Sas Vlad

24/10/2022

We should also look at the root causes of the Ukraine conflict.
And most importantly, we should educate ourselves about foreign policy.

Taiwan might very well be the next Ukraine.
Barking like rabid dogs at anything that western media shows us, refusing to de-escalate conflicts to "set an example," and not acknowledging that these conflicts could've been avoided (and the Taiwan conflict can still be avoided) is exactly the same uneducated herd behavior that prompted people to deplete the stores of toilet paper at the beginning of the pandemic.

No matter what bu****it you're fed in your feed, you should have the minimum decency to understand that seeking peace is the best option.

US foreign policy is almost as bad as Russia's.
If you're not up to speed with what happened in China:
This weekend's 20th National Congress of the CCP basically coronated Xi Jinping emperor for life as he secures an unprecedented third term.

His status within the CCP is now cemented, and his slogans have been enshrined in the party's constitution.
No individual has held this much power in China since Mao himself.

Striking images of former president Hu Jintao being hauled out of the closing ceremonies and humiliated in front of CCP leadership & the press are going viral.

Since then, Hu's name has been purged from Chinese social media, according to HKFP reports.

By all accounts, Hu was a relatively moderate voice within the CCP, which has now been silenced.

One key difference between Xi and Hu was their stance on Taiwan. Hu eschewed overt military action, while Xi favors saber rattling.

Accordingly, the CCP charter's language has now been sharpened to “firmly oppose and contain Taiwanese independence.”

90% of advanced chips are manufactured in Taiwan.
What is the US doing? Sanctioning China and restricting access to advanced tools and equipment needed to manufacture semiconductors.

Then, of course, they started arming Taiwan. Not to mention approving Pelosi's travel to Taiwan to stir the conflict.

If war follows, they can start the western propaganda machine
so idiots across the internet can be distracted by the "evilness" of Russian and Chinese people.

Rinse and repeat in the future whenever the US hegemony is threatened by any rising power. Except, given enough recurring events such as Ukraine and soon-to-be Taiwan, one may get out of hand (and it will be enough).

We discuss Western hegemony and U.S. policy in Russia, Ukraine and China with Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs, whose new article is headlined "Th...

14/10/2022

Part 2: Pension funds margin call
In the first post, we discussed the sharp drop in demand for the bond market and the grim situation the economy finds itself in because of that.

Part 1 here: https://www.facebook.com/const.vlad/posts/195592939523942

Aware or not, you probably have more exposure to bonds than you think. Now let's explore the problematic effects of a drop in bonds. To this avail, we will discuss pension funds.

The interesting and scary bombshell is that some pension funds got margin-called, and others are on edge. You may think: but wait, a margin call happens when you're leveraged. How in the world did pension funds, which are mandated to have a low risk, be leveraged?
This is the interesting part. Pension funds are mandated to hold gov. bonds and rely on bonds to fulfill their targets. It's not like they can gamble on the stock market like the rest of us degenerates. Bonds are , right?... not like Bitcoin or stocks. Corroborate the "safeness" of gov. bonds with the low or negative interest environment we had in the EU space in the last years, and you get the perfect solution for sustainable pension fund growth: leverage bonds.

Yep, that's what happened in the UK. That's why the GBP took a significant hit. Pension funds were leveraged on the same bonds which dropped (discussed in part 1). With a 30% YOY drop in bonds and 2x-4x leverage, your pension would've been close to being a debt without BOE intervention. Ofc, governments, can't let that happen as it would spiral fast towards civil unrest. Solution: as always, print some more money (and still, this is just postponing the issue).

Market response to the issue above? Bought the bonds dip. Why? Because the risk is no longer in just our financial institutions. It's now in the sovereigns themselves.

Follow me for more chit-chat.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-englands-bailey-tells-pension-funds-they-have-3-days-rebalance-2022-10-11/

13/10/2022

Part 1: bond market decline

Over time, central banks have been printing endless amounts of fiat money and then using these funds to absorb government bonds, mortgage backed securities, and other toxic debt.

