09/04/2026
Gold's 3% Pullback Tests Whether Record Central Bank Buying Can Sustain Upside
Gold slipped about 3% from its three-month high after September rate-increase odds moved above 40%. Central banks didn't flinch.
They purchased a net 289 tonnes in Q2 2026 — the strongest second quarter on record and up 62% year over year — while the average LBMA price sat 8% below the prior quarter's record. Buying spread across Poland, China, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and the Czech Republic, and exceeded gold-backed ETF outflows by more than six to one.
That demand landed against a supply base that can't respond quickly. Global mine production rose just 2% year over year to 966 tonnes, meaning official-sector buying alone absorbed roughly 30% of quarterly output.
We've built CK Gold for that environment rather than for a peak. Our March 2026 feasibility study uses a $3,250/oz base case — well below the roughly $3,800 analyst consensus — and still delivers a $632 million after-tax NPV5% and a 27% after-tax IRR.
Day-to-day moves follow the Fed. Project economics should hold up either way.
Read more on Crux Investor — article by Ryan Charles: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/golds-3-pullback-tests-whether-record-central-bank-buying-can-sustain-upside