04/11/2020
American election results will be fully out in the next 5 Days.
We can predict this is 4 (not so simple) steps using Monte Carlo's Markov Chain.
1. Create the Sample space (Ω) (a list of all possible outcomes) - Trump Wins (TW), Biden Wins (BW), Trump Loses (TL), Biden Loses (BL).
2. Assign probabilities to sample space elements at time t (now)- TW = 48.4%, BW = 50.0%, TL = 21.1%, BL = 11.9%
3. Identify the events of interest in the next 5 Days - 80% of the votes have been counted. Counting the 20% comprising mail-in votes and provisional ballots is the big deal giving us 2 events of interest, - 1. Trump wins more states, 2. Biden Wins more states. This is better than just getting the remaining 21.1% for Trump or 11.9% for Biden because of the influence of the Electoral College in American Election.
4. Calculate the probabilities for the events of interest after 5 days when all votes are counted- Trump Wins more states from the remaining votes (T), Biden Wins more states from the remaining votes (B).
In our opinion, this wait would be more interesting if all states had policies similar to Nebraska and Maine, where the electoral college votes are handed out proportionately instead of the State winner taking all the electoral college votes.
Authored by Khalid Ndeko