02/21/2026
SUMMARY: This is the longest forecast discussion I've given on Facebook in years!! A major winter storm (blizzard in many areas) will disrupt travel and many activities Sunday into Monday evening. Precipitation might begin as rain across New Jersey/NYC/Long Island early Sunday morning but should change over to all snow by early-mid afternoon. As the storm system rapidly intensifies and ‘bombs out’, intense bands of very snowfall are expected across eastern Pennsylvania, the entire New York City metro area, northern New Jersey, Long Island, and the lower Hudson Valley by early evening on Sunday. This will spread across eastern New England (CT/RI/Eastern Half of Massachusetts) Sunday Night.
DETAILS: Mesoscale models indicate that latitudinally rotating bands of very heavy snowfall will affect these areas from Sunday evening and especially Sunday Night into Monday morning. Snowfall rates as high as 2-3” per hour are likely along with the potential for some thunder snow!! In addition, this rapidly intensifying storm system will likely brings wind gusts as high as 40-50 MPH in many areas of eastern New Jersey, NYC, and Long Island that will lead to near-zero visibility and blowing and drifting snow. Computer models are quite consistent in bringing a bullseye of intense snow to coastal sections of central and southern New Jersey where I think 18-24” of snow should accumulate. A bit further north across Northern New Jersey, New York City, Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and into Rhode Island, CT, and southeastern MA, I’m expecting snowfall totals of 12-18” with some isolated higher amounts possible.
For the Capital Region (Albany), the snow will be slower to arrive and should begin between about 9:00 p.m. and Midnight Sunday Night. Snowfall amounts should be much less but still significant. There is some question as to how far north the ‘cutoff’ line gets between snow/no snow, but at this point I do think snow will get into the Albany area with totals between 3-7” due to a higher “fluff factor”.
SENSIBLE WEATHER/DISRUPTIONS: The snow should start to taper off Monday afternoon and Monday evening in all of these areas. If the scenario I believe will happen does happen, then most roads, rails, and airports will be severely impacted. Expect most if not all trains and flights to be cancelled by Sunday afternoon and into Monday morning. Do not drive on the roads unless absolutely necessary because snow plows will likely not be able to keep up with the rapid accumulations of snow Sunday evening into early Monday Morning.
EMERGENCY SERVICES: Police, fire, and EMS agencies should have stand by crews in place at their respective stations across Eastern PA, all of New Jersey, all of Long Island, the lower Hudson Valley, and into eastern New England. Arrange to have highway departments and pickup trucks with plows available upon dispatch to plow the roads and clear paths for stretchers for high priority, life-threatening emergencies where minutes count.
Note: I will not be giving any personal snowfall forecasts for your town. Good luck, and enjoy the storm.
