Houston McCafferty & Associates

Name: Houston McCafferty & Associates
Address: Camano Island, WA, 98282, US
Telephone: +12062741514

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Houston McCafferty & Associates

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We work with our clients to find solutions that work whether they are a first-time entrepreneur or have been in business for decades.

09/07/2026

Stocks were mixed last week, while oil prices surged 9.7% as tensions renewed and fighting reemerged over Middle East energy supplies.

Treasury yields generally moved higher at intermediate and longer maturities, with the five-, 10-, and 30-year yields rising 6, 5, and 2 basis points, respectively, as stronger-than-expected August employment growth increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Business activity remained expansionary but uneven. The ISM Manufacturing Index eased to 54.6% in August from 55.6% in July, and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI registered 53.9, with both indices indicating manufacturing remains in expansion territory.

Services data were stronger, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index rising to 55.4% and the S&P Global Services PMI registering 56.5.

Construction spending declined 0.5% in July, missing expectations; but factory orders rebounded 0.9% after a revised 0.2% decline in June.

The trade deficit widened sharply to $88.6 billion in July from a revised $71.2 billion in June, as imports increased and exports decreased, suggesting net trade could weigh on third-quarter growth.

Labor market data were mixed but stronger than expected in the official payroll report. The JOLTS report for July indicated openings were little changed at 7.271 million, though June openings were revised lower, suggesting labor demand remains stable but not especially strong.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%. Economics & Analytics

08/24/2026

Oil prices rose 5.7% last week to $87.06 per barrel, its second consecutive weekly increase, as sustained U.S.-Iran tensions and unresolved issues around the Strait of Hormuz continued to pressure the energy markets. Although WTI remains 17.5% lower than three months ago, the recent surge suggests that the easing in energy-driven inflation remains fragile.

Treasury yields rose across most maturities, but the movement appears to reflect more than oil-price pressure alone, as investors remained focused on fiscal sustainability, Treasury security supply, and uncertainty around the Fed’s policy action.

Housing data were mixed but generally soft. Housing starts declined to 1.239 million in July and came in well below expectations. Building permits moved higher to 1.443 million, suggesting that the future construction pipeline was stronger than current starts, though pending home sales declined 2.3% in July.

Import prices fell 0.4% in July and export prices declined 1.3%, suggesting some easing in trade-related price pressures, although non-oil import prices increased 0.4%.

Industrial production rose 0.2% in July, slightly below expectations, while capacity utilization registered 76.3%, indicating moderate but still positive industrial activity. Economics & Analytics

08/17/2026

Oil prices rose 6.8% last week to $82.40 per barrel, reversing part of the prior week’s decline as renewed uncertainty around crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep energy markets volatile. WTI is now 15.1% higher than four weeks ago, underscoring the fragility of the recent easing in energy-driven inflation pressure.

Treasury yields were split, with short-term yields declining after softer inflation data and weak labor-market signals reduced expectations for an immediate rate hike, while longer-term yields continued to rise amid lingering concerns about inflation and the Fed’s policy reaction.

Stocks were mixed, with the S&P 500 and NASDAQ edging higher while the DJIA declined. Inflation data were softer, with the CPI increasing 0.1% in July, core CPI rising 0.2%, headline PPI unchanged, and core PPI increasing 0.2%, suggesting that underlying price pressures remain contained despite the renewed rise in oil prices.

Consumer activity was weaker, however, as July retail sales declined 0.6% and retail sales excluding autos fell 0.3%. Preliminary August consumer sentiment fell to 51.0 from 55.2 in July, indicating that households remain cautious despite evidence of easing inflation.

Small business sentiment was stronger, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increasing to 99.8 in July from 97.4 in June, its highest level since August 2025. Economics & Analytics

08/10/2026

Oil prices declined 8.9% last week to $77.15 per barrel, reversing part of the sharp rebound seen in July and easing some near-term pressure on headline inflation. However, prices remain elevated, suggesting that energy markets remain vulnerable to renewed disruption.

Treasury yields fell across most maturities after the weak July employment report reduced expectations for an immediate Fed rate hike. According to the July report from the BLS, employment fell 23,000 in July, well below expectations.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.1%, driven by a drop in the participation rate. The weak payroll figure, slower wage growth (+0.1%), and a softer July ADP reading (+44K) suggest that hiring momentum has cooled substantially.

In June, JOLTS job openings totaled 7.359 million, without substantial increases in layoffs or quits. The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 55.6% in July, while the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI held at 53.9, pointing to continued expansion in manufacturing sentiment.

Factory orders, however, declined 0.3% in June and construction spending decreased 0.1%, indicating that actual order and spending activity was softer than survey data implied.

Consumer credit expanded by $14.2 billion in June, exceeding expectations, with much of the increase coming from revolving credit, suggesting households continue to rely on credit cards and other short-term borrowing to support their spending. Economics & Analytics

08/03/2026

Oil prices declined 5.2% last week to $84.67 per barrel after two consecutive weeks of sharp increases; however, prices remain 22.3% higher than four weeks ago as the war in Iran shows no signs of a permanent end.

Stocks rebounded, led by the NASDAQ, although recent concerns around AI valuations and the capex-heavy data center buildout have not fully disappeared.

Treasury yields steepened, with short-term yields declining after the FOMC held rates steady while longer-term yields continued to rise, indicating that markets remain uncertain around the Fed’s policy reaction and concerns over long-run inflation.

