19/05/2026
The 2026 geopolitical conflict in the Middle East extends far beyond crude oil.
It is actively threatening Southeast Asia's food security through critical energy and fertiliser supply chains.
With 20-30% of global oil and LNG locked, and approximately 33% of globally traded fertilisers halted at the Strait of Hormuz, the region is facing an unprecedented logistical shock. Because roughly 50% of food production costs are intrinsically tied to energy prices, the rapid +50% surge in urea prices is triggering a severe chain reaction.
From high export risks threatening Thailand and Vietnam to severe import cost vulnerabilities in Indonesia and the Philippines, ASEAN's structural dependence on imported nitrogen exposes the entire region to systemic inflation. Surviving this disruption requires immediate strategic pivots, such as pooling regional purchases and accelerating regenerative agriculture.