social well-being.
The strategic reflections of leaders like Dayan remind us that in times of conflict, nations must constantly evaluate when to advance and when to retreat.
But for the rest of the world, including the Philippines—and especially small island communities like Siquijor—the deeper hope remains that wisdom will prevail before the cycle of escalation continues.
Because in the end, the greatest victory for humanity is not victory in war, but the preservation of peace.