26/08/2019
Political carousel in Bucharest
The Romanian political scene was hot this Summer, lots of changes and twists are also expected for this Fall. In the context of Presidential elections (10 and 24 of November), the fate of the ruling coalition PSD-ALDE was constantly under changing this month, big maneuvers and scenarios being debated from day to day:
- Călin Popescu Tăriceanu, ALDE`s leader and President of the Senate, decided to break apart from the ruling coalition
- the fate of a motion of confidence is also uncertain
Break up for real. The week started with a crucial day for the fate of the PSD-ALDE governing coalition. Although, last week, apparently, PM Viorica Dăncilă and Călin Popescu Tăriceanu, sink the political feud, today Tăriceanu made a U-turn and torpedoed the alliance with PSD.
Driving solo. Monday was probably the last meeting within the coalition members. The steep between the two leaders increased for real after Ms. Dăncila`s move to run for this Fall Presidential elections. Mr. Tăriceanu, on the other hand, who also desired to run-up, did not miss any occasion in the last month to threaten that his political party will withdraw support if PM will not: 1) design a fresh political program and 2) implement a government restructuring. It could be said that all this August political stir was because Mr. Tăriceanu tried to pursue Ms. Dăncilă to stay away from Presidential elections.
All this time, PSD was adamant and claimed what party leaders have decided two weeks ago: 1) PM will operate a governing reshuffle (which already started - nominations will be sent to President Klaus Iohannis next days) 2) the Government will continue to implement the same economic program from 2016.
Empty seats. The Government next steps will be decided in the cross-party meeting of PSD. We remind that ALDE had 4 ministerial portfolios (Environment, Energy, Foreigh Affairs and for Diaspora), at this moment, Tăriceanu ask`s his ministers to resign.
Any change may occur, but we foresee two possibilities:
1. PSD can negotiate with some or all ALDE Ministers to remain in office and continue their projects or,
2. Some or all ALDE`s ministers can resign before the next government meeting, leaving their seats vacant.
Tariceanu will also resign from the position of President of the Senate. Important to say that, Ramona Manescu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, refuses to leave the Office.
PM Viorica Dăncilă speaks about continuity. Besides... things don't seem to be harsh for the Government. Without ALDE`s parliamentary support, there will remain a gap that can be closed on a case-by-case basis through negotiations. Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) are not willing (for now) to join forces with PSD.
Back to ALDE, Tăriceanu is flirting with former PM Victor Ponta, leader of ProRomania to forge a new political alliance. It is possible that after these spectacular movements, ALDE and Pro Romania will support former MEP Mircea Diaconu to run for presidential elections.
Blood underwater. For the Romanian political arena, in the context of Fall`s presidential elections, it's important the next move of National Liberal Party (PNL). Ludovic Orban, PNL`s leader stated that in the next period of time PNL will submit a motion of confidence against Dăncilă III Government. The entire opposition is not prepared to assume the governing and if the disarray from spring`s motion will occur, then probably PM Viorica Dăncilă will not preempted a vote of confidence in Parliament.
source: stackoverflow.com