Inflation remains persistent and elevated, with the PCE price index up 3.7% year-over-year and the core PCE price index rising 3.3% year-over-year in June. Economics & Analytics

07/27/2026

Oil prices rose another 8.3% last week to $89.31 per barrel, following the prior week’s 15.2% increase, as renewed tensions continued to raise concerns about crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The rebound has pushed oil prices 16.7% higher than four weeks ago, suggesting that the earlier easing in energy-driven inflation pressures may be reversing.

Treasury yields rose sharply across the curve, with the one-, two-, five-, and ten-year yields increasing by at least 13 basis points, pointing to markets reassessing whether stronger economic activity and renewed commodity-price pressures could keep rates elevated for longer.

Stocks declined again, led by the NASDAQ, as concerns around AI valuations and the capex-heavy data center buildout continued to weigh on technology shares.

The week’s economic data generally reinforced the view that economic activity remains robust enough to complicate the rate outlook, even as forward-looking indicators remain uneven.

The leading economic index declined 0.2% in June, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase, as weak consumer expectations and lower building permits continued to weigh on the near-term outlook.

Initial claims fell to 187,000, however, well below expectations, while continuing claims remained below 1.8 million, suggesting layoffs remain limited. The preliminary S&P Global PMIs also pointed to continued expansion in July, with manufacturing rising to 53.8 and services registering 53.6.

New home sales increased to a 628,000 annualized pace, slightly above expectations, while mortgage applications rose 1.9%, suggesting that housing activity showed some improvement despite elevated borrowing costs.

Overall, the data showed some softness in leading indicators, but remained relatively strong elsewhere, complicating expectations for this week’s FOMC meeting. Economics & Analytics

07/22/2026

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07/20/2026

Last week, oil prices surged 15.2% last week to $82.49 per barrel as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions raised concerns about crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Treasury yields moved modestly lower across most maturities despite the oil rebound, indicating that soft June CPI and PPI reports reduced immediate rate-hike fears. Stocks sold off, led by the NASDAQ, as concerns around AI valuations and semiconductor demand resurfaced.

Economic data released last week pointed to easing inflation pressures, stronger regional manufacturing, and continued weakness in housing demand. CPI declined 0.4% in June, while core CPI was flat.

Producer prices also declined 0.3% in June, while core PPI increased 0.2%. Import prices increased 0.3% in June, but export prices fell 0.6%, the first monthly decline in export prices since May 2025, indicating some easing in global trade price pressures.

Regional manufacturing data were stronger, with the Empire State index increasing to 15.6 in July and the Philadelphia Fed index jumping to 41.4, its highest level since 2021.

Consumer activity was softer, as retail sales increased 0.2% in June and retail sales excluding autos declined 0.2%.

Housing data were mixed but generally weak, as pending home sales dropped 5.4% in June, while housing starts increased to 1.427 million and building permits declined to 1.367 million.

Consumer sentiment improved to 54.4 in preliminary July data, likely helped by lower gasoline prices, though sentiment remains historically weak. Economics & Analytics

07/06/2026

The labor market remained surprisingly resilient last week. Employers added 57,000 jobs in June, comfortably above the level needed to keep unemployment stable, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.2%. Job growth has slowed from earlier in the year, but the data continue to point toward a labor market that is cooling rather than contracting.

Economic growth expectations remain modest. S&P Global continues to estimate second-quarter GDP growth at 1.3%, reflecting slower momentum but continued expansion. Consumer spending and business investment remain positive offsets to weakness in trade and manufacturing.

The Federal Reserve remains in wait-and-see mode. While inflation risks have eased, policymakers continue to emphasize incoming data over forward guidance. Attention now shifts to the June inflation reports, which could determine whether interest rates remain unchanged or additional tightening is considered.

Manufacturing continued to expand, with the PMI remaining above the 50-point threshold for an eleventh consecutive month. However, businesses reported softer new orders, rising input costs, declining employment, and weaker optimism about the year ahead.

Housing remains constrained by elevated mortgage rates. Roughly two-thirds of outstanding mortgages carry interest rates below 5%, discouraging existing homeowners from selling. Limited inventory continues to support home prices despite relatively soft demand.

Financial markets closed the quarter on a strong note. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their strongest quarterly gains since 2020, oil prices retreated to pre-conflict levels, and Treasury yields moved higher as investors continued to price in the possibility of higher interest rates.

06/29/2026

Equities were mixed last week, with the DJIA ticking up and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 falling as a global selloff in chips and AI-related stocks outweighed falling oil prices and positive economic data.

First quarter real GDP was revised up, now rising at a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) due to strong investment in data center infrastructure and a downward revision to imports; however, first quarter consumer spending was revised down to a 0.5% SAAR, suggesting that consumers were already feeling pressure at the early stages of the war in Iran.

In the second quarter, however, consumer spending is still solid. In May, consumer spending rose 0.7% month-over-month, as did personal income. Consumers are also welcoming news that the conflict will soon be resolved, with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey rising 4.7 points to 49.5.

There are still headwinds facing consumers and the economy, particularly those related to inflation. The PCE price index accelerated to 4.1% year-over-year in May, with evidence that energy prices are passing through to core prices; the core PCE accelerated to 3.4% year-over-year, the highest in over two years.

In addition, new home sales fell 7.3% in May as affordability issues are pressuring potential home buyers. Economics & Analytics

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Camano Island, WA
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+12062741514

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