Forisk Consulting

10/28/2026

𝗖𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝘃𝘀. 𝘁𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗻: 𝘄𝗵𝗶𝗰𝗵 𝘁𝗲𝗹𝗹𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆?

In 2025, timberland EBITDDA (NCREIF) came in at 1.65% while 10-year Treasuries averaged 4.29%. That’s the widest gap in the index’s history.

But cash yield is only half the picture. Total timberland returns, combining income and appreciation, topped 10% six times in the past 25 years, most recently 12.9% in 2022. They also went negative three times (2001, 2009, 2010).

The takeaway: timberland is a real asset, subject to macro forces and interest rate cycles. It reliably generates modest cash yields, with periodic stretches of strong total returns and valuation resets. As markets shift, that history may point to attractive buying opportunities.

Brooks Mendell breaks it down in our latest blog, with excerpts from the Q4 2026 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺 (𝘍𝘙𝘘).

🔗 https://forisk.com/revisiting-total-timberland-returns-and-interest-rates/

Send a message to learn more

10/23/2026

𝗤𝟰 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘀 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲

Our Q4 2026 Housing Starts Outlook is out, and the near-term picture remains soft.

Forisk’s composite outlook now projects U.S. housing starts declining 0.7% to 1.35 million units in 2026, then another 2% to 1.32 million in 2027. That’s 36,000 fewer 2027 starts than our Q3 forecast.

Key takeaways:
• Q3 starts averaged 1.293M SAAR, down 3.9% from Q2 and 8.8% from Q1
• Only 3 of 11 published forecasts expect starts to increase in 2027
• Aging Baby Boomers are expected to cut net household formation by ~300K per year versus the past decade, which could shift some demand toward repair and remodel
• Lower immigration could reduce household formation among recent immigrants from ~570K in 2025 to 143K in 2027

Shawn Baker breaks down the drivers and the spread across forecasts in the full post: https://forisk.com/u-s-housing-starts-outlook-q4-2026-update/

This analysis comes from the Q4 2026 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺 (𝘍𝘙𝘘). To learn more about subscribing, reach out to Nick DiLuzio.

Forisk's Q4 2026 Housing Outlook anticipates declining housing growth through 2027 and reviews household formation drivers.

10/14/2026

The 𝗤𝟰 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗹𝘆 (𝗙𝗥𝗤) is coming in November, with two features for timberland investors, managers, and manufacturers:

🌲 𝗙𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝘂𝗺𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗥𝗲𝘃𝗶𝗲𝘄: With pulp mill closures and pellet subsidy changes shrinking markets for pulpwood and residuals, where will new demand come from? We screened announced projects to identify the emerging fiber consumer segments set to absorb an additional 1 million tons of wood over the next three years, and which sectors are most likely to help fill the gap.

📊 𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗦𝗶𝗹𝘃𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗦𝘂𝗿𝘃𝗲𝘆 𝗥𝗲𝘀𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘀: Our fifth survey covers 8M+ acres of private timberland from California to Montana. It shows regional differences in silviculture spending and a continued decline in pre-commercial thinning since 2017.

FRQ subscribers also get price forecasts, mill updates, timberland transaction data, on-call analyst support, and access to Forisk’s Custom Market Forecast.

Read more here:

10/09/2026

𝗣𝗲𝗹𝗹𝗲𝘁 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗥𝗶𝘀𝗸 𝗙𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀

With U.K. pellet demand forecast to fall in the near term under all three of Forisk's forecast scenarios, which U.S. South export pellet mills are most exposed?

In the Q3 2026 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺, we scored 34 export-oriented U.S. South pellet facilities on six weighted risk factors to assess closure risk:

• Cost to port
• Weighted fiber price
• Years since last CAPEX
• Average age
• Vertical integration
• Port control

Each mill was ranked into quartiles on its combined score, showing where the risk sits as the market works through a supply and demand imbalance.

Read more here: https://forisk.com/pellet-mill-risk-factor-analysis/

For full results, or to learn more about the 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩 𝘘𝘶𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘭𝘺, contact Nick DiLuzio at [email protected].

In the Q2 2026 Forisk Research Quarterly, Forisk Consulting forecasted three scenarios of U.K. wood pellet demand with demand falling in the near term in all scenarios. Based on Forisk’s pellet demand forecasts, there will be a supply and demand more…

10/01/2026

𝗪𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮'𝘀 𝗣𝘂𝗹𝗽𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗦𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗤𝟯 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲

After climbing more than 50% from 2021 to 2025, BC Interior pulplog prices have now fallen three straight quarters, down about 13% from 2025 levels. On the Coast, residual chips dropped roughly 15% in a single quarter following the Howe Sound idling.

