13/06/2026
๐ FY26โ27 Budget: What It Means for Capital Markets
The new budget lands with a constructive read for equities. Policy tilts back toward growth after years of stabilization. The big positives: no transaction tax, CGT/dividend taxes unchanged, and a clean earnings upgrade from superโtax rationalization.
Macro anchors: Rs18.8trn outlay (+20%), Rs15.3trn FBR target (+17.6%), 4% GDP growth, 3.6% deficit, 2% primary surplus. But debt servicing crosses Rs8trn โ over 40% of the budget.
Why PSX cheered: tax stability, salaried relief, and KSEโ100 still at ~8x forward earnings with a 6.3% yield.
Earnings kicker: super tax abolished up to Rs500mn; top rate cut to 8% above that. EPS uplift 2.7โ3.9% across cement, steel, pharma, autos. Banks, E&Ps, fertilizer excluded.
Winners: cement, construction, real estate, steel, textiles, IT, pharma, refineries, local autos.
Neutrals: power, E&Ps, OMCs.
Laggards: banks, fertilizer.
Construction leads: Rs1trn PSDP, lower duties, Section 7E abolished, and Apna Ghar channeling Rs3.2trn toward 500k homes. Exporters/IT gain from lower taxes, ERF at 4.5%, and the 0.25% IT tax regime extended to 2029.
The catch: the 17.6% revenue jump rests on untested enforcement โ Faceless Centre, algorithmic settlement, bankโdata matching. Ex*****on will decide whether a miniโbudget emerges. *****onRisk
Positioning: Overweight construction, exporters, IT; underweight banks, fertilizer. Watch the revenue runโrate โ the swing factor for FY26โ27.
Sardar-Ali Wattoo Integrated Equities Limited, Pakistan Stock Exchange - PSX SECP Arif Habib Limited The Pakistan Credit Rating Agency Limited [PACRA] Central Depository Company of Pakistan Limited National Clearing Company of Pak Ltd. (NCCPL) State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Ministry of Finance - Pakistan
https://lnkd.in/dUKGXq4q
https://youtu.be/4KlSL2EbKYA?si=4FlfOcLJKY_nFjij
This link will take you to a page thatโs not on LinkedIn