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27/12/2017

U.S. last durable good orders worse than expected. Also last U.S. GDP data ticked down.

The Republican-led U.S. Senate approved sweeping tax legislation, sending the tax cut package back to the House of Representatives for a final vote. Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

Eurozone CPI inflation data (Preliminary release) ticked down while last U.S. Nonfarm payrolls and ADP Nonfarm Employment data surpassed consensus once again.

German Manufacturing data and Ifo data came again higher than expected.
The European Central Bank revised up its forecast for growth and inflation, but added that underlying inflation remains subdued.

We are Overbought from Neutral as we still expect another correction down from 1.185 area (fake breakout). Possible target: 1.176.

Our special Fibo Retracement is confirming the following S/R levels against the Monthly and Weekly Trendlines obtained by connecting the relevant highs and lows back to 2012:

Weekly Trend: Overbought
1st Resistance: 1.1856
2nd Resistance: 1.1990
1st Support: 1.1756
2nd Support: 1.1655

EUR

Recent Facts:

31st of August, German Unemployment + CPI (Preliminary release)
German Unemployment Worse than Expected, CPI Better than Expected

1st of September, Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

7th of September, ECB Press Conference
Draghi said that growth projections were made considering EURUSD @1.18 level (the current or higher levels are considered due to excessive volatility and this is considered to be slowing down CPI measures) and in October some clearer actions will be taken in order to push inflation upwards (possibly by monitoring EURUSD and reducing overshooting in EUR currency levels).

13th of September, Eurozone Employment Change
Better than Expected

15th of September, Eurozone Wages, Trade Balance
Better than Expected

18th of September: Eurozone CPI
As Expected

19th of September: German ZEW Economic Sentiment, German ZEW current conditions
Better than Expected

22nd of September, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected (at its highest since May 2011)

28th of September, Eurozone Inflation data
Worse than Expected

29th of September, German Unemployment Change
Better than Expected

25th of October, French and German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

26th of October, ECB Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Dovish: ECB will extend those purchases to the end of September 2018, or beyond, if necessary

31st of October, Eurozone CPI
Worse than Expected

2nd of November, German Manufacturing + German Unemployment
Better than Expected

14th of November, German GDP
Better than Expected

23rd of November, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

30th of November, Eurozone CPI (Preliminary release)
Lower than Expected

14th of December, German Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

USD

Recent Facts:

28th of July, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
As Expected

1st of August, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Slightly Worse than Expected

2nd of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Worse than Expected

3rd of August, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected (at the lowest since October 2016)

4th of August, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Job Market Better than Expected

8th of August, Job Openings
Better than Expected

10th of August, PPI
Worse than Expected

11th of August, U.S. CPI
Worse than Expected

15th of August, U.S. Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

23rd of August, Manufacturing PMI and New Home Sales
Worse than Expected

29th of August, CB Consumer Confidence
Better than Expected

30th of August, ADP Nonfarm Employment Change + GDP
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Better than Expected, GDP relevantly better than expected

1st of September, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment rate
Worse than Expected

1st of September, ISM Manufacturing
Better than Expected

6th of September, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Worse than Expected

13th of September, PPI
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Retail Sales
Worse than Expected

15th of September, Manufacturing Production + Industrial Production
Worse than Expected

19th of September, Building Permits
Better than Expected

20th of September, FOMC Statement + FOMC Press Conference
Fed confirmed inflation view, labour market growth and scheduled rate hikes

26th of September, Fed Chair Yellen speech
Federal Reserve to continue gradual interest rate hikes despite uncertainty about the path of inflation. It "would be imprudent to keep monetary policy on hold until inflation is back to 2%," she said.

28th of September, U.S. GDP + U.S. job market
Better than Expected

2nd of October, ISM Manufacturing PMI
Better than Expected

4th of October, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI + ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
Better than Expected

6th of October, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Worse than Expected

12th of October, Core PPI
Higher than Expected

13th of October, Core CPI + Retail Sales
Lower than Expected

27th of October, GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

1st of November, FOMC Statement
Slightly Hawkish

3rd of November, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
U.S. Job Creation Surges But Misses Consensus; U.S. Wage Inflation flat

14th of November, PPI
Higher than Expected

30th of November, U.S. GDP (Preliminary release)
GDP Higher than Expected

8th of December, Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate
Better than Expected

13th of December, U.S. Interest Rates
Fed raised Interest Rates but expressed a dovish view about next moves for accompanying a not-so-convincing U.S. economic expansion.

14th of December, Core Retail Sales
Better than Expected

21st of December, GDP
Worse than Expected

22nd of December, Core Durable Good Orders
Worse than Expected

19/12/2017

The US Dollar traded lower against other major currencies with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.22% lower as the upcoming holiday season brings down trading volumes in the US. The South African Rand (ZAR) was trading almost 3% stronger against the Dollar on Monday as the ruling ANC elected Cyril Ramaphosa who is seen as an anti-corruption and pro-business candidate. At the peak the USD/ZAR was over 8.7% lower on Monday compared to its level at the beginning of the month.

Gold traded higher as the tax reform could not add more momentum to the Dollar, which declined on Monday. Oil traded higher as a major oil pipeline in the North Sea is still not fully operational and the unionized workers in Nigeria began their strike.

US equity indices closed at record higher supported by strong bank/financial as well as basic materials stock prices.

While Bitcoin fell from it Sunday high to trading at around the $18 thousand level, other cryptocurrencies traded stronger on Monday with Bitcoin Cash, which is a fork from the Bitcoin blockchain reaching the level of $2,000 for the first time since its short-time surge on the 12th November.

On Tuesday the German IFO institute publishes the result of its business expectations and economic sentiment survey. In the US the Redbook Store Sales figures as well as housing starts and permit numbers will be released. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures.
EUR/USD

The EUR/USD traded higher due to lower trading volumes in the US ahead of the holiday season as well as higher annual inflation figures in the European Union as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices was at 1.5% (previously 1.4%). While the US tax reform will likely pass at last, there were increased concerns that the Republicans could face even more opposition after losing one Alabama Senate seat to the Democrats, as some media voices believe the Democrats could take over the Congress from the Republicans following elections in 2018.

On Tuesday the current account of the US trade balance is due to be published, as well as housing starts and permits data.

iFOREX Daily Analysis : December 19,2017
By iFOREXForex21 minutes ago (Dec 19, 2017 05:57AM ET)

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The US Dollar traded lower against other major currencies with the US Dollar Index (USDX) closing 0.22% lower as the upcoming holiday season brings down trading volumes in the US. The South African Rand (ZAR) was trading almost 3% stronger against the Dollar on Monday as the ruling ANC elected Cyril Ramaphosa who is seen as an anti-corruption and pro-business candidate. At the peak the USD/ZAR was over 8.7% lower on Monday compared to its level at the beginning of the month.

Gold traded higher as the tax reform could not add more momentum to the Dollar, which declined on Monday. Oil traded higher as a major oil pipeline in the North Sea is still not fully operational and the unionized workers in Nigeria began their strike.

US equity indices closed at record higher supported by strong bank/financial as well as basic materials stock prices.

While Bitcoin fell from it Sunday high to trading at around the $18 thousand level, other cryptocurrencies traded stronger on Monday with Bitcoin Cash, which is a fork from the Bitcoin blockchain reaching the level of $2,000 for the first time since its short-time surge on the 12th November.

On Tuesday the German IFO institute publishes the result of its business expectations and economic sentiment survey. In the US the Redbook Store Sales figures as well as housing starts and permit numbers will be released. The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures.
EUR/USD

The EUR/USD traded higher due to lower trading volumes in the US ahead of the holiday season as well as higher annual inflation figures in the European Union as the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices was at 1.5% (previously 1.4%). While the US tax reform will likely pass at last, there were increased concerns that the Republicans could face even more opposition after losing one Alabama Senate seat to the Democrats, as some media voices believe the Democrats could take over the Congress from the Republicans following elections in 2018.

