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Blue Ashva Capital, Level 24, CapitaGreen, 138 Market Street, Singapore (2026)

05/09/2026

From Trump’s takeover threats to a ‘northern neighborhood,’ why the EU chief is going to Greenland

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will travel to Greenland’s capital on Sunday, seeking to shore up support for the Arctic island against a backdrop of repeated threats from U.S. President Donald Trump.

The EU chief is widely expected to announce fresh funding for the self-governing Danish territory, when she makes her second trip to Nuuk, in the company of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.

It comes shortly after Icelanders voted to reject restarting EU membership negotiations and as Trump renews his push to acquire Greenland on national security grounds.

Greenlandic Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen made a thinly veiled reference to Trump’s pursuit to acquire the island ahead of Von der Leyen’s visit.

“The EU has made clear its support for us in the geopolitical situation, while responding to our desire for even greater partnership. I look very much forward to the coming days and to share more about the importance of the Joint Declaration for Greenland,” Nielsen said in a statement shared with CNBC.

Analysts highlighted three key reasons for Von der Leyen’s Greenland visit: Arctic security, economic and infrastructure investment and broader cooperation in the North Atlantic and wider Arctic theater.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, did not respond to a CNBC request for comment ahead of Von der Leyen’s visit. A spokesperson for Denmark’s Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

Arctic security

The EU chief’s trip to Nuuk serves as a show of solidarity to both Greenland and Denmark at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions, according to Kristina Spohr, professor in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics.

“We must never lose sight with what’s going on with Russia and China. By that, I don’t just mean the sabotage activity and hybrid warfare that we see, and the focus has now been on Germany, but actually again we have question marks over Russian trawlers around Svalbard,” Spohr told CNBC by video call.

“We also see that the Chinese and Russians are doing dual-use scientific action in the Chukchi Sea, through the Bering Strait further north. And, of course, America has said they must not enter American national waters.”

These security concerns also extend to the so-called GIUK gap, Spohr said, referring to a strategic maritime passage between Greenland, Iceland and the U.K. that links the Arctic to the Atlantic Ocean.

“So, it’s very, very volatile … when actually one of our most important allies in the global scheme of things, the United States, is making life incredibly difficult, especially when it comes to Greenland and Denmark,” she added.

Trump has long advocated for control of Greenland, a vast, sparsely populated and largely frozen island, but the U.S. president’s fixation on the territory became a major trans-Atlantic issue at the start of the year.

Trump, who had refused to rule out the use of military force to annex Greenland, abruptly announced in late January, however, that he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had formed a “framework of a future deal” with respect to the territory.

A working group of representatives from the U.S., Denmark and Greenland have since been meeting to discuss the way forward.

Local investment

The EU’s Greenland funding package for 2026 and 2027, which the Financial Times reported may amount to 200 million euros ($232.4 million), could target areas such as critical minerals, renewable energy and undersea cables, among other priorities.

Von der Leyen had previously opened the European Commission’s office in Nuuk in March 2024, establishing a permanent European presence in the country. The EU chief also signed cooperation agreements worth close to 94 million euros at the time.

“There are several layers but the one layer we should never forget is the Greenland-Denmark relationship,” Andreas Raspotnik, senior fellow at The Arctic Institute think tank, told CNBC by telephone.

“The approach now is very clear: What can we really do? We can invest, we can offer support on pre-agreed issues such as infrastructure, investments in education and increasing our presence there.”

Jozef Síkela, the EU’s commissioner for international partnerships, recently highlighted some of the EU’s investments in Greenland during a gathering to discuss Arctic affairs in Brussels.

“The EU has invested in Arctic education, fisheries and sustainable tourism for decades. €372 million into Arctic research through Horizon, €273 million through Interreg,” Síkela said Tuesday at the EU Arctic Forum. “We are not newcomers here. But today’s environment demands more,” he added.

‘Northern neighborhood’

Von der Leyen’s visit to Greenland is also seen as a prime opportunity for the EU to coordinate closely with regional leaders on issues such as defense and economic resilience, particularly given the bloc is in the process of updating its Arctic policy.

“I think that the strategic thinking is changing in Brussels as they consider how they can even better include Greenland into, maybe you want to call it the northern neighborhood,” Raspotnik said.