This money printing keeps the system going for some time, but investors start noticing. This, in correlation with high inflation, dries the demand for these assets and drives government bond yields higher while decreasing the value of existing ones.

When bond yields rise, their value decreases in tandem. Although counter-intuitive, this happens because investors keep expecting new higher-yield bonds on the market.

Higher bond market volatility = higher risk = higher yields for bonds = lower bond values ( in anticipation of more volatility, increasing risk, and higher yields on future bonds ).

People used to put their faith in government bonds as the "safest paper" out there - the ultimate backstop to markets in turmoil. As seen below, this was true for more than 70 years.

Govt. bonds are dropping bad, and the consequences are dire. It should surprise no one that central banks will be forced to support the price by buying them back in an already high and increasing inflation environment. Let us hope they do not become the only buyers of their debt and sacrifice the currency in doing so.

Part 2 coming up: Pension funds

13/10/2022

“Paypal messed up big time.
Now users are cancelling in droves. Here's why it's just starting.

In an epic PR blunder, Paypal included a disturbingly Orwellian update to its new terms of services.

Beginning November 3rd, Paypal had planned to expand its speech restriction rules to now also include:

"...the sending, posting, or publication of any messages, content, or materials that, in Paypal's sole discretion, ... are fraudulent, promote misinformation... or are otherwise unfit for publication."

And non-compliance would result in retribution:

"Acceptable Use Policy violation...may subject you to damages, including liquidated damages of $2'500 U.S. dollars per violation."

To summarize, Paypal thought it was a good idea to steal 2'500 dollars from its users, as punishment for some unspecified moral transgressions.

Interestingly, there's also no time limit on these "violations".

Post something in social media that might become politically unfashionable in a few years down the road?

Well, that's just too bad for you then, isn't it. Better not speak at all.

The public outcry and wide-spread condemnation were swift.

David Marcus, Paypal's former president, was especially outspoken:

"It’s hard for me to openly criticize a company I used to love and gave so much to. But PayPal’s new AUP goes against everything I believe in. A private company now gets to decide to take your money if you say something they disagree with. Insanity."

Elon Musk, one of Paypal's co-founders, also tweeted his agreement with David's sentiment.

Ouch.

Faced with this kind of backlash, Paypal had no choice but to crawl back with its tail between its legs.

“Paypal is not fining people for misinformation and this language was never intended to be inserted in our policy. Our teams are working to correct our policy pages. We’re sorry for the confusion this has caused.”

Despite all signs to the contrary, some people might still be tempted to write the incident off as an error, or a misunderstanding.

It's not. They really meant it.

And the rate of financial censorship is picking up:

-Paypal started working with the Anti-Defamation League (ADL) last year, and plans to clamp down on unwanted users.

-Canadian authorities froze hundreds of bank accounts of their working class citizens for protesting government policies.

-JP Morgan just closed Kanye West's bank accounts as he faces backlash for some recent public statements.

Sure, these are *fringe cases* for now. But not for long. Financial censorship will become the norm, especially as CBDCs get rolled out globally.

Censorship resistant money won't just be a fun gamble in the crypto casino anymore, it will become existentially important.”

19/07/2022

Total Fed "assets" grew by $4B in the past weeks to a total of $9T.

This is not surprising, as Japan and China, which are facing crises of their own, have been dumping hundreds of billions worth of US treasuries into the market over the past 6 months.

Your options:
1. Gold
2. Commodities
3. Bitcoin
4. Real Estate (?)

15/10/2021

The industry is a wild place. It's unreal how the value of money changes when you flip and bag nfts.

If the hype got to you, at least be geared up and well prepared.

I've built a tool that helps you catch the rare nfts bfore OpenSea updates the MetaData. MetaScraper Discord: https://discord.gg/5KRzmRakWebsite: http://meta...

