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CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency, B. Savvinsky Lane, 11, Moscow (2026)

21/03/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Last week, the quotations of thermal coal in the EU again pulled back from the historical highs below 295 USD/t amid easing fears of Russian supply disruptions, owing to the positive developments in the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The entire energy market in Europe, including oil and gas prices, also showed a decline. At the same time, German leading energy company RWE warned that a hasty ban on Russian coal would hurt households and industry, while a shift to coal from other countries could lead to further price upside. Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased to 2.7 mio t (-0.3 mio t w-o-w).
Indices of South African material also fell below 240 USD/t, despite South Africa is still experiencing a supply shortage, on the back of declining production and exports. In 2021 coal extraction amounted to 229 mio t (-18 mio t or -8% y-o-y), while exports fell to 66.2 mio t (-8.7 mio t or -12% y-o-y) the lowest level in more than 20 years.
In China, spot prices for 5500 NAR strengthened by 10.00 USD/t to 246 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. Quotes of thermal material in the Chinese domestic market continued to rise, that was partly due to the uncertainty of coal supply in connection with the expected maintenance of the Daqin railway line, that will be within 25 days of April. Also, China is currently experiencing a COVID-19 outbreak, which along with heavy rains in northern provinces and safety inspections at mines is hampering supply growth.
Australian coal high-CV index 6000 adjusted below 320 USD/t. At the same time, the vessels queue at Australian ports increased significantly, resulting from the temporary closure of the railroad leading to the port of Brisbane caused by heavy rains and floods.
Indonesian material 5900 GAR fell to 238 USD/t, following a general downward trend on global markets. According to market participants the authorities are putting pressure on local coal companies to ensure supplies to the domestic market because of the current deficit, which is estimated at 13 mio t for this year. Some exporters fear that the authorities may re-impose a temporary export ban.
The shortage of metallurgical coal supply on the world market amid heavy rains, storms and floods in Australia, as well as the attempt to replace Russian coal with shipments from other countries supported the indices of Australian metallurgical material above 665 USD/t.

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14/03/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Over the past week, European thermal coal quotations hit new historic highs again amid limited supply on the global market and Russia's ongoing military operation in Ukraine. Russian coal shipments have decreased since the start of the conflict in Ukraine. Shipping data show that coal continues to be supplied from Russian ports to Europe, but some major energy companies, including Centrica, Vattenfall, Orsted, and BP, have taken a wait-and-see approach to buying Russian coal, fearing further sanctions. In fact, global coal markets became the object of an experiment on the hypothetical withdrawal of 1/6 of the supply, accounting for the share of Russian coal in the world market, that led to an unprecedented rise in prices, which may intensify, at least in the short and medium term. As of March 09, 2022, the indices surged above 415 USD/t, subsequently correcting to 360 USD/t. Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased to 3 mio t (-0.1 mio t w-o-w).
South African prices continued to rise above 410 USD/t, primarily on the back of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. European consumers began to actively turn to suppliers from South Africa, but shipments from this region are severely constrained amid continuing problems with the Transnet railway line, connecting the coal-producing provinces of South Africa and the port of Richards Bay. Due to the current logistical issues coal supplies from South Africa in March 2022 may be reduced by 40%.
In China, spot prices for NAR 5500 climbed by almost 50 USD/t up to 235 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. Quotations of thermal coal in the Chinese domestic market also continued to soar. In the current situation of limited supply and progressive price growth, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to accumulate coal inventories of 200 mio t, increase gas storage by 5 billion m3 and build up electricity reserves to 30 GW. NDRC also plans to lift coal production to keep prices down. According to NDRC FOB 5500 spot prices should be capped at 142 USD/t and 110/t for 5500 ex works (EXW).
Australian quotes rose above 410 USD/t, following the global trend of surging coal indices, driven by limited coal supply. European consumers are trying to replenish coal stocks given the shortage of material in the Baltic Sea. However, supplies from Australia are hampered by logistical disruptions caused by heavy rains and storms as a result of La Nina weather phenomenon.
Indonesian 5900 GAR jumped to 270 USD/t, adding 110 USD/t for the week, caused by fears of further cuts in Indonesian export supplies. Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that it will more closely monitor the fulfillment of commitments to supply coal to the domestic market. The ministry instructed the state energy company PLN to monitor the volume of deliveries, transportation and coal unloading at destinations. In 2022 the supply of Indonesian material on the world market is likely to remain tight, that may lead to further increase in global coal prices.
The shortage of metallurgical coal supply on the world market amid heavy rains, storms and floods in Australia, as well as attempts of global consumers to replace volumes of Russian material, strengthened Australian coking coal indices to 650 USD/t.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

