22/01/2026
🇺🇦🌾Ukrainian milling wheat could see a short-term demand upside – ASAP Agri
Ukrainian milling wheat continues to struggle for demand this season, pressured by ample global supplies and aggressive price competition, mainly from russian origin, across key export destinations. Still, a short-term window for improved buying interest may open in the near term.
Once russia’s grain export quota comes into force on 15 February, any delays in issuing export licenses could temporarily tighten nearby russian availability. That scenario would likely redirect prompt demand toward Ukrainian wheat, supporting bid ideas and lifting trading activity if russia’s export pace slows. Additionally, local analysts have already trimmed russia’s January export projections as winter weather disrupts port operations.
Egypt looks like the clearest source of demand upside. Despite a difficult export environment—intense competition, repeated attacks on port infrastructure, and power shortages—Ukraine shipped 2.0 MMT of wheat to Egypt in July–December 2025/26, sharply above 0.8 MMT in the same period a year earlier. An additional 141 KMT has been shipped to Egypt so far in January. Any further Egyptian demand would be especially supportive given Ukraine’s sharp loss of access to the EU market this season following the bloc’s reinstatement of import quotas.
🎤More detailed insights on grain import demand across the MENA region will be presented by Daria Marchenko, commodity broker at Atria Brokers, at the FoodAgro Meetup in Dubai on 26 January https://lnkd.in/dSWM3Van.