07/25/2023
NOAA Winter 23/24 Seasonal Outlook: Forecasters Offer Sneak Peek at Next Winter
TEMPERATURE
Beginning in NDJ 2023-24 through JFM 2024, predicted El Niño conditions result in enhanced chances for above-normal temperatures across the northern tier of the CONUS with an increasing coverage of EC across California, the Southwest, Southern Great Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley. During the winter 2023-24, above-normal temperatures are favored across the East based on the statistical consolidation. From MAM to A*O 2024, the temperature outlook is consistent with decadal trends .
PRECIPITATION
During NDJ 2023 to JFM 2024, the outlooks largely favor above-normal precipitation across the southern tier and below-normal precipitation across the northern tier of the CONUS. That pattern is largely aligned with ENSO impacts and model guidance. From FMA 2024 through A*O 2024, the outlooks primarily reflect the consolidation of available tools, which largely follows trends and ENSO impacts.
During A*O, trends and model guidance favor above-normal precipitation for western and northern mainland Alaska, consistent with ENSO impacts and ice edge retreat. Odds are mitigated by trends over western Alaska. During SON and OND, trends indicate a wet signal again, so coverage of above-normal precipitation is favored over a larger area. During winter 2023/2024, signals for precipitation in Alaska are weak, so much of the state has EC indicated, except the North Slope where trends favor above-normal precipitation.
Here are some of the model results:
