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13/04/2021

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21/04/2020

21/04/2020

Think of it this way: There are two kinds of failure. The first comes from never trying out your ideas because you are afraid, or because you are waiting for the perfect time. This kind of failure you can never learn from, and such timidity will destroy you. The second kind comes from a bold and venturesome spirit. If you fail in this way, the hit that you take to your reputation is greatly outweighed by what you learn. Repeated failure will toughen your spirit and show you with absolute clarity how things must be done.

Robert Greene, Mastery

13/01/2020

Why I think buying Ugandan Shares on USE was a stupid idea.

Many years back, i was out of a job by choice (i quit to study financial markets), i went to USE (Uganda Stock Exchanges) to see how people where making money out of financial markets in Uganda. I talked to brokers and other people there. It soon dawned on me that these people where just showing off to sell but did not know what they where doing.

They had only crammed if you buy shares now the price will go up. Imagine the guy who bought into microsoft when it was just starting he is now a billionaire.

I asked, "do you have any past data of all companies on the exchange" ( i think they where less than 10)? I was directed where they keep them. I was given these big black box files where only daily opening and closing prices where recorded.

I asked them don't you have any way these where charted so i can have a quick view of trends of these stocks. I realised continuing to talk to them was a waste of time. I made copies of the data and i took them to TC (if you studied at MUBS u know) where i was staying at the time.

I got this charting software input the data and i got to see how the most traded stocks behaved. I think i was the first Ugandan do or have this information summarized like this.

What the charts showed was quite shocking because all stocks where ranging. Its was contradicting what stock brokers where telling people that prices where rising.

You see to make money in stocks you buy low and sell high. In advanced markets they allow your to sell high and buy low but that wasn't applicable at low tech USE. The other way is to wait for dividends (the stupidest way to make money on stock exchange if you own less than 1% of the company, though stock brokers will tell you its smart)

Stocks move in three ways. They trend up( price moving up), move down (prices falling) or move in a range/consolidate (move nowhere)

So all Ugandan stocks moved nowhere. Its not that you cant make money in a consolidating market but also trading Ugandan stocks was a challenge. With the information a had gathered, one would have made money on it but the brokerage fees where high and also the process of exchanging shares from person to the next was so stone-age. U had to wait for weeks to get a certificate. To make money in market ranges you have to get in and out of the market fast. But also the ranges where so tight, i did not see any stock that had double in price for over a year.

By the nature of the stocks and the efficiency of the USE. It was had to make money on USE.

The Uganda Clays disaster.

I think in the year i charted, they had done a share split because its share prices tanked and its like showed no sign of recovery. And i was thinking who in their right thinking mind would buy Uganda Clays shares. Most of their products where outdated and i could not see how they could magically grow.

I tried to sell the idea of charting stocks to the founder of Crested Stocks so that it would be easier for them to sell stocks but he was telling me how companies on USE where so few that he knew when prices where to raise or not. And he was right. The only big player was NSSF so he knew when they where to buy so he would maybe tell people to buy early (it is criminal in developed markets. It is called insider trading)

So if U wanted to make money on USE you had to make it off NSSF.

I sat down and asked myself why are all stocks ranging? This was my conclusion.

All initial public companies where created the same way when USE was being started. These where government cooperations which where privatised. They where mostly sold to companies already listed on other Bigger Stock markets like stanbic bank is a subsidiary of Standard bank listed in South Africa. Uganda companies could not grow out of Uganda because they would now compete with their parent companies so they had to remain confined in Uganda. If a company has no chance of growth even if its profitable. Its price would range forever.

I was like F**k USE and its stocks.

If u bought Uganda clays at 140/- your stocks are now worthless.

New vision tanked from 2000/- to 300/-

Uganda Telecom, Weyayu ?

I remember as if National housing was listed, NHL, weyayu ?

Stanbic Bank has ranged for some time but if you bought at the lows you have some value created.

It looks like British American to***co was privatised. It has no current prices. But it looks like those who had that stock enjoyed.

13/01/2020

Why I think buying Ugandan Shares on USE was a stupid idea.

Many years back, i was out of a job by choice (i quit to study financial markets), i went to USE (Uganda Stock Exchanges) to see how people where making money out of financial markets in Uganda. I talked to brokers and other people there. It soon dawned on me that these people where just showing off to sell but did not know what they where doing.

They had only crammed if you buy shares now the price will go up. Imagine the guy who bought into microsoft when it was just starting he is now a billionaire.

