Quantum Leap - Financial Trading Institute

14/05/2020

The truth hurts, but this is a good article that lifts the veil on what's really happening in the property market now.

How much should a developer or property agent reveal to a homebuyer? Is it ethical to sell something to someone knowing the price will eventually drop? Why does the seller always get all the upside while the buyer forever get the short end of the stick?

27/03/2020

Fast and furious rises in the last 3 days. The market is SOOOOO ripe for profit-taking!

18/03/2020

In the last few days, world leaders launched a series of bazookas, some unprecedented, in a bid to help businesses survive in this covid virus, and more importantly of all, provide some kinda assurance or confidence to the financial markets. Alas, the market staged a weak rebound before starting their descent again. True to what I'd shared earlier - any rebounds are likely to be short-lived.

The market is obviously in a shell-shocked situation. The uncertainty is just too great for anyone to be able to value business accurately. How much will earnings fall (assuming the business remains viable)? How do you forecast cashflow?

It is clear that the covid cases will continue to climb. SG, after achieving some stability in the last few weeks, are seeing cases hike again. This shows that false dawns are definitely possible in this covid situation, and we should not let down our guard even if cases seem to subside.

I believe we need a full lockdown for 30 days, in countries that are seriously hit by covid, sacrifice the economic activities during this period (short term pain to avoid a longer term pain). In other words, hibernate. This will go a long way to nip the virus in the bud and stop the spread.

Of course, if someone comes out with a miracle vaccine, that will definitely stem the bleeding.

Without any of these two "antidotes", markets are likely to continue with its freefall, as funds face redemptions and deleveraging. We need confidence and certainty to be injected into the market again.

Did someone just say that the olympics will still go on? 🤦‍♂️

16/03/2020

S&P futures chiong in the last half hour of trading last Fri to end with +9%. It closed at exactly our compass cyan marker. Well, we are in a bear market, so we do expect that it will bounce off the cyan and continue its downward spiral.

Indeed, S&P futures hit level 1 circuit breaker just within half an hour after market opened this morning, so S&P is expected to open 9% lower later.

We need to see some relief in the number of cases of COVID 19, but we are still far away from it. Instead, things are getting worse with more countries going into a lock down. Economic activities have come to a standstill. Money is not flowing in the system. As such, expect the roller coaster to continue.

On the local front, the banks are looking attractive from a book value and yield perspective.

2,300 for S&P is in sight.

11/03/2020

The bears are out in full force, as we are in both a health crisis and oil crisis, hence any rebounds in the stock market will likely be short-lived. With de-risking in full gear, stocks are becoming attractive in valuation, but we don't know when we will reach a bottom. So the best thing to do now is to watch the show, and buy into dips - in tranches. And yes, we will soon hear of corporate bankruptcies.

Many traders who sold S&P puts, esp. naked ones, are one of the most bruised in the recent market carnage. This is all a result of complacency, believing the markets can keep going higher. Alas, options premium earned over the years can vanish within a week, plus deep capital losses when their margins dry up due to the spike in volatility. Those who even thought of buying puts to "repair" during this time, its like buying a plate of chicken rice at $1,000 - they are just overpriced! Even if some managed to buy puts, when the market takes a small rebound, their puts depreciate significantly, causing them further distress. The hole they are digging simply gets bigger.

As policymakers rush out monetary and fiscal policies, although this may give the market a slight respite, but this may actually plant the seeds for another financial crisis - years later - so we shall leave the discussion on this for next time.

With COVID-19 no signs of abating, and Russia vs Saudi ongoing, 2,500 on S&P looks achievable by next week. And the ammunition that policymakers around the world have to deal with this crisis, are slowly depleting.

Buckle up.

23/01/2020

Weakness spotted on S&P. It didnt manage to clear 3,322, and "gek sai" below our compass. At 3,313 now, worth taking a quick trade to 3,303. Stop at 3,323 for a 1-1 R-R .

Wishing all Quantum Leap students a prosperous year of the Rat! Huat ah!

17/01/2020

We are having our next Forex Master class on 22 Feb, and 25 Feb (evening). This particular class will be small and cosy because we are opening it only to the community who "like" or "follow" our FB page, and folks who attended our workshops before.

If you are keen to learn how we trade, drop us a FB msg, or whatsapp us at 84500986. See you then! 😀