09/03/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Last week, the European market faced an unprecedented spike in thermal coal indices amid sanctions on Russia, resulting from the military operation in Ukraine. As of March 02, 2022, the price was climbing to almost 390 USD/t, which subsequently adjusted to 340 USD/t. Since the share of Russian coal in the European market is about 40%, while the share in the global market is 16%, market participants fear that EU countries may impose an embargo on Russian coal imports or ban vessels coming from Russia or under Russian flag from entering their ports, causing the deficit to worsen significantly, as the supply from other exporting countries, including Colombia, South Africa, Australia, USA and Indonesia is already constrained. The European Parliament approved a non-binding resolution, supporting the imposition of restrictive measures in EU seaports on March 01, 2022. The UK has already passed a law, banning Russian vessels from entering its ports. Polish prime minister stated that the blockade of energy supplies from Russia, including oil, gas and coal, should be part of anti-Russian sanctions and Poland is negotiating with other countries for coal supplies, being ready to introduce an embargo as soon as possible, but it requires permission from the European Commission.
At the same time, oil and gas prices also reached historical highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and waning inventories in European storage facilities. Brent crude oil prices exceeded 114 USD/bbl for the first time since June 2014, while gas prices at TTF European hub jumped to 123 EUR/MWh or 1,922 USD/1,000 m3 (+36 EUR/MWh and +456 USD/1,000 m3, respectively, to February 23, 2022).
The surge in quotations of South African material above USD 395 USD/t is also caused by the aggravation of political situation between Russia and Ukraine, as a result of which European consumers are considering the possibility of buying coal from other countries, including South Africa.
In China, spot prices for 5500 NAR rose by almost 24 USD/t to 186 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. The strengthening of steam coal indices in the Chinese domestic market comes despite the tightening of price control measures by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), due to possible reduction of Russian supplies and limited exports of Indonesian coal. The disconnection of some major Russian banks from SWIFT is already complicating trade operations, according to market participants. Also, two large state-owned banks in China, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd., are restricting financing for purchases of Russian commodities as part of their risk management, following Western sanctions against Russia.
Australian coal quotations, which soared above 340 USD/t, follow European indices as the situation between Russia and Ukraine worsens amid an ongoing coal supply shortage on the global market and heavy rains, resulted from La Nina weather phenomenon.
The price of Indonesian 5900 GAR strengthened to 160 USD/t on the back of geopolitical situation, increased demand from China, limited supply due to adverse weather conditions as well as monthly monitoring of coal producers’ compliance with obligations to allocate 25% of their output to Indonesian consumers in the domestic market.
Indices of Australian metallurgical material jumped above 500 USD/t, driven by increased demand from Asian steel mills and a supply shortage amid bad weather in Australia. The prices were also boosted by consumers' concerns on possible termination of Russian deliveries, that could lead to reduction of 28 mio t of metallurgical coal on the international market.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

28/02/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Over the past week, thermal coal quotes on the European market reached a new all-time high, which exceeded 265 USD/t, adding
50 USD/t within one trading session, after the start of Russia's military operation in Ukraine amid the boost in gas indices on the European trading platform TTF to 87.5 EUR/MWh (+11.8 EUR/MWh w-o-w), lower average daily temperatures in some European countries and an increase in electricity prices in Germany.
Quotes of South African material soared to 250 USD/t, driven by high demand from India and the political conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Coal stocks at RBCT terminal amounted to 3 mio t (+0.6 mio t w-o-w) due to issues with coal deliveries via Transnet railway net and current congestion at RBCT, where average vessel waiting time totaled 6 days (+3 days w-o-w).
In China, spot prices for 5500 NAR dropped by 2 USD/t to 161 USD/T FOB Qinhuangdao, caused by the tightening of price control measures by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC).
Australian coal quotes spiked above 255 USD/t, following the European indices as the situation between Russia and Ukraine escalated and the coal supply shortage in the international market intensified.
Indonesian 5900 GAR fell to 139 USD/t FOB Kalimantan on issues with exports supplies due to adverse weather and the need for mining companies to comply with domestic supply obligations (DMO). Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is now checking DMO compliance on a monthly basis to avoid a repeat of coal shortages on the domestic market in the future.
Australian metallurgical coal indices climbed above 455 USD/t on the back of the supply shortage owing to adverse weather in Australia and increased demand from Asian steelmakers.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

