Amati & Associates

02/10/2026

The Smaller Partner Just Reported

McCormick Q3: adjusted operating income up 22%, adjusted EPS up 1%. The Unilever Foods deal changes what both numbers mean.

01/10/2026

FMCG is shrinking for growth. Categories can't guide it.

That was my message on stage at Epic Growth Exchange 26.

Between 50% and 70% of FMCG M&A fails to create shareholder value. The cycle still repeats: lust in the boom, penitence after.

→ Unilever is divesting food, after tea and ice cream.
→ Volume growth has stalled, so revenue leaned on price.
→ Aldi and Lidl keep pressing from below.
→ CEO and CMO tenures keep shortening.

The 3 flaws in legacy portfolio frameworks:

1. They rely on historical data
Insurgent brands never show up in last year's numbers.
When they do, it's too late!

2. They starve brand equity
Budgets move to performance marketing and retail media.
Future competitiveness pays the bill.

3. They rely on rigid category boundaries
Collagen moved from skincare into supplements, snacks and functional drinks.
Consumers ignored the category map.

The 3 moves that actually work:

First: Plan around demand spaces, not categories.
Map consumption occasions, shopping missions and desired outcomes.

Second: Find the tension nobody is solving.
In RTD alcohol, sales data pointed to cans. Conjoint research found premium willingness to pay for glass among specific European demographics.
With GLP-1, the job is making healthy food convenient. Not labelling processed food.

Third: Decide what to own, the brand or the route.
Carlsberg distributes Pepsi. Coca-Cola HBC is expanding into premium spirits and coffee.

Thank you to Andy O'Brien and the whole Epic team for a superbly run event.

I left inspired by every keynote. Trond Samuelsen on dynamic pricing at Elkjøp. Billy Carr on the Aldi buying view. Danilo Zatta, Sandeep Mathew, Cantekin Ünlü, Alexandra Pavel and Adam Ben-Yousef on pricing, AI and portfolio strategy.

Special mention to Rory Sutherland. His point: human behaviour regularly defies logic and supporting data.

His target was the cost-plus, finance-led mindset. Price is psychology before it is arithmetic.

Several of these speakers will join me on Growth, Brands and More to go deeper. Andy O'Brien also returns as a guest, with another very interesting piece of research.

The hard truth:

A portfolio built on past years' sales data defends past years' categories.

Demand spaces show where consumers are going next.

29/09/2026

PepsiCo's problem isn't strategy. It's Ex*****on Gravity.

DB just described the symptoms, without naming the cause.

Steve Powers downgraded PepsiCo to Hold from Buy.
His late-2024 upgrade assumed management had diagnosed the North American problem correctly.
Nearly two years later, he is less sure the plan can deliver.

→ Affordability, innovation, distribution gains, brand restaging, productivity-funded reinvestment. All launched.
→ His verdict on the results: "mixed or fleeting benefits."
→ PepsiCo Foods and Beverages NA still struggle to sustain consumption, share or operating leverage.
→ Shares at $128.54. The 52-week low is $126.90. The high was $171.48.

Add a pricing stance that has reversed twice in 30 months.

Most commentary will ask whether PepsiCo is now cheap enough to buy. Wrong question. Ask why five sensible initiatives never stuck.

The share price is the consequence, not the problem. But it matters, because pressure travels. Analyst to board. Board to management. Management to an organisation already running five priorities at once.

The 3 gravity forces I read in this downgrade:

1. Priority diffusion
Five initiatives in parallel. When everything is a priority, the field picks whatever is easiest to execute.

2. Governance instability
A pricing reversal tells the organisation the plan is negotiable. Every new instruction then gets treated as provisional.

3. System self-perpetuation
"Fleeting" is the key word. Initiatives land, then the existing system pulls behaviour back to its old orbit.

The hard truth:

Under board pressure, the usual reflex is a new plan.
That is how companies end up executing Year 1 again and again.

One executive in our research put it plainly: "I have executed Year 1 five, six, seven, eight times in a row."

PepsiCo does not need a sixth initiative. It needs the first five to survive contact with its own organisation.

If you're running an FMCG business under the same pressure:

I have a clear view of what I would do in PepsiCo's position. And what I would recommend to any leadership team caught in the same loop.

It does not fit in a post. It depends on which forces are strongest inside your organisation.