On Tuesday the current account of the US trade balance is due to be published, as well as housing starts and permits data.

EUR/USDEUR/USD

Pivot: 1.176
Support: 1.176 1.1735 1.1715
Resistance: 1.1815 1.1845 1.1865

Scenario 1: long positions above 1.1760 with targets at 1.1815 & 1.1845 in extension.
Scenario 2: below 1.1760 look for further downside with 1.1735 & 1.1715 as targets.
Comment: the RSI is mixed to bullish.
Bitcoin

On Monday the CME Group (NASDAQ:CME) launched its Bitcoin futures settled via the aggregated BRR (Bitcoin Reference Rate), which will be based on prices of major cryptocurrency exchanges. This move is seen by some as a further milestone in making Bitcoin more mainstream and possibly accessible to ETFs. Meanwhile the French government pushes for regulation of the cryptocurrency via the G20 as to assure that the mostly anonymous transaction network is not misused for money laundering and terrorism financing. It is yet to be seen what these measures will look like. When China announced that cryptocurrency exchanges would not be allowed to operate within its borders in September, Bitcoin prices were significantly affected.

Pivot: 18276.6
Support: 18276.6 17322 16753.8
Resistance: 20246.8 20817.4 21388

Scenario 1: as long as 18276.63 is support look for 20817.38.
Scenario 2: the downside breakout of 18276.63 would call for 17322.01 and 16753.78.
Comment: the RSI is above 50. The MACD is below its signal line and positive. The pair could retrace. Moreover, the pair is above its 20 and 50 MAs (respectively at 18858.47 and 18531.76)
WTI Oil

Oil traded higher as there is no solution in sight in Nigerian oil worker’s strike and the faulty North Sea pipeline (Forties) in the North Sea, which normally carries 450 thousand barrels per day, will possibly take up to four weeks to repair.

On Tuesday the American Petroleum Institute (API) will release oil stockpile figures, followed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday

22/10/2017

A build-up of short bets on the Yen and the net-long positioning on CAD has helped reduce the volatility of CAD/JPY’s decline in recent weeks. With Japan’s election just around the corner and an expectation of an Abe victory, sentiment on JPY remains bearish. And with the consensus view being for another BOC hike in Q2 2018, CAD/JPY could be of interest over the coming weeks if all goes to plan.

Canadian Dollar/Japanese YenCanadian Dollar/Japanese Yen

The weekly chart presented a series of higher swing lows as it headed for the 88.88-89.32 resistance zone and looked ready to confirm a long-term inverted Head & Shoulders. Yet the move lower in August poured cold water on the setup, before finally breaking higher in September. That the cross has since turned resistance into support, we have a pivotal zone which could mark a swing low on this chart.

Although the week is yet to close, but we appear to be on track for a bullish engulfing candle. That its low has also respected previous support and follows on from a low volatility retracement makes the potential setup more compelling.

However, before we get too bullish on it potential, it is worth pointing out that each rally higher since the October low has been smaller, with less trajectory. Yet on the other hand, as this is the weekly timeframe it could still provide bullish setups on lower timeframes if momentum continues to favour it.

The daily timeframe is also carving out a series of higher swing lows, and recent price action suggests upside momentum could be building once more. The low volatility retracement found support at the 38.2% Fibonacci level, formed a bullish hammer and inside day as compression kicked in before moving abruptly higher with a range expansion day.

Canadian Dollar/Japanese YenCanadian Dollar/Japanese Yen

Assuming the swing low has been seen, price action suggests the markets could be eying the 91.64 high. As price action on the weekly timeframes is also locked in an uptrend, traders may be gunning for the September 2015 swing high of 93.26.

However, as promising as the technical picture looks for the bull camp, dangers do lay ahead which could either shake one out of a position or turn the tide.

In a few hours FX traders will be treated to a host of data from Canada including inflation and retail sales, so we’ll continue to steer clear of CAD crosses until Monday the earliest. And then there’s Japan’s elections to content with. Elections can be a far more complex beast as it can have a large impact on fiscal and monetary policies and, in this particular instance, a defeat for PM Abe could have a huge impact on the Yen as he is a supporter of quantative easing.

So this puts CAD/JPY firmly onto the backburner until the coast clears, where we’ll reassess the technical picture to see if a tradable opportunity presents itself. And if we are to find that momentum continues to favour the bulls, then we’ll be on the lookout for low volatility entries towards, or even beyond the 91.63 high.

21/10/2017

Global equity bulls were missing in action on Thursday, after weaker corporate earnings, soft economic data from China and heightened political drama in Spain encouraged investors to head to the sidelines.

Interestingly, Asian shares concluded higher on Friday amid confidence over the global economy, while European stocks found support in the form of the US Senate passing a budget proposal – a big step for tax reforms.

With the renewed sense of optimism over Donald Trump’s tax reforms stimulating investor appetite for riskier assets, Wall Street could receive a boost this afternoon.

Dollar rallies on tax reform optimism

The dollar was king today, following reports of the US Senate passing a budget blueprint, which was an important step for Republicans to push ahead with tax reforms.

With the Senate voting 51-49 late on Thursday to the pass the bill, it appears that Trump’s hopes of moving forward with the planned $1.5 trillion tax-cut package, are gaining traction.

While dollar bulls may benefit from the renewed sense of optimism over Trump’s tax reforms, some headwinds could come in the form of uncertainty over who the next chair of the Federal Reserve will be. With markets speculating that Trump may appoint Jerome Powell, who is seen as a dove, to become the next Fed head, bears could make an unwelcome appearance. It should be kept in mind that a dovish Fed Chair has the ability to weigh on the prospects of higher US interest rates in 2018, consequently pressuring the dollar.

Sterling punished by a BoE dove

Sterling extended losses against the dollar on Friday morning, after dovish comments from Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe, prompted investors to reassess the likelihood of a rate hike in November.

After Cunliffe stated on Thursday that there was no clear case for a rate hike in the near future, speculation is now mounting that two of the central bank’s nine policy makers will not be voting for a rate hike in November.

The fact that Sterling sharply depreciated following Cunliffe’s comments, continues to highlight how the currency has become increasingly sensitive to monetary policy speculation.

Theresa May has admitted for the first time that Brexit talks have been in “difficulty,” which is likely to punish Sterling further. With political risk at home, weak economic fundamentals and Brexit uncertainty all weighing heavily on Sterling, further downside is on the cards. Even if the Bank of England raises interest rates in November as is widely expected, in an effort to limit inflation, this may not be enough to heal the bruised buying sentiment towards Sterling.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD has broken below the 1.3150 which may encourage a decline towards 1.3050.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

This has certainly been another interesting week for gold, which has tumbled more than 1.7% after closing above the $1300 level last week. The metal has steadily depreciated in recent days, despite geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty supporting the flight to safety. There is a suspicion that the culprit behind gold’s selloff may be renewed optimism over Donald Trump’s tax reforms. With the US Senate voting for new budget measures on Thursday, the possibility that proposed tax reforms will be passed has increased. This will likely boost the dollar, consequently pressuring gold. From a technical standpoint, the yellow metal remains pressured below the $1300 level. Sustained weakness under $1280 may open a path towards $1267.

Let’s not forget about Bitcoin…

Could everybody’s favorite cryptocurrency be gearing up for another incredible appreciation, that pushes it above $6000?
With politicians, central banks and leading investment banks all showing a keen interest in Bitcoin, bulls are supported and can make another move at any moment. Taking a look at the technical picture, Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline on Wednesday, with prices almost hitting $5100 before losses were aggressively clawed back. This cryptocurrency continues to display its resilience on repeated occasions, with a solid breakout above the $5850 level paving a path towards $6000.

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