The Economic Pulse

05/09/2026

State Bank of Pakistan clarifies instant payment rail role after FATF report

​Updates: September 5, 2026 | Islamabad, Pakistan. The State Bank of Pakistan has officially dismissed claims that the Financial Action Task Force identified Raast as an instrument for illicit fund transfers. Officials stressed that the recent publication evaluated broader transnational networks rather than questioning the security foundation of local settlement channels.

​The clarification followed an analysis detailing how underground hawala groups exploit low-cost transaction channels globally. Investigators described instances where unauthorized operators utilized fast retail rails for final domestic disbursements. Regulators stated that such usage reflects external exploitation rather than internal technical weaknesses.

​SBP confirmed that Raast operates strictly for domestic payments and maintains rigorous surveillance protocols. The central bank continues monitoring commercial institutions to prevent payment infrastructure misuse. Authorities remain dedicated to enforcing robust compliance across all formal digital gateways.

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05/09/2026

Cnergyico PK (PSX: CNERGY) | Comprehensive Market & Horizon Analysis

​Market Overview & Intraday Structure:
CNER is currently trading at Rs 13.92 (-3.73%), undergoing consolidation following significant upside momentum off its 52-week low of Rs 5.87. Trading activity remains robust, with intraday volume reaching 149.3M shares compared to its 3-month average of 96.9M. Price action is testing the daily central pivot point at Rs 13.89. Immediate resistance levels are placed at Rs 14.07 (R1) and Rs 14.23–14.46 (R2/R3). Primary downside support levels stand at Rs 13.73 (S1), Rs 13.55 (S2), and the session low near Rs 13.17.

​Technical Momentum:
Short-term momentum reflects localized consolidation. The RSI sits at 41.27, and the MACD shows a reading of -0.250, signaling near-term corrective pressure below major moving averages (MA20 at Rs 14.14, MA50 at Rs 14.58). However, an elevated ADX (53.73) highlights strong underlying trend strength, while an intraday Stochastic RSI rebound (74.22) suggests active buyer interest near support zones.

​Fundamentals & Long-Term Drivers:
​Valuation: Compelling entry valuation at a 5.1x trailing P/E multiple on a market cap of Rs 76.47B.

​Turnaround: Quarterly revenues expanded beyond Rs 115B, driving net profitability back into positive territory.

​Catalysts: Progress on Pakistan’s Brownfield Refinery Upgradation Policy unlocks tariff protection via escrow accounts. Modernizing operations will reduce low-value furnace oil output by over 80% while scaling Euro-V gasoline and diesel production. Strategic Single Point Mooring (SPM) assets maintain core logistics advantages.

​Multi-Horizon Strategic Roadmaps:
​6 Months (Technical Swing): Range-bound play targeting Rs 15.50–15.75 resistance. Suggested stop-loss below Rs 12.80.

​1 Year (Milestone Expansion): Target: Rs 17.50–18.50, catalyzed by upgrade pact signings and debt stabilization.

​2 Years (Turnaround Re-Rating): Target: Rs 20.00–24.00 as Euro-V production begins.


​Risk notice: Limit exposure to 3–5% of total portfolio equity.

04/09/2026

04/09/2026

Potential HSD margin cuts put pressure on Pakistan's local refinery sector, EPS Down

Breaking | September 04, 2026 | Karachi, Pakistan! ​The federal government is evaluating a proposal to reduce the refining margin cap on High-Speed Diesel (HSD) from $41.89 to $30 per barrel. Designed to lower consumer fuel prices at the pump, this intervention introduces fresh regulatory friction for domestic refining companies already managing tight working capital.

​Earnings per share (EPS) estimates for listed players ATRL, NRL, PRL, and Cnergyico are expected to feel downward pressure. HSD represents the backbone of revenue for these plants, meaning tighter margin limits directly compress gross margins, reduce net earnings, and weaken future dividend payouts.

​The timing adds further complexity due to persistent delays in finalizing agreements under the Brownfield Refining Policy. Without policy clarity and protected margins, refiners will struggle to arrange project financing for mandatory Euro-V upgrades and deep-conversion capacity.

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04/09/2026

OGDC reports a solid 43% net profit surge in FY26 as corporate tax drops sharply

JUST IN: September 04, 2026 | Islamabad, Pakistan — Oil & Gas Development Company Limited (OGDC) posted a 42.7% surge in full-year net profit to Rs242.37bn for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, compared to Rs169.90bn last year. The board announced a final dividend of Rs6 per share, taking earnings per share to Rs56.35 from Rs39.50.