22/02/2022

Russian coal mines suspension gains momentum in 2022

Federal service for environmental, technological and nuclear supervision of Russia (Rostekhnadzor) has summarized the outcomes of intensified inspections of coal mines since the beginning of February 2022. As a result of the revealed violations, operations of a number of mining enterprises in Kuzbass were suspended.
Coal extraction was halted at Pervomayskaya mine (owned by Severny Kuzbass JSC) and Yuzhnaya mine (SDS Holding Company) for non-compliance with mining technology. The restrictions also affected Osinnikovskaya mine (Raspadskaya Coal Company).
In February 2022, Rostekhnadzor identified methane accumulation and suspended production for 10 to 90 days at three mines in Kuzbass, including Alardinskaya mine (Yuzhkuzbassugol), Yesaulskaya mine (Evraz Holding) and Anzherskaya Yuzhnaya mine. Also, due to the mining technology violations, operations at the south face of the coal mine #12 (Stroyservis) were ceased for 90 days. On February 15, Kirova mine (SUEK-Kuzbass) had to halt coal mining after numerous violations were discovered by specialists of the Federal service.
The safety checks at coal mines and open-pit mines increased significantly after the accident at Listvyazhnaya mine that killed 51 people last year. The regulator's attention was also drawn to the fire at Rubana mine, owned by SUEK, where coal production was also suspended on December 19 because of the incident (see CAA Russian Coal Weekly dated December 24, 2021). In December 2021 Rostechnadzor also temporarily halted coal extraction at Sibirskaya mine and at TalTEK open-pit mine, where mining operations were carried out with numerous violations (see CAA Russian Coal Weekly dated January 21, 2022).
In addition, at the end of 2021, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that the government should stop issuing new licenses for underground coal mining in the Kuzbass region. According to Novak, as the licenses expire, the number of mines should decrease.
At the end of January - beginning of February 2022 about 15 coal-mining enterprises were halted. The emerging trend of suspending coal mines after mass inspections may have a significant impact on the volume of production and supply of Russian coal to the world market.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

21/02/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Last week, thermal coal indices on the European market fell below 170 USD/t, despite the persisting supply shortage in the global market. The price decrease was caused by the news on de-escalation of tensions on the border between Russia and Ukraine. Forecasts of milder weather in the northwestern Europe and an upward revision of the wind generation forecast in Germany also put pressure on coal quotations.
Coal stocks at ARA terminals kept decreasing to 3.1 mio t (-0.3 mio t w-o-w).
South African coal prices continued hovering around 200 USD/t, driven by growing demand from European consumers, owing to a sustained tight supply, particularly from Russian companies.
In China, spot prices for 5500 NAR fell by 25 USD/t to 163 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. Pressure on indices comes from a statement by China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), according to which FOB 5500 spot quotes should be capped at
142 USD/t instead of 157 USD/t previously reported and 110 USD/t EXW. Moreover, the regulator urged Chinese companies to increase production. Authorities in most Chinese provinces published an official notification on the introduction of the price cap. Nevertheless, some large suppliers and traders are not able to sell coal at the set prices, as they do not cover their costs.
Correction on the paper market, caused by profit taking amid the drop of coal indices in China led to a decrease in Australian material prices below 230 USD/t.
Indonesian 5900 GAR climbed to 140 USD/t FOB Kalimantan, supported by the limited supply due to a spike in the number of Omicron cases among employees of mining and coal transportation companies.
Australian coking coal indexes remained below 440 USD/t. The growth of metallurgical coal prices is limited by reduced demand on the back of steel production restrictions in China for the period of the Olympic Games.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

16/02/2022

Coal shipments to Rosterminalugol constrained by rail issues

The logistical issues in Russia have been disrupting coal railings since Q4 2021, leading to the material being held up at mines, further limiting supply of the crucial material in the global market. In 2022, the situation has not improved, quite the contrary.
As compared to the planned tonnage, 0.5 mio t of coal or 24% were underloaded to Rosterminalugol (Ust-Luga Coal Terminal) in January 2022 and 0.5 mio t of coal or 66% in February 2022. In January 2022, due to reduced coal railings, Rosterminalugol, the largest coal terminal in the west side of Russia, received only 1.5 mio t of coal, down 20% y-o-y. In February 2022, the terminal expects to receive just 0.7 mio t, a whopping 59% drop y-o-y and 53% m-o-m. In fact, Rosterminalugol is able to handle up to 28 mio t per year. Last year 24.3 mio t were exported through the terminal which means that monthly throughput has to be 2 mio t at least.
RZD, Russian state-owned rail operator, fails to deliver proper volumes of the cargo to the port despite the approved schedule. This is largely caused by rail maintenance, a large number of abandoned trains on the railway network as well as a lack of workforce affected by COVID-19 and omicron variant, resulting in lower locomotive availability. Usually, RZD replaces 3 coal trains with 1 container train, prioritizing the latter.
Subsequently, KRU (Kuzbassrazrezugol), the major coal supplier through Rosterminalugol, struggles to move some of its coal to the terminal and falls short of its plans. However, the mining giant can’t declare force-majeure officially, because RZD continuously imposes bans on coal shipments without providing any documents related to such restrictive measures.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency Ростерминалуголь

