30/01/2026
Solar panel and energy storage prices in China are expected to rise by approximately 9% starting in Q4 2025, with further increases in 2026, ending an 18-month period of record-low prices.
This reversal is driven by China's removal of export VAT rebates (effective April 1, 2026), production cuts, and higher manufacturing costs for materials like silver and aluminum.
Key Drivers of Price Increases (2025–2026)
Removal of Export VAT Rebates: Effective April 1, 2026, China is removing the 9% export tax rebate for most solar PV products, significantly raising the cost for international buyers.
Policy-Driven Production Cuts: The Chinese government is intervening to stabilize the market and curb "vicious competition," forcing manufacturers to raise prices to sustainable levels.
Rising Material Costs: Prices for key components, including polysilicon, silver (essential for cell manufacturing), and aluminum, have increased.
Market Consolidation: A shift from oversupply to a more regulated, sustainable market is occurring, with major manufacturers cutting production.
Impact on the Market
Price Increases: Solar module prices are projected to rise around 9% from late 2025 through 2026.
Short-Term Rush: Global buyers are accelerating orders to secure lower, pre-rebateless pricing before April 2026.
Contract Renegotiations: Manufacturers are renegotiating existing contracts to account for higher production costs and the loss of subsidies.
Technology Shifts: Increasing costs may accelerate the adoption of technologies with lower material usage, such as Heterojunction (HJT) cells, which have lower silver consumption compared to other technologies.