​Top-line revenue increased 12% to Rs449.19bn, lifting gross profit by 6.5% to Rs246.76bn. Operational overheads expanded significantly, with exploration spending jumping 53.4% to Rs28.78bn and admin expenses up 47.2%, which trimmed operating margins alongside a 33.5% decline in finance and other income.

​The bottom-line surge was driven primarily by a steep 84.7% drop in tax charges, falling from Rs109.41bn down to Rs16.76bn. Associate income also rose 30.9% to Rs16.59bn, helping offset pre-tax pressures and cementing record profitability.

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04/09/2026

FATF warns of new illicit finance risks facing Pakistan despite its list exit

​Updates: September 04, 2026 | Islamabad, Pakistan! ​A new report by the Financial Action Task Force highlights rising financial crime concerns across South Asia. Despite Pakistan exiting the grey list in late 2022, regulators stress that the country still faces active compliance scrutiny. The core challenge remains tackling persistent underground channels that operate beyond standard banking oversight.

​Unregulated hawala operators, informal remittance systems, and shadow brokers continue to serve as major conduits for laundering illicit capital. The watchdog warns that these underground models have evolved rapidly, partnering with professional illicit networks to quickly shift capital across borders without detection.

​At the same time, new threats from fintech platforms, instant digital wallets, and AI-enabled masking tools make detection even harder. FATF emphasizes that lasting financial integrity will require tighter border enforcement and proactive monitoring of modern financial technologies.

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03/09/2026

Updates | September 03, 2026 | Islamabad: Pakistan's trade deficit narrowed 19.69% MoM to $3.17bn in August 2026 from $3.95bn in July, per PBS data. The relief stemmed from imports dropping 17.69% to $5.68bn, which outpaced a 15.01% decline in exports to $2.51bn.

​Yet annual concerns persist: the deficit widened 10.38% YoY compared to August 2025. For the first two months of FY27, cumulative imports of $12.58bn pushed the trade gap to $7.12bn, up 18.11% YoY.

​Can Pakistan sustainably reduce its trade deficit?

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03/09/2026

Pakistan plans offshore oil hub to ease shipping bottlenecks and boost refineries

Updates | September 3, 2026 | Islamabad, ​Pakistan is planning a strategic Oil City at Hub in Balochistan to overhaul maritime crude handling and petroleum logistics. The blueprint centers on an offshore Single Point Mooring (SPM) facility linked to dual subsea pipelines. This setup allows deep-draft Very Large Crude Carriers to offload large fuel volumes directly offshore, bypassing draft restrictions and terminal gridlock at Karachi ports.

​The core of the initiative involves customs-bonded bulk storage infrastructure designed to draw international oil traders and Gulf suppliers. Foreign energy companies can maintain onshore inventories without paying domestic duties until product is cleared for local consumption or re-exported. This guarantees emergency stock access while easing foreign exchange strain on national refineries.

​For local refineries, the project provides just-in-time crude access, lower freight demurrage, and direct pipeline transport to protect operational margins.

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03/09/2026

Updates: September 3, 2026 — Washington, United States. Gold stabilized near $4,400 an ounce following a 1% rebound. Cooling oil prices eased fears of energy inflation after Donald Trump signaled strikes on Iran would remain short-lived. Meanwhile, comments from New York Fed President John Williams regarding softening inflation, combined with ADP data showing only 38,000 jobs added in August, tempered expectations for aggressive interest rate hikes and supported bullion. Will gold prices break past record highs soon?

02/09/2026

US Crude Oil Inventories Drop Sharply By 4.45M Barrels Signaling Tight Supply

​JUST IN: September 2, 2026 | Washington, D.C., United States. The latest weekly Energy Information Administration report reveals a dramatic contraction in domestic commercial crude oil reserves, catching energy analysts off guard. Commercial crude stockpiles dropped by 4.450 million barrels this week, vastly outpacing Wall Street forecasts that anticipated a modest draw of just 0.400 million barrels.

​This sudden shift breaks sharply from last week's inventory build of 0.095 million barrels. Such an aggressive drawdown points directly to stronger industrial demand and tighter domestic supplies, factors that typically drive upward pressure on benchmark petroleum pricing and fuel wholesale costs across global markets.

​With energy prices directly steering macroeconomic inflation readings, central bankers and market participants are closely monitoring these inventory draws. Sustained decreases suggest robust demand that could complicate upcoming interest rate plans and keep oil price trajectories elevated.

​Will tighter oil supplies push energy prices higher?

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