16/02/2022

Vostochny Port to expand its throughput capacity up to
70 mio t

The Russian state regulator approved the project for the reconstruction of the berths of the stevedoring company JSC Vostochny Port. It is expected that after the upgrade, the transshipment capacity of the largest coal terminal in the Far East will increase to approximately 70 mio t/year from current 50 mio t.
The reconstruction envisages an extension of the existing 300-meter berth No. 51. The project also provides for the construction of a pier 24 meters wide and an installation of stationary belt conveyors for feeding coal to shiploaders.
The depth at berths No. 51 and 52 will amount to 16.5 meters with a further increase to 18 meters, while the dredging operations on the approach channel and in the maneuvering area of two piers will provide a design depth of 19 meters, making it the deepest terminal in the region.
With the already existing coal transshipment throughput expanded up to 50 mio t in 2019, JSC Vostochny Port in 2021 handled only
25.0 mio t of coal (-2.0 mio t or -7.4% y-o-y), which is just half of the current capacity.
The negative trend is largely caused by logistical constraints on the Russian Railways (RZD) network and a reduction in coal transportation schedules by RZD amid limited capacities of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and the Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR). Thus, so far RZD is unable to ensure coal shipments in the required volumes and, as a result, port facilities in the Far East remain underutilized, hindering the increase in Russian coal exports.

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12/02/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Over the past week, thermal coal quotes on the European market again hit the level of 200 USD/t, following the continuing supply shortage on the global market. An additional factor for the price growth was the reduction of the nuclear power target for 2022 by the French energy group EDF to a record low of 295-315TWh, resulting from ongoing inspections and maintenance works at the company's nuclear power plants. In line with this, the French government announced an increase in coal consumption limits amid winter power supply issues.
Coal stocks at ARA terminals kept decreasing, having totaled 3.4 mio t (-0.1 mio t w-o-w).
South African coal indices strengthened above 200 USD/t amid a spike in domestic prices in China and a persistent supply deficit on the international market. Coal stocks at Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) climbed to 2.2 mio t. (+0.2 mio t w-o-w), still sitting at 5-year lows.
In China, spot prices for 5,500 NAR surged by 12 USD/t to 188 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. Additional safety and environmental inspections during the Olympic Games in Beijing (February 04-20, 2022) as well as the suspension of some mines in Shanxi province led to the upturn in coal quotations on the Chinese domestic market.
On February 09, 2022, the China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that FOB 5500 spot prices should be capped at 142 USD/t instead of previously reported 158 USD/t.
High trading activity of Asian consumers, who returned to the market after the New Year holidays (January 31-February 06, 2022) had a positive effect on the indexes of Australian material above 245 USD/t.
High demand from China and India firmed Indonesian 5900 GAR quotes to 136 USD/t FOB Kalimantan. Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources suspended mining permits of 81 coal companies for not submitting production schedules and budgets for 2022.
Australian metallurgical coal indices slightly corrected below 440 USD/t, still holding at historical highs amid limited supply on the world market.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

