01/07/2026
📈 Markets Continue Climbing, but Not for the Reason Many Think
One of the biggest misconceptions is that stocks rise simply because investors are willing to pay higher prices.
This chart tells a different story.
Over the last two years:
🔵 Forward earnings expectations for the S&P 500 have increased approximately 43%.
🟠 Forward P/E multiples have actually declined by about 5%.
⚪ The index has gained roughly 35%.
In other words, most of the market's advance has been driven by improving corporate earnings, not by investors paying increasingly higher valuation multiples.
That's an important distinction.
When earnings grow faster than stock prices, valuations can actually become more reasonable, even as the market reaches new highs.
It also serves as a reminder that focusing solely on headlines or index levels can cause investors to miss what is really driving long-term returns.
At Freedom Advisory, we believe successful investing comes from separating signal from noise and staying focused on the fundamentals.
Data source: Bloomberg. Chart compares S&P 500 price appreciation, forward 12-month earnings estimates, and forward P/E multiple changes over the past two years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.