“I hear that term as well now, you know, we have an eastern neighborhood, we have a southern neighborhood but how can we define the north? And by north, that means Iceland, it means Canada and it means the U.K.,” he continued.

“How can we more strategically think about these partners, those states that are outside the EU in the north?”

Greenland is scheduled to host on Monday a biannual national meeting with Denmark’s Frederiksen and Faroese Premier Beinir Johannesen.

“These times commit us to working closely together. Like being three people in the same boat, we must row together and ensure a common direction that is the way it is in the current system,” Nielsen said.

04/09/2026

World’s biggest sovereign wealth fund plans to cut U.S. Treasury holdings

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has proposed cutting the allocation of government bonds in its $2.3 trillion investment portfolio, chiefly affecting its holdings of U.S. Treasurys, as it seeks to diversify its risk exposure and boost returns.

The heads of Norges Bank Investment Management wrote in a letter to the country’s finance ministry, made public Friday, that it recommended reducing the government subindex of its bond holdings from 70% to 50% — a level it said would provide sufficient liquidity during market turbulence while allowing it to seek greater returns elsewhere.

The proposed reallocation would gradually cut NBIM’s Treasury holdings from 34.1% to 21.9%, reduce its euro area holdings from 16.8% to 14.1%, and increase its share of Japanese government bonds to 7.4% from 4.6%.

NBIM also wants to begin weighting its government bond holdings by market value instead of GDP because of the high debt loads of almost all developed economies,

Treasurys under pressure
The potential shift would come at a sensitive time for the Treasury market, with long-dated yields pushed to decade-highs as investors fret over the U.S. fiscal trajectory and increasingly heavy debt load.

“Reliable buyers and holders of U.S. Treasurys are under pressure,” economist Mohamed El-Erian told CNBC’s Carolin Roth in a Friday interview, citing Japan, China and Gulf countries.

Addressing NBIM’s proposal to reduce its own share of Treasurys, El-Erian said: “The size isn’t big, but the signal that traditional holders and buyers are becoming less reliable is a very important one.”

NBIM plans to increase its holdings of non-government U.S. fixed income, such as corporate bonds, to 27.6% from 16.2%.

CEO Nicolai Tangen and Norway’s central bank chief Ida Wolden Bache said the fund could earn higher premiums by diversifying into riskier assets, such as mortgage-backed securities, which they judge as well-positioned to weather as a long-term investor.

Tangen and Wolden Bache said mortgage-backed securities, made infamous during the 2008 Financial Crisis, tend to move in the opposite direction to equities during crises and so could provide an “additional reduction of volatility” more similar to government bonds than corporate bonds.

NBIM currently holds around $1.65 trillion in equities — with ownership of almost 1.5% of all shares in the world’s listed companies — and $592 billion in fixed income.

The fund, established in 1998 to invest revenues from Norwegian oil with strict guardrails to preserve its longevity, has made record profits in recent quarters from its huge investments in U.S. and Asian tech firms and beneficiaries of the AI boom, such as semiconductor stocks.

However, Tangen has warned that those levels of returns will not be sustainable in the case of a market downturn. In the first quarter of 2025, it swung to a $40 billion loss as investors turned risk-off.

A recent stress test by NBIM found that an AI correction could wipe $740 billion, or 35%, off its value.

03/09/2026

Dutch central bank moves gold bars out of U.S. and Canada, citing ‘crisis preparedness’

The Dutch central bank (DNB) has transferred approximately 86 tons of gold out of the U.S. and Canada to the U.K., seeking to shore up its contingency planning in view of “increasing geopolitical unrest.”

Just over one-quarter of the central bank’s gold reserves held in New York and Ottawa had been shifted to London between March and August, DNB said Wednesday.

The transferred gold is now stored with the Bank of England because gold stored there must meet international trade standards and is recognized as “the world’s most easily tradable gold,” DNB said, adding that the move strengthens its “crisis preparedness.”

By contrast, DNB said the gold bars held in the U.S. and Canada could not be utilized as quickly and directly in a crisis situation.

“With this relocation, we have improved the tradability of our gold reserves. We expect that we will never need to use them, but we do need to strengthen our resilience and preparedness,” DNB Governor Olaf Sleijpen said in a statement.