09/09/2021

Cateva criterii d**a care trebuie ales un proiect bun in lumea crypto:

1. Analizati codul, nu povestea. De regula proiectele au un smart contract in spatele lor, sau chiar mai multe repository-uri in care tin codul proiectului. Verificati aceste repository-uri. Daca nu aveti abilitatile tehnice necesare, apelati la un prieten care intelege codul macar partial si verificati ca use-case-ul sa fie real.

2. In cazul utility token-urilor, intrebati-va daca voi, in mod real, ati folosi serviciul respectiv. Am fost abordat de un domn care dorea sa creeze o moneda pentru ca potentialii clienti sa o foloseasca la plata produselor lui intr-un magazin online. Acesta, din pacate, este un exemplu de use-case destul de prost ales pentru o criptomoneda. Aproape nimeni nu vrea sa isi faca un cont pe un exchange, sa cumpere moneda, sa plateasca niste comisioane de tranzactii doar pentru a achizitiona ceva ce putea fi achizitionat cu cardul (poate chiar un card de binance sau alt exchange, ce consuma direct din rezerva de criptomonede a utilizatorului).

3. Verificati echipa. Asigurati-va ca gasiti echipa, ca au profile de social media reale si ca sunt implicati full time in proiect.

4. Feriti-va de proiecte care promit marea cu sarea, dar mai intai vand moneda pentru a obtine finantare si a implementa proiectul. De multe ori echipa nu are experienta necesara, nu acumuleaza suficient capital, sau pur si simplu renunta sa mai construiasca proiectul.

5. Nu puneti botul la scheme de pump and dump. De multe ori grupurile de telegram sau altele (in special cele gratuite) organizeaza pump-and-dump-uri in alte grupuri restranse, iar cand cei din grup sunt invitati sa cumpere, celalt grup vinde imediat. Astfel pump-and-dump-ul e real, dar voi participati doar la dump.

6. Si cel mai important lucru... Ce suna prea bine ca sa fie adevarat, probabil nu este.

Stay safe!

03/09/2021

Feriti-va de scam-uri precum cel de mai jos.
In video-ul asta, respectivul pretinde ca daca lansezi acel smart contract pe retea si apelezi diverse functii, vei obtine din "arbitraj" cica o suma semnificativa de BNB.

Smart contractul il gasiti aici:
https://ghostbin.com/paste/O0YLG
Smart contractul de aici este o sarada pentru cine nu intelege solidity. In realitate functiile din contract nu fac decat sa trimita banii la adresa atacatorului.

Curios este ca acest video are doar comentarii si review-uri bune, alt factor misleading care v-ar putea face sa credeti ca treaba e legit. Un dislike/report ar fi bine venit.

Remix Link - http://remix.ethereum.org/Smart Contract Link - https://ghostbin.com/paste/O0YLGChange Complier version to 0.5.0AVOID USING VERY LOW AMMOUNTS AS...

21/08/2021

Probabil cel mai important episod din seria de tutoriale pe care am facut-o este cel despre testare.
Blockchain-ul este imutabil, astfel ca odata lansat, codul nu se poate updata la fel ca un cod traditional care sta pe un server. Asta intareste nevoia unei testari robuste.
Vizionare placuta!

Daca ai urmarit pana acum si esti pasionat de Solidity ( ti-ar placea un job in domeniu sau sa construiesti ceva pe Blockchain ), sau pur si simplu vrei sa i...

20/08/2021

Am facut un curs de programare blockchain ( in Solidity ) pentru devii care sunt interesati sa dezvolte smart contracts si sa exploreze putin ramura asta a programarii.
E gratuit pe youtube si are 5 episoade de aproximativ 30 min. Daca ai putin background in ale programarii, this should get you started.

O scurta introducere in truffle.js si alte unelte utile pentru programarea in solidity.Resurse: Truffle: https://github.com/trufflesuite/truffle (npm install...