Send me a DM and ask what I think. Let's talk it through.

Prefer to start on your own?
The Ex*****on Gravity Model white paper, with the nine-question diagnostic, is free:

https://www.amati-associates.com/download/

28/09/2026

B**r Companies Have Stopped Being B**r Companies

The ones winning right now got there through category diversification, not geography alone.

26/09/2026

PepsiCo’s Price Cut Was Never Strategy

PFNA revenue down 2%. Operating profit down 8%. Volumes flat. Now the prices are going back up.

25/09/2026

AB InBev Has Stopped Promising B**r Volume

St. Louis, CMD: a category growing 0.3% to 0.5% a year, a $2 billion beyond b**r business, and every hard number pushed to someone else’s session.

24/09/2026

The $900 Million Hole in General Mills’ Turnaround

That’s how much sales the company has lost in NA in 3 years

24/09/2026

Diageo's new CFO isn't the real story. The playbook is.

Sir Dave Lewis just rebuilt his old Tesco team, inside a spirits company.

Sky News broke it Tuesday. Joanne Wilson is leaving WPP to become Diageo's finance chief, reuniting with her former Tesco boss.

→ Sir Dave Lewis became Diageo CEO earlier this year.
→ Wilson ran finance at dunnhumby, Tesco's data arm, under the same Lewis.
→ She replaces Nik Jhangiani, once tipped as a contender for the top job himself.
→ She leaves WPP mid-turnaround, after just three and a half years there.
→ Diageo declined to comment. WPP has been contacted.

Every analyst is asking who the new Diageo CFO is. Wrong question. Ask what kind of turnaround Sir Dave Lewis is building this team for.

The 3 signals in this appointment:

1. This is a reunion, not a hire
Lewis is not shopping the market for a finance chief. He already knows how Wilson runs numbers, because he watched her do it at Tesco.

2. The internal contender is out
Jhangiani was tipped for the top job himself. Instead, he is leaving. Trust beat succession planning.

3. The capital allocation story is already written
Cost cuts are funding a bet on Smirnoff and Captain Morgan. Mass-market, not premium. The same programme will significantly cut headcount. Finance leadership just changed to match that bet.

What this means if you're watching from outside:

First: read leadership moves as strategy signals, not HR news.
Who a new CEO brings in tells you more than any investor deck.

Second: watch capital allocation, not announcements.
Smirnoff and Captain Morgan getting the money tells you where Diageo thinks demand actually sits. Below the K, where the volume still lives.

Third: expect more departures before this settles.
Turnarounds built on trusted operators rarely stop at one hire.

The hard truth:

Diageo did not hire a CFO.
Sir Dave Lewis hired someone who already knows how he runs a turnaround.

That's the headline the official press release will never write.

23/09/2026

September workshops sold out. October dates are now open.

One hour. One strategic problem. 12 seats.

Most growth discussions focus on tactics. This workshop focuses on the harder question: what actually drives profitable growth today?

Three topics. Pick yours.

Volume vs Value Growth

→ Why are many brands growing revenue but losing real demand?
→ When to pursue volume, pricing power, or premiumisation.
→ How to rebalance portfolio, pricing, and distribution.

Demand Spaces

→ How to identify the real occasions where demand is created.
→ Why category definitions hide the most valuable opportunities.
→ How to translate demand spaces into innovation and positioning.

Shrinking for Growth

→ A framework to decide what to stop doing.
→ Why fewer products often drive stronger growth.
→ How simplification improves margins and ex*****on.

The format:

Each session starts with fresh research and strategic observations. Then a confidential Q&A on the real trade-offs you are facing.

Small group. No recordings. No generic webinars. One problem, tackled properly.

Who it's for:

→ PE operating partners and board advisors.
→ Commercial leaders and GMs responsible for growth.
→ CEOs and senior executives in CPG, food, beverage, and alcohol.
→ Strategy and innovation leaders looking beyond incremental.
→ Marketing and category leaders shaping portfolio and pricing.

149 EUR. Several dates per month.

In the words of former participants:

"Focuses on real problems, not generic best practices."

"Helped me ask the hard questions needed to fix our problems."

Reserve your seat here: https://www.amati-associates.com/online-workshops/

21/09/2026

FMCG Portfolios in a K-Shaped Economy - Live with Filiberto Amati & Todd Wirk

A recording from Filiberto Amati's live video