In analyzing and forecasting a product or service market, ElectroniCast combines several techniques:
Product consumption and production history is determined by:
• Interviews of the leading product or service users and producers ("dual track" primary research)
• Secondary research (a review of published information, including industry data, technical papers, financial reports)
This research provides a consensus of the past history of the product or service: value, price trends, application trends, leading producers and their market shares. The forecast, working from this historical data, is based on interviews of:
• Users (mainly design engineers who decide which product to specify)
• Suppliers (manufacturers, distributors, transporters)
• Researchers (industrial, government, university)
• Government agencies
The short range (1-2 years) forecast is based mainly on a consensus of supplier and user
viewpoints. If adequate historical data are available, projections also may contribute to the short-range forecast. These methods, however, are not suitable for long-range forecasts, especially for advanced-technology products. The long-range forecast is based upon the following sequence:
• The advancement of technology of the product, competing products and the end applications is forecasted based on interviews of researchers and other experts in the product field.
• The economic significance of the advanced technology products is analyzed from the following perspectives:
• Real value to user, determined by user interviews
• Displacement of competing products
• Creation of new markets
• The production of the end-use equipments or systems is forecasted.
• Production costs, and thus minimum pricing, of the product at various quantity levels are
analyzed.
• The demand forecast is derived by bottom-up, application-by-application analysis. The analysis of cost-effectiveness and understanding of the user perception of risk of the product provide insight into the rate of pe*******on of the product into the various end applications at its minimum profitable price. Input/output analysis applies the pe*******on forecasts to the end-application production forecasts to provide a cross-check of the product consumption forecast. This consumption forecast is then adjusted by forecasted imports and exports, inventory change, R&D use, and other non-production markets to derive the total production forecast. Finally, by user interviews, the production forecasts are segmented into captive (in-house) production versus available (merchant) market. The forecast data are computer-processed and the forecasts are available on CD Rom or via e-mail delivery.