The move comes amid a blockbuster rally in gold prices and continued U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, with a comprehensive settlement agreement far from certain.

The price of gold, which is typically considered a safe-haven asset at times of financial uncertainty, has jumped nearly 25% over the past 12 months. The yellow metal is currently trading at $4,429.61 per ounce, up nearly 1% for the session.

The move from the Dutch central bank comes after the French central bank replaced 129 tons of gold held at the New York Federal Reserve between July 2025 and January 2026.

Bank of France Governor ⁠Francois Villeroy de Galhau said at the time that the move was not politically motivated.

In light of the latest transfer, DNB said the geographical spread of its gold reserves was “more balanced,” with London now holding 32.1%, the central bank’s cash center in Zeist in the Netherlands holding 30.8% and New York and Ottawa holding 18.5%, respectively.

02/09/2026

Iran says two tankers have hit Hormuz naval mines, attacks regional targets in retaliation to U.S. strikes

Two oil tankers struck naval mines while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Wednesday, after the Iranian military made retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the Middle East.

In a statement shared by state media, the influential hardline military group said the vessels had been disabled and forced to disembark their crew after ignoring warnings to take an “illegal route” through the Strait.

President Donald Trump said he was “not trying to force Iran to the bargaining table,” as U.S. forces completed a fresh round of strikes against the Middle Eastern country on Tuesday stateside.

The latest exchange of military strikes came as the Financial Times published an investigative report claiming Russia was secretly helping Iran to develop advanced supersonic cruise missiles capable of threatening U.S. aircraft carriers and other warships in the region.

In a Truth Social post, Trump reiterated that the U.S. has “almost total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, while adding that Tehran’s economy was collapsing.

He said that Iran was just “playing out the inevitable” and asked, “When are the Iranian people going to rise up and fight?”

In a post on X, the U.S. Central Command said that it struck air defense and communications sites, and radar systems in Iran, in retaliation against the “recent attempted attacks” by the country against commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and against American service members.

Tehran has responded to American strikes, targeting U.S. ally Jordan. The country’s armed forces said that it was targeted by a missile attack that originated from Iranian territory.

A spokesperson for Jordan’s armed forces said on X that 10 of 13 missiles were intercepted by the country’s air defense systems, with the three fell in remote areas. No injuries or deaths were reported.

Bahrain’s armed forces said on Instagram Wednesday that they had intercepted and destroyed “treacherous Iranian air strikes today,” following an earlier announcement by Bahrain’s interior ministry of “an alert of potential threat.”

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business Tuesday that the Strait of Hormuz will become a “worthless piece of water” in two years, arguing that oil will instead flow across land pipelines and bypass the Strait.

Strikes on Sunday were the first time that the U.S. and Iran traded attacks in about a month, and after the Trump administration said it was launching an “economic D-Day” on Tehran’s backers.

31/08/2026

Selamat Merdeka buat semua yang memanggil Malaysia sebagai rumah. 🇲🇾❤️

Tidak kira di mana kita berada dalam negara ini, kita tetap berkongsi satu tanah air.

Moga hubungan sesama rakyat terus terpelihara dan tiada perbezaan yang mengatasi rasa hormat kepada satu sama lain.

Let kindness be part of the Malaysian spirit.

Semoga bumi yang kita cintai ini terus aman untuk hari ini dan hari-hari seterusnya.

Happy Independence Day! ✨

28/08/2026

Judge again blocks Trump mail ballot executive order in ruling that’s likely to be swiftly appealed

A federal judge on Thursday halted — at least for now — attempts to implement President Donald Trump’s executive order limiting mail voting.

The move stalled the directive for a second time only about a week before the first mail ballots are due to be sent out for the rapidly approaching midterm elections. U.S. District Court Judge Indira Talwani blocked the government from implementing the order for two weeks.

The case could soon be appealed back to the Supreme Court, days after the justices handed down a procedural decision that allowed the administration to move ahead.

The ruling Thursday came after Democrats and voting rights groups refiled their lawsuits to comply with the recent Supreme Court decision. The high court’s conservative majority did not rule on the legality of Trump’s executive order, instead saying Talwani had acted too soon.

Now the administration has issued a formal rule governing whether the U.S. Postal Service will deliver states’ mail ballots, effectively restarting the legal fight.

The whipsawing legal battle has major ramifications for the midterms. Nearly one-third of Americans vote by mail and election officials contend there isn’t enough time to revise their systems to comply with the new Postal Service directives.

The Postal Service says it won’t deliver mail ballots unless states provide a list of voters who should receive them and format the envelopes in a certain way.

“Plaintiff states have neither time nor funds to design new mail ballots, seek approval of the new designs, order production of mail ballots, update their own election management systems, train election officials to use the USPS portal and upload citizen data to the portal, all before the midterms,” Talwani wrote Thursday.

The White House did not immediately respond to a message seeking comment. A hearing in the case is set for Sept. 3.

“This rule is a clear attempt by the federal government to interfere in elections it has no power to control. Today, a federal court halted it before this administration could wreak havoc on our elections,” New York Attorney General Letitia James, one of two dozen Democratic attorneys general who filed one of the suits, said in a statement after the order.

Democrats and voting rights groups contend the Postal Services’ demand is unconstitutional. The Constitution, they note, grants states and, in some cases, Congress the power to make election rules — not the president or Postal Service.

That reasoning led courts to block Trump’s first executive order, issued last year, that sought to change election procedures, such as requiring documentary proof of citizenship to register.

The president has long targeted mail voting, which he falsely blames for his 2020 election loss even though he himself uses it to cast his ballot.

A report by the Brookings Institution published in 2025 found that mail voting fraud occurred in only about four cases out of every 10 million mail ballots cast.

Trump issued the executive order targeting mail voting, his second one related to elections since he returned to office, in March.

Opponents quickly sued, but the administration argued the claims were premature because it hadn’t issued rules outlining how it would implement the order. The administration won an initial case in Washington, D.C., with that reasoning, but Talwani placed injunctions against implementing the order for the November midterms in two separate cases she heard in Boston.

The Supreme Court’s conservative majority on Monday struck down one of those holds.

Talwani, nominated to the bench by President Barack Obama, reluctantly removed the second injunction shortly after. The plaintiffs then moved to refile their cases, citing the Postal Service’s publishing of its final rule, in hopes of winning a more durable victory.

27/08/2026

Qatari PM heads to Iran to ‘de-escalate tensions’ as tanker attack tests Trump’s Hormuz claim

The Prime Minister of U.S.-ally Qatar is in Iran for talks on Thursday as part of efforts to “de-escalate tensions” between Tehran and Washington.

Qatar, which has served as a back channel between the warring countries, announced Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani would visit Tehran to “discuss ways to de-escalate tensions and create the conditions conducive to dialogue.”

It came after the UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said that another oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz early on Thursday, the latest in a string of sporadic attacks that have kept ships away from the vital energy corridor.

A spokesperson for Bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said in a post on X that the Qatari Prime Minister is due to “meet with a number of Iranian officials” during his visit.

“The discussions will also address freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz & the need for it to return to the status quo prior to February 28,” he said.

Hormuz tanker attack undermines Trump claims
The UKMTO said the latest attack on an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was reported off the Omani coast, adding that the resulting fire had been extinguished, all crew members were reported safe, and an investigation was underway.

Traffic through Hormuz has trended lower this week and remains far below pre-war levels, even as the U.S. has sought to help es**rt vessels along the Omani side of the strait. Last week, an attack on a cargo ship transiting the waterway killed a crew member.

Only five ships made confirmed crossings Tuesday, down from seven the day before and a collapse from more than 130 vessels a day before the war, according to Kpler. All five crossings used the unilateral route Iran has designated for shipping, the tracking firm said.

U.S. allies are skeptical that Iran’s mines in the strait have been fully cleared, Bloomberg reported, casting doubt over President Donald Trump’s claims that the waterway was safe for passage.

The report came after Trump said Wednesday that the Hormuz waterway had been fully cleared of mines, calling it “a functioning strait.”

“Yes, every once in a while there will be a drone or a rocket or something shot, but it is a very functioning strait. A lot of oil is pouring out,” Trump said.

Iran and Oman, meanwhile, have agreed on a temporary maritime corridor intended to restore safer passage through the strait.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi, however, warned that the waterway will not fully reopen until the U.S. fulfils its commitments under an interim peace deal framework signed in June, which has since lapsed.

