09/06/2026
Due to the uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the ’s latest has two scenarios:
➡️ In a time-limited disruption scenario, Gulf energy production and trade return to pre-conflict levels starting in mid-2026, gradually easing the disruptions.
➡️ The second scenario assumes that Gulf energy production and export disruptions will continue through 2027. This scenario suggests higher energy prices, supply shortages and tighter global financial conditions, which could have wider and longer-term effects on the global economy.
Given the high level of uncertainty, countries’ central banks need to keep inflation expectations well anchored. However, if inflation rises or growth slows, adjustments to monetary policy may be needed.
Learn more: https://brnw.ch/21x32YU