Investor's Forum

19/04/2019

Economic Round up
The most un-cerimonial removal of Asad Umar in which the PM didn't even utter a single word of consollation for him indicates that Asad really brought the economy to a very bad state. Let's see what happened (1) Asad increased inflation thus reduced buying power of people. This reduces sales and thus profitability. Less profitability means less tax collection. It also means the businesses may start to shed manpower thus further decreasing buying power. (2) Asad then increased interest rates thus increasing cost of doing business thus increasing inflation and further reducing buying power (3) He then increased the dollar rate thus increasing our loan without even physically getting it.(4) He did all this on insrtuctions of IMF without getting the loan and when he fully got the country into a great economic mess, he comes back and tells us that IMF would give loan only if we share with them the CPEC and defense deals. Moreover, he then most honourably resigns (5) Although the stock market reacted positively to his removal yet I feel that this joy would not last long as market's in Long run moves on economy and buying power of people. Till that is addressed, I think we should keep our fingers crossed.

14/04/2019

MACD seems to be getting better, watch out for a change

14/04/2019

11/04/2019

Divergence is -133.1, stay out of market.

07/04/2019

FO's statement that India may attack between 16 to 20 Apr is likely to dampen Market sentiments further.

04/04/2019

What can I add if the Fin Minister says go bankrupt or go to IMF

02/04/2019

Sorry guys, was absent for some time. On 28 Mar I planned to take 25% exposure in stock market but didn't do it as market went down. Now current surveys on economy are quite disturbing. Due to inflation the buying power of people will decrease, this will reduce sales and thus profitability of businesses which will adversaly effect the stock prices. If inflation continues, then businesses with lower profitability will shed manpower which will increase unemployment and further reduce buying power and profitability of businesses. In short if situation is not controlled then we might see a recession. But there seems to be no realization of the fact.
With rise in interest rates the cost of doing business will increase and thus prices and with low buying power situation will worsen.
Similarly, increase in dollar rate will further increase the external debit.
So economic picture is not very encouraging pointing that stay away from market till situation clears up.