The U.S. military has maintained a naval blockade against Iranian ships in the vital chokepoint, and used the southern Omani lane to es**rt oil tankers in and out of the Gulf.

This week saw the Trump administration launch an “economic onslaught” against Iran’s financial connections around the world, upping the ante on countries and entities that maintain economic ties with Tehran. That escalation has scuttled prospects of peace talks between Washington and Tehran.

In an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday, Trump said he has “no time schedule” for when he expects to resume the talks with Iran to put an end to the six-month war. When asked if economic pressure was more effective than military strikes, Trump said, “I think they are both effective.”

In a diplomatic outreach following the U.S. sanctions campaign against the Iranian economy, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called on the UN and its member governments to condemn what he described as U.S. “economic terrorism,” arguing the UN bears “legal and moral responsibility” to denounce the sanctions campaign as “illegal and criminal.”

26/08/2026

Iran and Oman prepare Hormuz deal as U.S. holds back on secondary sanctions

Iran and Oman are approaching a deal to secure safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz and future administration of the vital economic artery.

The Gulf nations said in a joint statement on Tuesday that their respective foreign ministers had discussed a “proposed framework” to establish “a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement to implement a joint project to clear the Strait of mines.”

Oil prices have extended recent losses in response to the statement, with international benchmark Brent Crude
falling below the $90 per barrel market overnight.

Just five commodity vessels transited the Strait of ‌Hormuz on Tuesday, below the ⁠10-day average of 15, according to preliminary data from Kpler. Roughly a fifth of global crude flows typically flowed through the Strait before the Iran conflict.

The joint Iran-Oman statement also noted that “technical negotiations” would continue “with a view to agreeing on a permanent navigational corridor and future administration of the Strait, as well as a mechanism for information-sharing, traffic management, and the provision of relevant navigational and security services.”

Contributing to pressure on oil prices in recent days, the U.S. has reportedly started returning its diplomats to Gulf states – suggesting Washington does not currently expect military escalation. Russia’s RIA Novosti also reported late on Tuesday that the U.S. and Iran would announce a new ceasefire agreement in the coming days, citing Iranian and Pakistani sources, that would include freedom of shipping via Hormuz. However, this could not be independently verified, and the White House did not respond to MS Now’s request for comment.

It comes after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s pledge on Monday to launch an “economic D-day” on the Iranian regime, threatening to target Tehran’s “enablers” and trading partners in efforts to strangle its economy. This included a list of 60 individuals, entities and vessels.

However, the U.S. has so far held off on imposing significant secondary sanctions on other nations — including, significantly, Chinese financial firms suspected of facilitating Iran’s oil trade.

“Why would I want to blow up the global financial system? We believe that it is important to level set and give people a cure period, but they should know that that will move very quickly and that we are serious,” Bessent said on Monday.

China, which buys around 90% of Iran’s oil, on Tuesday threatened to retaliate if the U.S. opted to expand economic pressure on nations trading with Tehran.

Beijing “will take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its rights and interests,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday.

25/08/2026

Oil drops 3% to 12-day low as Iran claims two-year plan to cope with Washington’s ‘economic D-Day’

Oil prices fell to more than a one-week low on Tuesday, as investors shrugged off supply concerns and Washington and Tehran’s intensifying war of words ahead of “economic D-Day.”

Front-month Brent crude oil futures
were last seen trading 3% lower at $89.40 per barrel, its lowest since Aug. 13. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
oil futures fell 3.2% to trade around $82.32 a barrel.

Tuesday’s moves extended declines seen on Monday, when Brent prices fell by 3%.

On Tuesday morning, the New York Times reported that the U.S. State Department was preparing to return evacuated American diplomats to the Middle East as early as this week, suggesting the government is not anticipating a return to all-out warfare.

While U.S. strikes in the Middle East have quieted in recent weeks, Washington has instead made moves to exert huge economic pressure on Iran.

The U.S. government unveiled a fresh raft of sanctions on Iran this week, as well as so-called “enablers” that continue to trade with the country.

The White House has labeled its efforts an “economic D-Day,” with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent touting the initiative as “the single greatest financial offensive ever” on Monday.

Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told reporters on Monday that the prospect of further American strikes in the Middle East remained on the table.