The driver: fewer mills means fewer buyers. Northwood's pending closure, the Howe Sound idling, and the Quesnel River Pulp curtailment pulled major fiber demand out of the region in Q3 alone. Alberta is the outlier, with SPF chip prices edging up as the province's pulp mills keep running.

Relief on input costs for pulp mills, but another hit for sawmills, loggers, and truckers in an already tough year.

Forisk's Chris King breaks down the numbers from the Q3 2026 Forisk 𝘞𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘍𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘙𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸

Western Canada pulpwood and residual chip price changes over the last two years and quarterly, along with mill closures and market impacts.

09/29/2026

𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸'𝘀 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗼𝗸𝘀 𝗠𝗲𝗻𝗱𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗙𝗲𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗙𝗥𝗔'𝘀 𝗪𝗼𝗼𝗱𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗠𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗣𝗼𝗱𝗰𝗮𝘀𝘁

Brooks talks with Richard Schwab, VP of M.A. Rigoni, and host Clay Altizer about how the wood supply chain has evolved over the course of their careers, what it takes to build a career in the industry today, and the lessons they've learned along the way.

If you work anywhere along the supply chain from the stump to the mill, it's worth a listen.

Listen here: https://forestresources.org/woods-to-mill-the-fra-podcast/

Thanks to the Forest Resources Association for having us!

09/28/2026

This is your last chance to register for Forisk's Timber Market Analysis Class, which will be held virtually later this week! Registration closes at midnight tomorrow! https://hubs.ly/Q04yqP9j0

09/24/2026

𝗤𝟯 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 𝘄𝗼𝗼𝗱 𝗳𝗶𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀: 𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗨.𝗦., 𝘀𝗼𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗱𝗮.

The latest 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬 𝘞𝘰𝘰𝘥 𝘍𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳 𝘙𝘦𝘷𝘪𝘦𝘸 shows U.S. pulpwood and chip prices flat for the quarter and down 8% year-over-year, while Canadian prices fell 4% for the quarter.

What's driving it:

📉 Oversupply hit the Pacific Northwest and Coastal BC hard, with Northwest softwood chips down 13% and BC chips down 10%
📈 Fuel and transportation costs pushed prices up in the Lake States and Southeast
🌧️ Southeast buyers found the bottom in Q2, and wet weather added support

With trade uncertainty and fuel costs weighing on buyers and sellers alike, regional detail matters more than ever.

Read the full release:

09/17/2026

𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗰𝗮𝘀𝗵 𝘆𝗶𝗲𝗹𝗱 𝘃𝘀. 𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘂𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 — 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗴𝗮𝗽 𝗷𝘂𝘀𝘁 𝗵𝗶𝘁 𝗮 𝟯𝟴-𝘆𝗲𝗮𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱.

In 2025, timberland EBITDDA came in at 1.65% vs. a 4.29% average yield on 10-yr Treasuries — a 2.64-point spread, the widest since NCREIF's index began. And it's still widening: Treasuries have since topped 5%, while trailing EBITDDA fell to 1.55% as of Q2 2026.

We dug into what's driving it — including a structural buildup in Southern softwood inventory dating back to the Great Recession — in our latest blog post.

Read it here: https://forisk.com/timberlands-cash-yield-vs-u-s-treasuries-a-38-year-gut-check/

Want the full data behind it? Our Q3 2026 FRQ digs deeper into this trend. Reach out to Nick DiLuzio ([email protected]) to learn more.

09/10/2026

⏰ 𝗘𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗲𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗸’𝘀 𝗧𝗶𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗮𝘀𝘀.

National economic trends matter, but timber investment and operating decisions ultimately depend on what’s happening in local markets and wood baskets.

In his latest blog, Brooks Mendell explores how macroeconomic forces connect to local timber markets—and why understanding local supply, demand, competition, and risk is essential for informed decision-making.

These topics are also central to Forisk’s virtual Timber Market Analysis class on September 30 and October 1.

𝗥𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗯𝘆 𝗦𝗲𝗽𝘁𝗲𝗺𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲 𝘁𝗼 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗹𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

🔗TMA Class Registration: https://forisk.com/education-speaking/timber-market-analysis-class/

🔗Blog post: https://forisk.com/local-timber-markets-have-macroeconomic-exposures-too/