09/24/2025
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According to the report, for housing affordability to return to levels seen between 2016 and 2019, one of three dramatic shifts—or a combination—would have to happen:
1. Home Prices Fall
The median price of a single-family home, which in September was about $414,340, would need to drop by 38% to around $257,000. That’s a massive correction, similar to what would happen only during a major housing crash.
2. Household Incomes Rise
The median household income would need to increase by over 60%, from around $84,000 today to about $134,500. That’s far beyond typical wage growth trends, showing how out of step home prices and mortgage costs are with income growth.
3. Mortgage Rates Plummet
Current rates hover around 6.5%, but to restore affordability, they would need to fall all the way down to about 2.35%—levels last seen at the height of the pandemic’s monetary stimulus, when rates were historically low.
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