“If we need to use kinetic strikes, we’ll use them,” he said. “If Iran is foolish enough to overplay their hand or mess with the American military, we’ll do what we need to do.”

“Economic pressure hurts them the most right now,” he said of the Iranian regime. “But by no means are we foreclosing using kinetic strikes anywhere in the Strait of Hormuz or around Iran.”

Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said on state television that Tehran is “fully prepared” to withstand more U.S. sanctions.

“The government is and was ready and has a two-year plan to manage these events,” he said. “We have our own tools and we know how to play the game.”

China vows to defend its interests
China, one of Iran’s largest trading partners, has repeatedly called for a diplomatic end to the U.S.-Iran war. Under the new “economic D-Day” plans, China could face ramifications for continuing to buy Iranian oil.

On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin Jian told reporters Beijing would “do everything necessary to firmly safeguard its rights and interests.”

“China has made clear on many occasions its firm opposition to illicit unilateral sanctions that have no basis in international law or the authorization of the UN Security Council,” he said. “Economic warfare and maximum pressure provide no solution.”

He added that China’s cooperation with Iran is conducted within the framework of international law, and should therefore not be disrupted.

In a Tuesday note, BBH strategists said the Trump administration’s latest tactics were “more of a warning shot than a decisive blow.”

“The U.S. expanded sanctions on Iran but stopped short of any immediate secondary sanctions against other countries sustaining Iran’s trade. China is the critical pressure point — it is Iran’s largest trading partner and buys roughly 90% of its oil exports — and the biggest constraint on making the sanctions credible.”

They added that targeting China as a trading partner of Iran would mean targeting major Chinese banks and refiners, “risking financial disruption, Chinese retaliation, and the fragile US-China détente.”

24/08/2026

‘They asked too much’: Canadian dollar slides as Ottawa and Washington head for all-out trade war

The Canadian dollar fell on Monday morning after trade talks between Ottawa and Washington fell apart, leaving both sides facing higher prices on a wide array of imported goods.

The U.S. on Saturday slapped 50% tariffs on around $20 billion worth of imports from Canada, its second-biggest trading partner after Mexico. The affected goods span dairy, w**e, wood products, ceramics and a slew of other areas.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said he would retaliate “dollar for dollar” with tariffs starting Sept. 8, targeting sectors such as steel, dairy, agricultural equipment, paper and electronics. Details will be released “in the coming days,” Carney added.

The Canadian dollar was 0.45% lower against the U.S. dollar at 6:10 a.m. ET. The loonie also dipped against the euro, British pound and Japanese yen.

“As a smaller, more open economy, Canada has more to lose from this, but Prime Minister Mark Carney seems to have opened the door to more fiscal stimulus to support affected business,” FX strategists at bank ING wrote in a Monday note.

Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics, told CNBC that Canada faced a bigger impact on growth and inflation than the U.S.

“The high levy rate means the most exposed industries could be crippled,” Saunders said by email, highlighting that there is no longer an exemption for goods that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) — currently under renegotiation — as there was with previous tariffs.

Though the targeted goods only comprise around 0.6% of Canada’s GDP, “a collapse in exports would still be enough to push already-weak GDP growth back towards zero,” he said.

“This would especially be the case if weaker US demand for finished items such as furniture and electrical equipment had knock-on effects on upstream primary industries, which are already struggling under the strain of Section 232 tariffs.”

The situation could escalate further if U.S. President Donald Trump retaliates to Canada’s countermeasures, Saunders added, estimating that extending the 50% tariffs to 20% of Canada’s U.S. goods exports, from 5% previously, could knock around 2% from Canadian GDP and push it into recession territory.

‘We got attacked’
Negotiators had been scrambling to strike a deal all week, with officials suggesting one was close. But rhetoric turned sour by the weekend, with each side blaming the other for failing to reach an agreement.

Carney said the U.S. had “asked too much and offered too little.”

“We were not prepared to compromise Canada’s sovereignty or undermine our key industries,” he said.

When asked by a reporter why it felt like Canada was entering into a trade war, Carney replied: “Because we got attacked. You’re at war when you get attacked. We got attacked.”

“Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Sunday. “They have also charged our great farmers, for many years, massive amounts of Tariffs. No more!!!”

Blue Ashva Capital

05/09/2026

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