I asked, "do you have any past data of all companies on the exchange" ( i think they where less than 10)? I was directed where they keep them. I was given these big black box files where only daily opening and closing prices where recorded.

I asked them don't you have any way these where charted so i can have a quick view of trends of these stocks. I realised continuing to talk to them was a waste of time. I made copies of the data and i took them to TC (if you studied at MUBS u know) where i was staying at the time.

I got this charting software input the data and i got to see how the most traded stocks behaved. I think i was the first Ugandan do or have this information summarized like this.

What the charts showed was quite shocking because all stocks where ranging. Its was contradicting what stock brokers where telling people that prices where rising.

You see to make money in stocks you buy low and sell high. In advanced markets they allow your to sell high and buy low but that wasn't applicable at low tech USE. The other way is to wait for dividends (the stupidest way to make money on stock exchange if you own less than 1% of the company, though stock brokers will tell you its smart)

Stocks move in three ways. They trend up( price moving up), move down (prices falling) or move in a range/consolidate (move nowhere)

So all Ugandan stocks moved nowhere. Its not that you cant make money in a consolidating market but also trading Ugandan stocks was a challenge. With the information a had gathered, i would have made money on it but the brokerage fees where high and also the process of exchanging shares from person to the next was so stone-age. U had to wait for weeks to get a certificate. To make money in market ranges you have to get in and out of the market fast. But also the ranges where so tight, i did not see any stock that had double in price for over a year.

By the nature of the stocks and the efficiency of the USE. It was had to make money on USE.

The Uganda Clays disaster.

I think in the year i charted, they had done a share split because its share prices tanked and its like showed no sign of recovery. And i was thinking who in their right thinking mind would buy Uganda Clays shares. Most of their products where outdated and i could not see how they could magically grow.

I tried to sell the idea of charting stocks to the founder of Crested Stocks so that it would be easier for them to sell stocks but he was telling me how companies on USE where so few that he knew when prices where to raise or not. And he was right. The only big player was NSSF so he knew when they where to buy so he would maybe tell people to buy early (it is criminal in developed markets. It is called insider trading)

So if U wanted to make money on USE you had to make it off NSSF.

I sat down and asked myself why are all stocks ranging? This was my conclusion.

All initial public companies where created the same way when USE was being started. These where government cooperations which where privatised. They where mostly sold to companies already listed on other Bigger Stock markets like stanbic bank is a subsidiary of Standard bank listed in South Africa. Uganda companies could not grow out of Uganda because they would now compete with their parent companies so they had to remain confined in Uganda. If a company has no chance of growth even if its profitable. Its price would range forever.

I was like F**k USE and its stocks.

If u bought Uganda clays at 140/- your stocks are now worthless.

New vision tanked from 2000/- to 300/-

Uganda Telecom, Weyayu ?

I remember as if National housing was listed, NHL, weyayu ?

Stanbic Bank has ranged for some time but if you bought at the lows you have some value created.

31/12/2019

To succeed you need to be like a bed bug. Don't die easily. Learn to survive in the most severe conditions and keep fighting.

14/12/2019

If you're going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don't even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery--isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you'll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you're going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It's the only good fight there is.

Charles Bukowski

Charles Bukowski is an iconic writer from the 20th century known for producing some of the rawest and most honest stories and poems of recent history. His ow...

10/12/2019

How true success comes

Success in life is like throwing a dice when you need a 6. Most people through it once, twice and if they don't get a 6 they give up. You see the probability of getting a 6 in your first throw is so minimal that its just mere luck than strategy.

Life is about improving your odds to get a 6. Though you can do this by manipulating the shape of the dice but if don't have enough resources or power to control the game, you cant do this. In any game of chance this would be cheating. You will be chased out of the game. In real life this would be jail time.

So if you a common guy like us, what can you do to improve your chances of nailing a 6 more often? Simple.

You need to throw the dice multiple times. If you don't succeed on your first throw, try the second, third, forth and so on. Its not a guarantee that those who got a 6 first will finish the game first but if you give up that a sure win for them.

In real life every time you don't get a 6 causes loss of resources, shame, lost opportunities, time wasted, depression, people laughing at you and so on. It would feel safe not to try.

But when you get your 6. You smile. Those who laugh will call you a hero, a legend and as you get more success you will be able to rig the game in your favour to get more 6s.

Would you like to play now?