07/02/2022

World coal market: brief overview

Last week, the European market saw a drop in thermal coal quotations below 180 USD/t amid lower gas prices, the lifting of the ban on coal exports from Indonesia and the probable easing of tensions around the political situation between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, the US administration asked the largest LNG consumers in Asia-Pacific to reduce purchases in order to increase supplies to Europe. Milder weather and the growth of wind generation in Europe were additional factors, which had a negative impact on coal prices.
Coal stocks at ARA terminals decreased to the lowest level since June 2016, amounting to 3.5 mio t (-0.2 mio t to January 26, 2022).
South African indices pulled back from 3-month highs, slumping to 185 USD/t as the ban on coal exports from Indonesia was lifted. At the same time, coal inventories at Richards Bay Coal Terminal decreased to about 2 mio t, which is a record low level for the last 5 years. In 2021, South Africa's total coal exports fell to a 20-year low of 63 mio t (-10 mio t or -14% y-o-y), resulting from rail infrastructure issues.
From January 31 to February 06, China is celebrating the New Year, significantly reducing business activity in the domestic market. Chinese spot prices for 5,500 NAR strengthened by 5 USD/t to 176 USD/t FOB Qinhuangdao. Nevertheless, China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), following a meeting with major mining companies last week, stated that domestic thermal coal prices could fall after the holidays. The NDRC instructed suppliers not to raise prices above 140-157 USD/t FOB and 110 USD/t EXW for 5,500 kcal/kg NAR, while urging rail and port operators not to accept cargos, priced above this threshold.
Australian coal prices plunged below 230 USD/t as exports recovered, following a decline in COVID-19 cases in Australia, the lifting of the ban on coal exports from Indonesia as well as low trading activity due to the Chinese New Year holidays.
Strong demand from China, ahead of the Olympics and Chinese New Year holidays, supported Indonesian 5900 GAR up to
135 USD/t FOB Kalimantan. Indonesia completely lifted the coal export ban, imposed by the government from January 01 to January 31, 2022.
Australian coking coal indices maintained at historical highs of 440-445 USD/t, driven by the persisting supply shortages on the global markets.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

05/02/2022

Russia to boost coal exports to China

Russia is negotiating to enhance coal supplies to China. Potential annual growth could reach 50 mio t in case of favorable market conditions and increase in railway carrying capacity.
China is already the largest importer of Russian coal. It accounted for almost 18% or 39.6 mio t of export supplies from Russia in 2020. In 2021, Russian coal exports to China surged to 57 mio t (+17.4 mio t or +44% y-o-y), while total exports of Russian coal in 2021 amounted to about 225 mio t.
Currently Russian coal companies are poised to expand supplies to China.
Kolmar plans to double coal output by 2023 up to 24 mio t per year and increase shipments to China to 9 mio t of coal concentrate.
Elgaugol supplied more than 8.5 mio t to China in 2021, more than 3 times higher than in 2020, with the shipments planned for 2022 in the amount of 16–18 mio t.
Sibanthracite also intends to ramp up exports to the Chinese market. In 2021, the company's supplies to China increased by 18% to 8.4 mio t and in 2022 its exports may grow by more than 30% and exceed 11 mio t.
SUEK lifted exports to China by 20% to 7.6 mio t. The company sees an additional opportunity to increase deliveries to China through railway border crossings up to 2.5 mio t per year.
China is keen to import coking coal due to its shortage, caused by the embargo on supplies from Australia. Another driver, which may affect the growth in demand for seaborne material could be the tightening of coal mining regulations in China.
However, a significant increase in deliveries to China largely depends on the development of the Baikal-Amur Mainline (BAM) and Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR). In 2020, the railway carrying capacity of the Eastern range was 144 mio t, including 122 mio t accounted for coal. As part of the second stage of the modernization of the Eastern range, the throughput capacity should increase to 180 mio t in 2024. The upgrade of the infrastructure will ensure the capacity growth by 30-40 mio t, but it may take from four to seven years.

#уголь #рынокугля #СовременноеАналитическоеАгентство CAA Contemporary Analytical Agency

02/02/2022

Coal production in Kuzbass up 10% in Jan-Dec 2021

Under the Ministry of Coal Industry of Kuzbass, in January-December 2021 coal mining enterprises in Kuzbass produced 243.1 mio t of coal (+22.4 mio t or +10.1% to January-December 2020). The production of coking coal during this period decreased to 71.7 mio t (-2.8 mio t or -3.8% y-o-y), whereas thermal coal extraction volumes amounted to 171.4 mio t (+25.2 mio t or +17.2% y-o-y).
Coal companies produced 156.0 mio t (+16.7 mio t or +12.0% y-o-y) at open-pit mines and 87.1 mio t (+5.7 mio t or +7.0% y-o-y) through underground mining.
In December 2021, 16.9 mio t of coal were delivered to end-users, including 11.4 mio t (-0.3 mio t or -2.6% y-o-y) for export,
2.8 mio t (flat y-o-y) to Russian metallurgical companies and 1.3 mio t (+0.1 mio t or +8.3% y-o-y) to local coal-fired power plants.
As of January 01, 2021, coal stocks in Kuzbass totaled 17.2 mio t (+1.0 mio t or +5.5% to January 01, 2020).

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